SEC Basketball Predictions: Florida/Arkansas, Alabama/Auburn, and more

By
Blake Lovell
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The theme of Tuesday’s games in the SEC was fouls, as we saw 59 fouls and 74 free throws in the Kentucky/South Carolina game in Columbia.

However, the theme of Wednesday’s action in the league could be close games. The six teams that are playing are all currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament, which should make every game highly competitive.

And as you’ve noticed, it’s getting harder and harder to accurately project how things will play out in the conference.

As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.

Let’s get to the picks.

Season Predictions Record (straight up): 163-42

Arkansas (12-5, 2-3) at Florida (12-5, 4-1) – 7 PM EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)

The Razorbacks have lost all three true road games this season, which isn’t a stat that will make you confident in Arkansas’s ability to win in Gainesville for the first time since 1995.

But perhaps snapping a three-game losing streak with a win over Missouri last Saturday will give the Hogs a little momentum against a Florida team that struggled at Ole Miss.

The Gators will likely want that loss in Oxford back, but as it typically the case in the SEC, they’ll have a chance to use their home court to get back on track.

Arkansas found a way to win against Mizzou without a great game from Daryl Macon, and that will be what decides the ceiling for this team the rest of the way. Anton Beard and Darious Hall both had double-digit scoring efforts in that game to go along with the usual outputs from Jaylen Barford and Daniel Gafford.

For the Hogs to be an elite team, there will have to be more consistency from players not named Macon, Barford, or Gafford.

However, the challenge that they face here are not only the road woes, but the improvement of Florida’s frontcourt play. Keith Stone continues to impress, and he should prove to be a big asset for the Gators in this one.

It’s hard to pick against Mike White’s team in this spot.

Prediction: Florida 77, Arkansas 70

No. 17 Auburn (16-1, 4-0) at Alabama (11-6, 3-2) – 7 PM EST, SEC Network

UPDATE: Alabama guard Collin Sexton has been ruled out due to an abdominal injury. Donta Hall is now expected to play despite a wrist injury.

This is one of the most anticipated games in a long time between these two programs, and I’d be shocked if we get anything less than a close game from start to finish.

Alabama’s back-to-back wins over South Carolina and LSU have eases some concerns for now, but as we’ve seen many times this season, this team still has a tendency to hit you with a poor performance out of nowhere.

Of course, Alabama fans are hoping that they don’t see one of those types of performances against their most hated rival, who also happens to be the best team in the SEC right now.

Winning on the road is never easy, but Auburn has done that in four traditionally difficult environments this season. The Tigers have wins at Dayton, Murray State, Tennessee, and Mississippi State, and the most impressive part is that those four teams are a combined 36-4 at home against non-Auburn competition.

Let that stat sink in for a second.

Before you let it sink in too far, it’s also worth remembering that this particular game is a different animal.

This isn’t just a game that’ll be played at a difficult venue. Instead, it’s a rivalry game where a lot is on the line for both teams.

A loss by Auburn would snap the streak and certainly be deflating, but the Tigers would still be in fine shape.

A loss by Alabama would be deflating as well due to missing out on another quality win opportunity, but there are still enough left on the schedule for the Tide to make the NCAA Tournament.

But if you’re an Alabama or Auburn fan, you’re not thinking about the long-term ramifications. You just want to win this game.

I’ve used the term “toss-up” a lot this season, but here’s your definition of it. I know all about the in-depth stats, Auburn’s road record, and all that jazz. However, let’s throw it all out the window, because those may not matter.

This should be a fight to the finish, and it’s hard to know what to expect.

If there’s something I do feel certain about, it’s that Collin Sexton will rise to the occasion. Donta Hall remains out due to injury, which is significant considering how well Auburn has rebounded this season. So, it’s essential that the Alabama backcourt play well in case there are any frontcourt issues with Hall’s absence.

Sexton was made for games like this, and his energy and playmaking ability should give Alabama a big boost on both sides of the court.

But I keep going back to what I’ve said for weeks about Auburn: this is one of the deepest teams in the country, and the nine players that are averaging 13 minutes or more are all making consistent contributions.

So, I’m going to revert back to the same phrase I used last weekend when the Tigers traveled to Starkville, which is courtesy of a wise philosopher named Ric Flair:

“To be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man.”

Right now, Auburn is the man.

And I’ve gotta see someone beat the Tigers before I’m willing to pick against them in this type of game.

Prediction: Auburn 80, Alabama 79

No. 21 Tennessee (12-4, 3-2) at Missouri (12-5, 2-2) – 9 PM EST, SEC Network

Speaking of games that feel like toss-ups, here’s another one of those.

Tennessee has responded beautifully to its 0-2 start in league play by winning three straight, and two of those wins included pulling away down the stretch to beat what appeared to be the league’s top two teams entering the new year in Texas A&M and Kentucky.

But the Vols are another team that has found success away from home this season. Rick Barnes’ squad has a 5-2 record in road/neutral games, so that’s worth noting entering this matchup.

Meanwhile, Missouri has been up and down since a one-point win over Stephen F. Austin on December 19. The Tigers are 2-3 since that game, which has included close defeats to Florida and Arkansas.

The deciding factor in this one feels pretty simple: Missouri ranks 261st nationally with 14.5 turnovers per game, while Tennessee is 49th in forcing nearly 16 per contest.

Another stat worth paying attention to is 3-point shooting.

Both teams have consistently ranked around the top-40 nationally in that category, and Missouri’s Kassius Robertson continues to be the most dangerous of the group after going 6 of 11 from beyond the arc in the loss at Arkansas.

Jordan Barnett also ranks in the top six in the SEC in 3-point field goal percentage, with the senior shooting 41.6 percent.

Again, like the other two games on the schedule, this could go either way.

The Vols are of the toughest teams in the country to prepare for, simply because they have a versatile roster that goes out and outworks people. That all starts with Grant Williams, who is already making his case as a legit SEC Player of the Year candidate.

And then there’s the size of Missouri, which may give Cuonzo Martin’s team a nice advantage in the paint. This won’t be the first time that Tennessee has been the smaller team on the court, but I get a sense that the Tigers’ bigs could rise to the challenge in this matchup.

While I didn’t do it in the Alabama/Auburn game, I’m going to go with my usual choice of leaning toward the home team when both squads feel very similar.

Prediction: Missouri 71, Tennessee 69

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