Yesterday was all about football, but the one SEC basketball game that took place certainly garnered a lot of attention.
Alabama, with just three players on the court for the final 11 minutes of the game, nearly took down Minnesota in Brooklyn.
I’m still not quite sure what I watched.
What I am sure of is that the Minnesota victory gave me another notch in the predictions win column, but today’s loaded lineup offers way more unpredictability. I can’t say that I feel fully confident about any of these picks, except for maybe the game taking place in Lexington.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win each game. Score projects are purely for my amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 64-8
Jacksonville State at Mississippi State – 3 PM EST, SEC Network+
This is Mississippi State’s toughest game of the season thus far, and the Bulldogs are still four games away from hitting the road for a December 12 tilt at Cincinnati.
The Gamecocks are more experienced and will attempt to slow the pace to prevent Mississippi State from running up and down the floor.
Ray Harper will have Jacksonville State prepared for the challenge since this team has already won road games at Richmond and Chattanooga. Plus, the Gamecocks are averaging 86.6 points per game and have several outstanding offensive weapons in Malcolm Drumwright (16.0 ppg), Jamall Gregory (13.0 ppg), and Norbertas Giga (11.6 ppg).
I honestly am not sure what we get from this game, as the Bulldogs’ lack of elite competition thus far makes it hard to know just how good they are.
I’ll take Mississippi State, but have a hunch that we may see an upset here.
Prediction: Mississippi State 75, Jacksonville State 73
Arkansas vs. UConn – 3 PM EST, ESPN (PK80)
Daryl Macon is questionable for this game, which makes it a difficult game to project.
Macon and Jaylen Barford are the two most important pieces of the puzzle for the Hogs, so it’s essential to have them both on the court.
My guess is that Macon doesn’t play much even if he does suit up.
Both teams are playing good defense, but the Huskies struggle to shoot the ball from outside (297th nationally at 29.5 percent from 3-point land) and can’t match Arkansas’s experience.
Even with Macon hurt, I’ll take Mike Anderson’s squad.
Prediction: Arkansas 76, UConn 71
Georgia vs. No. 21 Saint Mary’s – 5 PM EST, ESPNU (Wooden Legacy)
I simply cannot figure out this Georgia team right now, as the Bulldogs really haven’t played well this season aside from a blowout victory over Bryant in the season opener.
Turnovers remain a problem, although Turtle Jackson played very well in the loss to San Diego State in scoring 17 points and adding four assists without a single turnover.
But beyond Yante Maten, is there enough consistency to be an NCAA Tournament team? That’s the big question.
If there’s a bright spot for Georgia, it’s that Saint Mary’s isn’t exactly turning people over at a rapid rate. But what the Gaels do well is take care of the ball, as they rank second nationally with only 8.2 turnovers per game.
Losing to Washington State was a bit of a head-scratcher, but I think Saint Mary’s rebounds against a Georgia team that’s still trying to find its way.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s 78, Georgia 74
UIC at No. 8 Kentucky – 6 PM EST, SEC Network
These two have had a common opponent, as the Wildcats took down Fort Wayne by 19 while the Flames lost by 16 at home.
Kentucky continues to start slow and out-talent teams in the second half, which may be the case once again in this one.
UIC hasn’t been a great offensive team thus far in terms of efficiency, and John Calipari’s squad should be able to use its length on the defensive end to wreak havoc on the Flames.
Prediction: Kentucky 85, UIC 65
Missouri vs. No. 23 West Virginia – 9:30 PM EST, ESPN2 (Advocare Invitational)
As with any game involving the Mountaineers, turnovers will decide who wins the game.
The problem for the Tigers is that they haven’t been great at protecting the rock this season in averaging 15.3 turnovers per game (262nd nationally), and that is a glaring statistic in a game like this one.
Mizzou may be able to use its size to at least grab extra opportunities on the offensive end, but considering that West Virginia is fourth in the country with 17 offensive rebounds per game, keeping the Mountaineers off the glass will be just as important.
With two of the Tigers’ biggest weaknesses being shooting and ball handling, it makes it tough to pick them.
Prediction: West Virginia 74, Missouri 67
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 10 USC – 10 PM EST, Pac-12 Network
Here’s a spicy non-tournament game in Los Angeles, as both teams have a case for being ranked in the Top 10 when the AP poll rolls out on Monday.
Both teams have a ton of playmakers, although I do think the Aggies have more depth due to getting J.J. Caldwell back and already having several other freshmen that are playing well.
However, in what has been a common theme with today’s picks, Texas A&M has to be sure with the ball. Turnovers have still been somewhat of an issue at times, and the Trojans have forced 16.5 per game.
If USC can speed the game up and not allow Robert Williams and Tyler Davis to methodically work their magic in the lane, it will work in the Trojans’ favor.
I’d probably feel better about the Aggies in this spot if this was on a neutral court, and the home court advantage gives USC a narrow victory.
Prediction: USC 82, Texas A&M 79
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 1 Duke – 10:30 PM EST, ESPN (PK80)
The main event of the day figures to be one of the best games we’ve seen in college basketball this season.
Of course, it probably won’t be the best game we’ve seen, as Florida and Gonzaga notched that honor in the double overtime thriller on Friday.
And that’s where we start in looking at this game: Was that game such a physical and emotional roller-coaster that the Gators won’t have enough left for the top-ranked team in the country?
I think that’s a fair question.
Another question for Florida is the status of Chris Chiozza. All indications are that he’s going to play, but his effectiveness will be worth watching.
Duke has been stellar on the offensive end of the court this season, and Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter Jr. give the Blue Devils a size advantage in the paint that will be difficult for Mike White’s team to deal with.
But seeing Florida win a game like that against Gonzaga with Egor Koulechov playing what’ll probably be his worst game of the season made me realize how talented and deep this Gators’ roster is overall.
Based on what we’ve seen thus far around the country, I don’t think it’s a stretch to consider that these could be the two best teams in college basketball.
And while this should be another excellent game, and I have my questions about Florida stopping Duke’s frontcourt, I’m going to take the Gators to notch a thrilling victory.
If I’m right and that happens, they should be the No. 1 team in the country.
Prediction: Florida 83, Duke 82
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