Alabama will look to extend its winning streak to four games when it hosts Mississippi State on Saturday.
The game will tip off at 7:30 PM CST and be broadcast on the SEC Network.
Alabama comes into the matchup riding high after a season-changing victory against arch-rival Auburn.
Ben Howland’s Mississippi State squad dominated in an important win too, ending a three-game league skid with an 80-62 home victory over Vanderbilt.
One of these teams will leave Coleman Coliseum with a different result on Saturday night.
Here’s what the Crimson Tide need to do to make sure it’s not them.
Keys to Victory
Who runs the point?
Avery Johnson mentioned that he may have an update on Friday regarding Collin Sexton’s availability to play against Mississippi State.
For now, I assume he is doubtful to play at best. So, who does the Tide turn to at the point?
Dazon Ingram controlled the ball for most of the game against Auburn. It’s a position that he’s familiar with, having been the primary point guard last season as a freshman. Against the Tigers, Ingram finished the game with five turnovers to go along with two assists. That’s less than ideal for a point guard.
Avery Johnson Jr. has served as the backup point guard all season, providing energy and scoring lift in spot minutes while Sexton rests. Johnson can be effective in this role, using a crafty floater and scoop shot game to get buckets.
However, heavy on-ball pressure from quick guards has given him fits. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Howland employ some of that pressure when he sees Johnson Jr. come in as the primary ball-handler.
Alabama’s only other option is freshman wing Herbert Jones.
Jones ran the point for Alabama in its most crucial late game possessions against Auburn. He used his length and some hesitation moves to create baskets around the rim, including the game-sealer—a driving and-1 layup with less than a minute remaining.
Jones was the primary point guard on his state-champion high school team last year and indicated he feels very comfortable there still.
Stop Quinndary Weatherspoon
Weatherspoon, the Mississippi State junior guard, is one of the top scorers in the league at 15.6 per game in conference play.
Last year, Avery Johnson employed a very aggressive plan to stop Weatherspoon, face-guarding him for the entire game.
Riley Norris was primarily tasked with handling Weatherspoon, denying him the ball no matter where he was on the floor. Norris had no help responsibilities. Even if other players blew by their man for a layup, Norris was to remain looking at Weatherspoon, denying him the ball.
Since Mississippi State had a lack of other creators on offense, this defensive plan worked like a charm as Alabama cruised to an easy three-game sweep of the Bulldogs last season.
Now however, Mississippi State has developed into a team with more scoring punch. Both Weatherspoon’s brother, Nick, and big man Aric Holman have had 22-point games in league play.
The Tide may not have to face-guard Weatherspoon in this game though since they have a lock-down defender now.
Herbert Jones has managed to frustrate some of the league’s top offensive players. Even at 6’8, Jones still maintains the lateral quickness to guard everyone from point guards to power forwards.
On Wednesday against Auburn, Jones was tasked with slowing both high-scoring guards Jared Harper and Bryce Brown at various times, both of whom finished the game below their season averages in points.
There is one problem with guarding the opposing team’s best offensive player however. Because that player typically has the ball in their hands most often, there are more opportunities to earn fouls.
Jones learned this the hard way against Auburn, fouling out in the last 30 crucial seconds as Alabama tried to seal the game.
Though Jones is especially good at drawing fouls against the offense—he already owns the Alabama record for most charges taken in a season—he will need to be careful about drawing defensive fouls when guarding a crafty and experienced player like Weatherspoon.
Pack it in
Mississippi State is among the worst 3-point shooting percentage teams in college basketball (340th nationally).
However, the Bulldogs make up for that deficiency by being one of the nation’s elite teams in 2-point shooting percentage (18th nationally).
Naturally, because Mississippi State takes a higher volume of attempts around the basket, you might expect that they shoot and make a ton of free throws.
Neither one of those assumptions is true.
The Bulldogs shoot around the national average of free throws per field goal attempt, and when they do shoot them, they only make an abysmal 65 percent of them.
If I’m Avery Johnson, the defensive game plan starts and ends with packing the paint. Practically, this could mean Alabama plays a little bit more of its matchup zone than normal.
When Alabama does play man-to-man, it should aggressively double-down on all inside touches, forcing the ball back out to the 3-point line.
Unfortunately for the Tide though, some of the worst 3-point shooting teams that they have faced have been abnormally successful against them.
Vanderbilt, 289th nationally, shot 40 percent and made 10 from long range. Georgia, 302nd nationally, made nine.
If the Bulldogs hope to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, they better hope they can replicate those abnormal numbers.