While Thursday provided plenty of exciting action around college basketball, Friday’s games may be even more intriguing.
There are nine SEC teams in action, with several facing their toughest opponent of the season thus far.
I went a perfect 6-0 in yesterday’s picks, which was a bit surprising given the unpredictable nature of neutral court games.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are purely for fun.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 55-7
Missouri vs. St. John’s – 11 AM EST, ESPNews (Advocare Invitational)
The Tigers held nothing back yesterday in a dominant 37-point win over Long Beach State, which included going 10 of 24 from 3-point range after shooting just 7 of 47 from beyond the arc in the previous two games.
And while that victory gave this team a much-needed confidence boost after struggling the past week, Mizzou faces a tougher task in round two.
St. John’s scored an impressive win over a vastly improved Oregon State squad and is now 5-0 to start the year.
A couple of things to watch for:
- St. John’s is ranked 15th in the country in forcing 19.8 turnovers per game while Missouri is ranked 282nd in committing 16 turnovers per game
- Missouri is 32nd nationally in rebounding margin (+10.5)
Like many neutral court games, this one is tough to predict.
However, I think the Tigers find a way to slow the tempo and use their size to pull out the victory.
Prediction: Missouri 70, St. John’s 66
No. 25 Alabama vs. BYU – 2:30 PM EST, Facebook Live (Barclays Center Classic, Game Preview)
Collin Sexton put on a show in the Crimson Tide’s narrow home win over UT-Arlington on Tuesday, with the star freshman scoring 29 points.
Alabama also shot a bit better from the free throw line in shooting 62.5 percent, which is still a notch above the Tide’s 54.5 percent shooting on the year (347th nationally).
As for BYU, the Cougars are 3-1, with the only loss coming by 14 at home to that aforementioned UTA squad.
BYU is 315th nationally in allowing opponents to shoot 40.7 percent from the 3-point line, and because Alabama boasts several players that can knock down perimeter shots consistently, that could be an issue.
I think Avery Johnson’s squad controls the glass and finds enough open shots to win it.
Prediction: Alabama 82, BYU 70
Tennessee vs. NC State – 2:30 PM EST, ESPN2 (Battle 4 Atlantis)
We’ve seen what Tennessee is capable of in recent games, and now it’s just a matter of how much gas the Vols have left in the tank.
Meanwhile, NC State had a letdown of its own after scoring a huge win over Arizona, which makes this matchup all the more interesting.
Both teams rebound well on the offensive glass, so second chance opportunities will play and important role here.
The Wolfpack are 10th in the nation in forcing 20.4 turnovers per contest, which is something to keep an eye on considering that the Vols have had a tendency to be careless with the ball in key situations.
However, I just get a sense that Tennessee is a better overall team and will keep up its theme of forcing opponents into bad shots (25th nationally in FG percentage defense).
Prediction: Tennessee 71, NC State 68
Arkansas vs. No. 9 North Carolina – 3:30 PM EST, ESPN
Here’s the rematch we’ve all been waiting for, as Arkansas has revenge on its mind after losing to North Carolina in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Both teams are scoring a lot of points (Arkansas at 93.0 ppg and North Carolina at 91.7 ppg), which should make this is must-see TV for those that love scoring. One of the reasons why so many points are being scored is that both teams are forcing turnovers and converting that into easy buckets.
This feels like a back and forth game the entire way, with each team fielding a few players that are capable of taking over at any time.
It’s easy to look at the national rankings here and go with the Tar Heels, but the Razorbacks have been focused on this game for months, which could either lead to a big performance or a big letdown.
I tend to lean towards the first part of that equation.
Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford come out on fire and big man Daniel Gafford puts in another well-rounded performance to give the Hogs the win.
Prediction: Arkansas 87, North Carolina 85
Winthrop at Auburn – 7 PM EST, SEC Network
The Tigers are still without Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy, but perhaps Bruce Pearl’s squad can build off going 2-1 in the Charleston Classic.
Meanwhile, Xavier Cooks (15.3 ppg, 9.0 rpg) is off to a fast start and will need to be just as consistent on the glass against an Auburn team that is extremely athletic.
If there’s concern for Pearl in company, it’s how well Winthrop shoots the three. The Eagles are ninth in the nation in 3-point FG percentage in shooting 45.3 percent per game, and guarding the perimeter hasn’t exactly been Auburn’s strong suit.
But even with that in mind, I think the Tigers control the lane and win a high-scoring affair.
Prediction: Auburn 92, Winthrop 78
Georgia vs. San Diego State – 7 PM EST, ESPN2
Georgia is sitting here at 4-0, and yet it feels like this team is 1-3.
The Bulldogs haven’t looked impressive since the season-opening win over Bryant, and have since struggled mightily in wins over USC Upstate, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and Cal State Fullerton.
Yante Maten is absolutely the real deal in already averaging 19.3 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, but this team simply has to shoot the ball better and have more steady guard play to win in the SEC this season.
In a game like this, I refer to who takes care of the ball better.
San Diego State turns it over 11.8 times per game (63rd nationally) while Georgia turns it over 18.7 times per game (342nd nationally).
The Aztecs play good enough defense to hand the Bulldogs their first loss.
Prediction: San Diego State 69, Georgia 63
Pepperdine at No. 16 Texas A&M – 9 PM EST, SEC Network
As if Texas A&M wasn’t already good enough, now it gets projected starting guard J.J. Caldwell back from suspension.
Pepperdine has really struggled on the defensive end of the floor, and that makes it hard to see this one going well for the Waves.
Caldwell plays well in his first official game with the Aggies, and Robert Williams and Tyler Davis are dominant in the paint to give Texas A&M a blowout win.
Prediction: Texas A&M 94, Pepperdine 62
Vanderbilt vs. No. 20 Seton Hall – 9:45 PM EST, ESPNews
The Commodores had about as bad of a performance as you could have in the loss to Virginia.
While the final score was 68-42, the game never felt that close, as the Cavaliers controlled the game on both sides of the court.
If there’s a tiny positive to take away from that experience, it’s that Virginia typically makes a lot of teams look silly due to the style of play. But it was still a pretty brutal result for Bryce Drew’s squad.
And now the Commodores must set their focus on a Seton Hall team that is solid on defense and boasts several big-time offensive threats.
Vandy has yet to play all that well this season aside from the overtime loss to USC, and the physicality of the Pirates may cause even more problems on offense for the Commodores.
Seton Hall gets the win.
Prediction: Seton Hall 76, Vanderbilt 67
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 17 Gonzaga – 11:30 PM EST, ESPN2
Even before the season started, I said that I felt like Florida was the SEC team best equipped to make a Final Four run.
Thus far, the Gators haven’t proved me wrong.
The huge victory over Stanford was incredible in that Florida scored at least 108 points for the third time in four games this season, but this is also worth remembering: The Gators did it without Kevarrius Hayes and John Egbunu, who are arguably the two best big men on the roster.
That just shows you how much depth Mike White has on this roster.
As for the opponent, the Zags crushed Ohio State and appear to be just fine after losing key players from last season’s national runner-up squad.
Gonzaga is holding opponents to 35 percent shooting from the floor, while Florida is shooting a whopping 51.3 percent.
Make sure you get a nap in at some point this afternoon because you absolutely don’t want to miss this one.
This is essentially a coin flip on a neutral court, but it appears that the Gators are on a mission right now.
When KeVaughn Allen, a potential SEC Player of the Year candidate, is your third leading scorer four games into the season, you’ve got some things going for you.
I’ll take the Gators in a thriller.
Prediction: Florida 84, Gonzaga 81
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