Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and for those that enjoy good food and good basketball, this is the day for you.
There are a ton of intriguing matchups around the country, with several top-tier tournaments officially set to tip off.
Tennessee’s upset victory over Purdue kept me from going 5-0 yesterday, but it was a great win for the Vols and the SEC.
I only feel fully confident about a few of the six games on today’s conference slate, which could see my predictions record start to dip a little.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win each game. Score projections are purely for fun.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up) 49-7
Missouri vs. Long Beach State – 11:30 AM EST, ESPN2 (Advocare Invitational)
It’s been quite a week for the Tigers.
First came the sloppy play in a five-point win over Emporia State, and then came the news that Michael Porter Jr. would undergo back surgery and likely miss the rest of the season.
The good news is that Missouri appears to be a better overall team than Long Beach State, although if the 49ers decide to pack the paint and make the Tigers shoot a ton from outside, it may not be pretty.
Cuonzo Martin’s squad is now 7 of 47 from 3-point range in the past two games, which isn’t exactly ideal.
Long Beach State will try to push the pace here and force Mizzou’s big men to play in transition without getting in foul trouble.
While it may not be pretty, the Tigers find their rhythm and pull away late.
Prediction: Missouri 75, Long Beach State 65
Tennessee vs. No. 5 Villanova – 12:30 PM EST, ESPN (Battle 4 Atlantis)
I’ve continually talked about how the Vols might be the most underrated team in the SEC, and they took a big step toward proving me right in the win over Purdue.
Rick Barnes has a roster of guys that play hard and don’t back down from anyone, and that should give Tennessee a big boost all season long.
I thought big man Kyle Alexander took a nice step forward in going for 13 points and 11 rebounds on the day, and getting that type of paint presence from him would be huge for a team that mostly plays through Grant Williams and a plethora of solid guards.
As for the matchup with Villanova, the Wildcats weren’t overly impressive in the win over Western Kentucky, but perhaps that type of performance was needed to re-focus going forward.
Tennessee should keep this close the entire way due to its athleticism and hard-nosed mentality, but Jalen Brunson hits a few big shots down the stretch to give the Wildcats a close victory.
Prediction: Villanova 71, Tennessee 65
Vanderbilt vs. Virginia – 4 PM EST, ESPNU (NIT Season Tip-Off, Game Preview)
Bryce Drew’s team came close to pulling off a huge victory over No. 10 USC, but the Commodores couldn’t get enough stops in overtime to get the win.
However, Matthew Fisher-Davis put on a show in scoring 31 points and adding 11 rebounds, and that type of complete performance from the senior guard is what could propel him to an All-SEC season.
But Fisher-Davis and the rest of the Vandy squad will need to be effective on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes to take down Virginia.
The Cavaliers, as always, will strive for efficiency on offense and defense, and that’s where Vanderbilt must stay disciplined in enduring lengthy possessions.
And while the Commodores had no trouble scoring against USC, there are still some concerns about the flow of the halfcourt offense, which is why they’ll need to take advantage of any opportunities in transition.
Vandy’s strong suit is shooting the ball, and I just don’t think the Cavaliers are going to allow enough open opportunities to take advantage of that.
Virginia grinds out the win in a low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Virginia 65, Vanderbilt 60
Arkansas vs. Oklahoma – 5 PM EST, ESPN2 (PK80)
The Hogs have played three solid opponents in Samford, Bucknell, and Fresno State, which was by design since Mike Anderson wanted his team to be tested prior to the PK80.
Of course, it’s the play of freshman center Daniel Gafford that has really stood out thus far. Gafford has improved each game, and his most recent performance saw him explode for 25 points, eight rebounds, and three blocks.
Arkansas has also gotten the usual greatness from seniors Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford, who are both scoring at will and shooting 50 percent from the 3-point line.
Meanwhile, the Sooners have scored 108 points in each of their first two games, which may not mean a ton since the opponents were Nebraska Omaha and Ball State.
Still, Lon Krueger has a balanced roster that’s led by Trae Young and Khadeem Lattin, and those two will certainly impact this game in a big way.
This is a coin flip type of game, and I really have no idea how this one unfolds since it’s on a neutral court.
To me, Gafford’s play is what will decide whether the Razorbacks can pack enough punch to take down the Sooners.
I think he plays well, and Arkansas finds a way turn Oklahoma over enough in the stretch run to earn the victory.
Prediction: Arkansas 81, Oklahoma 79
No. 7 Florida vs. Stanford – 10 PM EST, ESPN2 (PK80, Game Preview)
The Gators are off to a hot start, thanks in large part to transfers Egor Koulechov and Jalen Hudson.
Koulechov is averaging 20 points per game while Hudson is adding 18.3 per game.
The most interesting part of it all? KeVaughn Allen, who is largely considered an SEC Player of the Year candidate, is currently third on the team in scoring.
That shows how dangerous this Florida team could be this season, and the matchup with Stanford looks better than it did a month ago.
The Cardinal simply haven’t found their way thus far in losing home games to Eastern Washington and North Carolina (by 24 points).
The matchup in the paint will be something to keep an eye on, as Stanford’s front line is more experienced.
But while I think this thing may be close the entire way, it’s hard to pick against the depth and versatility of the Gators.
Prediction: Florida 80, Stanford 72
Georgia vs. Cal State Fullerton – 10:30 PM EST, ESPNews
Consistent guard play is still what’s holding Georgia back from fully reaching its potential.
The Bulldogs enter ranked 337th nationally in turning it over 18.7 times per game. What makes that stat even worse is that Georgia’s toughest opponent thus far has been Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
Fortunately for Mark Fox and company, Thursday’s opponent isn’t much better in that category. The Titans are committing 17 turnovers per game, which all but guarantees that this one could get ugly.
And if it’s somehow close in the final minutes? Cal State Fullerton is the worst free throw shooting team in the country in shooting 49.2 percent from the charity stripe.
So while there are a lot of less than stellar stats heading into this one, Georgia is a much better defensive team and has Yante Maten on its roster.
That’s enough to score the win.
Prediction: Georgia 79, Cal State Fullerton 67
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