For the 34th straight season, the rivalry game known as “Braggin Rights” will take place at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Missouri Tigers.
The Illini have won four straight in the series and will look to keep that streak going despite some struggles early in the season.
However, under first-year head coach Cuonzo Martin, Missouri has gotten off to their best start since the 2013-14 season, and are looking to win the most games in a single season since that season with a win over the Fighting Illini on Saturday.
The Tigers own wins over Iowa State, Wagner, Emporia State, Long Beach State, St. John’s, Central Florida, Miami (OH), Green Bay, North Florida, and Stephen F. Austin. Their two losses are to West Virginia and Utah.
The Illini, under first-year head coach Brad Underwood, currently sit at 8-5 and are playing their first game in seven days, as their finals week has been going on for the past week.
They have wins over the likes of Southern, Tennessee-Martin, DePaul, Marshall, Augustana (IL), North Carolina Central, Austin Peay, and Longwood, with losses to Big 10 foes Northwestern and Maryland, as well as Wake Forest, UNLV, and New Mexico State.
Let’s take a look at the players to watch, the keys to victory for both sides, and a score prediction for Saturday’s rivalry tilt in St. Louis.
Players to Watch
Kassius Robertson (Missouri)
The Canisius graduate transfer guard has been nothing short of spectacular for the Tigers this year, scoring double-figures in all but two games as the starting point guard and lead ball handler.
Robertson’s advanced shooting numbers are also elite, posting a 60.5 percent true shooting percentage while taking 68.3 percent of his attempts from behind the arc.
Combine that shooting impact with the 2.7 assists per game and an assist rate of 15 percent and the full offensive package that Robertson provides as a primary ball handler and distributor is properly illustrated for the Tigers.
In this matchup, it will be important for Robertson to get going early and often for the Tigers, both in his scoring and in distributing to Jordan Barnett, Cullen VanLeer, Kevin Puryear, and Jeremiah Tilmon to provide the rest of the scoring punch that Missouri boasts.
Michael Finke (Illinois)
The center on the Illini roster has been providing solid production on both ends of the floor this season as a junior, averaging 11.8 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, which are good for third and first on the team, respectively.
Finke, at 6-11, is also a capable three-point shooter, making 34.6 percent of his 3-pointers on four attempts per game and solid efficiency numbers.
His matchup with Tilmon on the block will be one to watch, as both players have had solid seasons in their own rights, but look for Finke to have a solid performance against the Tigers’ frontline.
How Missouri Can Win
The Tigers are one of the slower tempo teams in the country (295th in KenPom tempo rankings), running a lot of half-court sets to get their offensive output.
Meanwhile, Illinois is one of the fastest teams in college basketball (35th), so the Tigers need to control the tempo of the game to play slower and find efficient looks at the basket.
If Missouri can keep this game to a relative crawl and play in the half-court primarily, they will be in a good position to win the game comfortably.
If not, the Illini will have a great chance to pull the upset on the Tigers.
How Illinois Can Win
The Illini need to chase the Missouri shooters off of the 3-point line in order to give themselves a good opportunity to win this game.
The Tigers have made the most 3-point field goals in the SEC at 118, so it’s obvious that a big part of their strategy is shooting a high volume of shots from long distance.
The Illini are an average 3-point defensive team, so making those shots a defensive priority is the priority for Illinois to give themselves a chance to win the game.
Prediction
Simply put, the Tigers are a better team than the Illini in most aspects of this matchup, and that advantage should manifest in the actual game.
If the Illini are able to force the Tigers into a low percentage from three and force turnovers in order to play in the fast break, they certainly have a chance to pull the upset and win their fifth straight game in this rivalry.
However, I’ll go with the Tigers to win this game comfortably.
Prediction: Missouri 81, Illinois 68