No. 17 Auburn heads to Columbia on Wednesday for an intriguing game against Missouri.
Auburn is coming off an impressive second-half dismantling of Georgia, which saw the Tigers go on a shocking 31-5 run against the Bulldogs after trailing by double digits at halftime.
Meanwhile, Mizzou is coming off a poor offensive performance in a 60-49 loss at Texas A&M.
Let’s look at a few key questions entering the game.
Can Auburn get to the line on the road?
As I noted in yesterday’s column on SEC scoring and free-throw attempts, Auburn is one of the only teams in the league that actually shoots more free throws on the road than it does at home.
This may be an anomaly that will work itself out as the season progresses, but with Jared Harper’s innate ability to draw fouls and Mustapha Heron’s driving instincts, I expect that Auburn will continue to draw fouls at a high rate.
Additionally, about 19 percent of the points Missouri gives up are at the line (13th of 14 teams in league play).
Combine that with Auburn’s impressive free throw percentage (10th in the nation at 77.9 percent), and you’ve got a recipe for road success.
Will Mizzou get sped up?
According to KenPom, Auburn plays the fastest in the conference and Missouri plays the slowest.
What’s even more striking than that fact is that Auburn not only has the shortest offensive possessions, but they have the shortest defensive possessions too.
Every game, Auburn forces the opponent to put up a shot at just over 16 seconds on average. Normally, Missouri shoots it at a conference-slowest 18.9 seconds a possession.
Coaches talk all the time about “doing what you do” and not letting the opposing team dictate your style of play.
If Missouri wants to have success in front of their home crowd, it needs to stick with its formula for success this year. The Tigers need to work the ball around the floor until they get quality shots.
Missouri can’t get into a track meet with Auburn and has to make Bruce Pearl’s team adjust to a slower style of play.
What happens at the 3-point line?
Something has to give at the three-point line in this game.
Auburn shoots 37 percent in league play while Missouri has only allowed teams to shoot 28.9 percent so far.
Last time out, Auburn made 14 threes while shooting 45 percent against Georgia. Meanwhile, Missouri held Texas A&M to just three made shots from deep on less than 18 percent shooting.
Again, something has to give.
If I had to make a prediction, I’d say that Auburn continues its success at the 3-point line. Every one of the Tigers’ rotational players can make them with the exception of Horace Spencer, so they are hard to stop.
Missouri does have some solid length from their wing defenders however, and that could force Auburn to take more difficult shots than usual from long range.