A year ago, it was tough to know what to expect from Vanderbilt.
Head coach Bryce Drew was something of an unknown quantity, options at point guard were limited, and there was little depth behind Luke Kornet at center. Now, Drew has the Commodore program rolling after an unexpected run to a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Having said that, the middle of the SEC is as strong as ever. If Kornet had another year of eligibility, maybe Vanderbilt would fit into the league’s top tier. But as of now, the ‘Dores have a lot of competition for a spot in the league’s top six or seven.
Here’s a look at the roster and how the season might play out.
Strengths
Vanderbilt’s biggest strength is its ridiculous stable of ball handlers. Last year, it was unclear how Drew could get enough penetration off the dribble from his team, as he had no dynamic ball handlers to speak of. Now, he’s got as many as five. Matthew Fisher-Davis, Riley LaChance, Jeff Roberson, and Joe Toye return as capable-to-great shooters to spread the floor, which is a big deal.
LaChance has proved he’s capable of playing point guard for an NCAA tournament team, and Payton Willis put together an encouraging freshman season in 2016-17. Even though Willis flashed star potential last year, he might find minutes hard to come by. Xavier transfer Larry Austin, Jr. looked great during the team’s trip to the U.S. Virgin Islands, and it looks like he offers far more scoring than he showed both at Xavier and in practice last year. Austin should be the best defender Vanderbilt has had at point guard in about 10 years, which opens up lots of new possibilities defensively.
Of course, freshmen Saben Lee and Maxwell Evans factor in too. Both project as good defenders, although Lee will need to keep his turnovers under control to get consistent minutes in this loaded backcourt. Lee and Evans could probably play rotation minutes for all but about 25-35 teams in the country, and yet there will inevitably be games where they barely see the court. If Willis struggles, Drew has other options.
The overall athleticism and quickness of the current Commodore group is unlike what fans typically saw under Kevin Stallings. Aside from LaChance, not one player who will see the court this year is a below average athlete. Will Drew play faster and even use some sort of press? Unlike with last year (due to Kornet’s presence and the thin roster), he has the players to do so.
Along those same lines, Vanderbilt’s frontcourt is full of mobile big men. While Clevon Brown is the only true big man who offers three-point range, Djery Baptiste and Ejike Obinna have quick enough feet to excel on defense. Who knows if their pattern recognition skills are caught up to their physical abilities, but both Baptiste and Obinna can become great perimeter defenders for their position in time. Teaming these guys with pesky defenders like Austin and (potentially) Lee will shut down opposing pick and rolls, if the youngsters are ready to tap into their considerable potential.
Weaknesses
While the frontcourt has potential for reasons already laid out, Vanderbilt’s centers still look like a collective liability right now. Baptiste turns 22 two days after the season opener; how much room does he have to grow? Most centers come in to college needing to adjust to the physicality and pace of the game more than anything else. Hopefully, Baptiste will show improvement in the second area. But his poor performance as a redshirt freshman despite his chiseled frame was concerning. With no skill to speak of when it comes to shooting and passing (he had one assist in 275 minutes of play last season, which I have never seen), it’s fair to question whether Baptiste has a future as a serviceable player for an NCAA at-large team.
That wouldn’t be an issue if Vanderbilt had other quality players at center, but it’s unclear whether that’s the case. Obinna did not play a big role in Vanderbilt’s four U.S. Virgin Islands games, and that suggests he has not outplayed Baptiste in practice. From what I’ve seen of Obinna on film, it’s unlikely that he’s capable of playing 20 minutes of solid basketball per game this year against Vanderbilt’s tough schedule.
I actually think Brown will end up as Drew’s best option at center, and I could see him having a productive year on both ends. In theory, he’s got enough skill to pose a threat on offense and enough rim protection ability to effectively defend SEC centers. Having said that, he hasn’t shown yet that he can put it all together.
Really, the team has a general lack of provenness at the individual level that extends beyond its centers. The team as a whole has shown it’s NCAA tournament-caliber, and we know that Fisher-Davis, Roberson and LaChance are good players. But for the ‘Dores to take a major step forward, they probably need more star power. Unless Fisher-Davis transforms from a poor defender to an actively good one, I don’t think Vanderbilt has a star on this team. While this obviously isn’t a deal-breaker, I do feel it will make it hard for VU to make it past the first round of the NCAA tournament or get into the mid-to-high-20s in wins. With Lee and others in the pipeline, however, 2017-18 might be the last year for a while that this is an issue.
Prediction
20-11 (10-8 SEC), No. 7 seed in NCAA tournament
The strengths I’ve listed here clearly outweigh the weaknesses. With Fisher-Davis, Roberson, and LaChance surrounded by plenty of supporting talent, I’d be surprised if Vanderbilt doesn’t post a winning record in SEC play. The schedule is challenging, but the ‘Dores will win their fair share of the tougher games. With few obvious and glaring problems on either side of the ball, VU is almost certainly too well-rounded to not make the NCAA tournament. How far Drew’s team ultimately goes will come down to health and the progress of Fisher-Davis and the newcomers.