The final week of the regular season is an important one for several SEC teams, and it all starts with Tuesday night’s action.
Let’s get right to the predictions.
Prediction Record: 65-36 (conference play + SEC/Big 12 Challenge)
Mississippi State (14-14, 5-11) at South Carolina (21-8, 11-5) – 7 PM ET, SEC Network
The Gamecocks managed to get back on track with a huge 82-55 victory over Tennessee.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State had a bit of a difference outcome in its most recent game at Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs scored a season-low 48 points and shot only 29.8% from the floor. Ben Howland’s team has lost six in a row and 10 of 12, so the growing pains are certainly present in Starkville.
Although Mississippi State played South Carolina close at home, I see this game being similar to the ones that both experienced last weekend.
Sindarius Thornwell should have another big performance as he continues his quest towards earning SEC Player of the Year honors.
Prediction: South Carolina 73, Mississippi State 58
Texas A&M at Missouri – 7 PM ET, SEC Network
They’ve been sporadic throughout the season, but the Aggies are team that we should keep an eye on heading into next week’s SEC tournament in Nashville.
If Texas A&M can win this game and play well against Kentucky to finish out the regular season, this isn’t a team I’d want to see on my side of the bracket. Billy Kennedy has a talented team that hasn’t put it all together yet, but there’s no doubting what Tyler Davis and Robert Williams are capable of.
The biggest issue for the Aggies continues to be backcourt consistency, and not having DJ Hogg definitely hurts.
And then there’s Missouri. The Tigers have been way more competitive than we thought they’d be at this stage of the season, and they nearly snapped their 34-game road losing streak at Ole Miss.
The last time this team won on the road came in a victory at Arkansas on January 28, 2014. Luckily, Kim Anderson’s squad isn’t on the road here.
However, despite Texas A&M only winning the previous meeting by three, I get the feeling that the Aggies will find a way to play better in this one.
Prediction: Texas A&M 68, Missouri 64
Vanderbilt at No. 9 Kentucky – 9 PM ET, ESPN
I’ve dissected Vandy’s NCAA tournament chances so much at this point that even I’m confused.
We can talk for days about where this team will stand if it enters Selection Sunday with 15 losses, how the committee will view the Missouri loss, etc.
But here’s what isn’t confusing: if the Commodores lose both games to end the regular season, they’re out (barring a SEC tournament title).
Given that Vandy has only won twice in Lexington since 1974, this is definitely the more challenging of the two.
The Wildcats have found some recent momentum, with the revenge wins over Tennessee and Florida being the most impressive of their six-game winning streak. Even without De’Aaron Fox, Kentucky was able to find key baskets down the stretch and dominate the glass in stopping the Gators’ winning streak.
Fox appears to be a game-time decision, but even if he doesn’t play, both Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo have proven they have what it takes to lead this team to victory.
The good news for Bryce Drew is that, while Monk and Adebayo have been stellar, the Commodores are playing their best basketball of the season. Vandy lost the previous meeting back in mid-January by six, and it’s simply a better team defensively these days.
In their last two games, the Commodores have held opponents to their lowest scoring totals of the season (Mississippi State had 48 and Tennessee had 56).
Vandy isn’t gonna hold Kentucky to under 60. However, I do think the improved defense will give the Wildcats a little trouble.
The biggest thing for Drew’s team here is to not completely lay an egg.
Should the Commodores put themselves in position for an at-large bid come next weekend, you don’t want to give the tournament committee any ammunition for keeping you out (which they already have with the loss at Missouri). There’s no shame in losing at Rupp Arena, but a 30-point loss would raise a few eyebrows.
But I don’t see that happening. Vandy has showed more toughness in recent weeks, and they should take that same mentality into this game.
Still, you just don’t pick against Kentucky at home.
Prediction: Kentucky 81, Vanderbilt 70