Eight SEC teams enter the week ranked in the top 40 in the RPI, and with the Big 12/SEC Challenge set to take place on Saturday, several other teams could have a chance to rise up the ladder.
But there are important conference games on tap before Saturday’s action, which will start on Tuesday with five compelling matchups.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
And once again, I’ve included a companion podcast below with extended thoughts on each game.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 171-44
Arkansas (13-6, 3-4) at Georgia (12-6, 3-4) – 6:30 PM EST, SEC Network
The Razorbacks are 0-4 in true road games this season, so if they want to have a shot at being a top five team in the league, they’ve gotta find a way to win away from Bud Walton Arena.
This game is a clash of styles, as Georgia will want to make this is a halfcourt grind while Arkansas looks to push the tempo.
One of the Hogs’ strengths this season has been 3-point shooting (28th nationally at 39.6 percent), but the Bulldogs do an excellent job of keep teams frustrated in that area as they are 22nd in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage defense (30.8 percent). Even more impressive is that Mark Fox’s team leads all Power 5 schools in conference play in field goal percentage defense by allowing teams to shoot just 35.8 percent thus far.
As I mentioned in the podcast, Georgia’s key to success here is to be physical inside and use the size advantage to overwhelm Daniel Gafford and company. For Arkansas, it simply has to have production beyond the big three of Gafford, Daryl Macon, and Jaylen Barford.
It’s difficult to trust either one of these teams at the moment, especially when you consider that this game fields the SEC’s least efficient offensive team (Georgia) against the SEC’s least efficient defensive team (Arkansas).
I’ll take the Razorbacks to score their first road win.
Prediction: Arkansas 73, Georgia 70
Vanderbilt (7-12, 2-5) at No. 22 Tennessee (13-5, 4-3) – 7 PM EST, ESPNU
The first meeting of the season between these two teams featured lots of scoring and a career-night from Tennessee forward Grant Williams.
The sophomore went off for 37 points and completely took over the game to give the Vols the comeback victory in Nashville. And while he may not put up that many points in this one, he’ll be just as important to Tennessee’s success.
Vanderbilt’s lack of inside production may once again be a problem here, as Williams and Admiral Schofield combined for 59 of the Vols’ points in the previous matchup. Jeff Roberson should be his usual consistent self for the Commodores, but he’ll need help both defensive and on the glass.
What Vanderbilt needs to win this game is another solid shooting effort from Riley LaChance (26 points in the win over LSU) and an aggressive Saben Lee (changed the game against the Tigers with his aggressiveness and defense).
The Commodores have won three straight in Knoxville, but it’s going to be difficult to keep that streak going.
Prediction: Tennessee 74, Vanderbilt 67
Alabama (13-6, 5-2) at Ole Miss (10-9, 3-4) – 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network (Game Preview)
Collin Sexton will be a game-time decision for the Crimson Tide, but Alabama has found a groove as of late even with the star freshman sidelined.
There have been stretches during the season where Alabama’s offense has seemingly lacked movement, with players sometimes deferring to Sexton to be the aggressor. But with him out of action, the Tide have seen different players step up and take more initiative on the offensive end of the floor.
Of course, it’s helped that Braxton Key has started to find a rhythm. He’s played his best game of the season in the win over Mississippi State, and his versatility will continue to be a big asset going forward.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss has played better than its 1-3 record in the past four games may indicate. Like other teams around the league, the Rebels’ biggest problems have come on the road. Andy Kennedy’s squad is 0-4 away from home in SEC play, but 3-0 at The Pavilion.
Alabama has been rolling, but this feels like a difficult spot given Ole Miss’ improved play at home. The Rebels are more experienced, and I’ll take them to score a narrow victory here.
Prediction: Ole Miss 69, Alabama 68
Texas A&M (13-6, 2-5) at LSU (11-7, 2-4) – 9 PM EST, ESPNU
Texas A&M was without Robert Williams, Admon Gilder, and Duane Wilson last time around against LSU, which resulted in the Tigers pulling off the stunning win in College Station.
I think the final sequence in that game went something like this:
ARE YOU KIDDING, TREMONT?? pic.twitter.com/wWB8JMbcnY
— LSU Basketball (@LSUBasketball) January 6, 2018
But both teams are in different spots right now, as the Aggies come in winners of two straight while the Tigers have lost three in a row.
However, here’s something to keep in mind when it comes to LSU’s four losses in SEC play: all have been by eight points or less, which includes a three-point loss to Kentucky and a one-point loss to Georgia.
Texas A&M is a very good offensive rebounding team due to its 6-10 trio inside, so LSU has to limit the Aggies’ second chance opportunities. There’s a good chance that 3-point shooting will also play a role, as the Aggies shot just 5 of 25 from long range in the previous meeting while the Tigers connected on 12 of 28 attempts.
Given how difficult it is to score inside on Billy Kennedy’s squad, LSU will need Waters back on track to create open opportunities on the perimeter.
I’m going to lean towards Texas A&M getting the win, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Will Wade’s score the victory.
Prediction: Texas A&M 74, LSU 72
Mississippi State (14-5, 2-4) at Kentucky (14-5, 4-3) – 9 PM EST, ESPN
It’s rare to type Kentucky and not put a number beside it, but here we are.
The Wildcats are out of the polls and trying to regain their confidence after losing two straight, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given the increased competitiveness in the SEC.
I put out a stat on Twitter yesterday that I found interesting: Through seven conference games, Kentucky doesn’t have a single double-digit victory. That’s the first time since 2008 that’s happened, with the Wildcats winning their first (and only) double-digit game eight games into league play that year.
What’s most intriguing is that we could see the same situation play out this time around. Mississippi State is another team that’s looked completely different away from home, as the Bulldogs are 0-4 and averaging just 56 points on the road. The Bulldogs have the talent, but their lack of experience is still showing in games against quality competition.
The problem I could see Mississippi State running into in a game like this is an over-reliance on jump shots. Kentucky’s overall size and length is enough to cause havoc for even the best offensive teams, and I could see the Bulldogs settling for too many outside shots instead of attacking the Wildcats in the paint and off the dribble.
It seems unfathomable that John Calipari’s team could lose two straight home games to unranked teams, so I’ll go with the Wildcats to get back on track.
Prediction: Kentucky 76, Mississippi State 62
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