It was another wild Tuesday in SEC basketball, as home teams once again flexed their muscles in going 4-1 on the night.
There are only two games on Wednesday’s schedule, as Florida and Missouri will try to keep things difficult for road teams.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 175-45
South Carolina (12-7, 3-4) at No. 20 Florida (14-5, 6-1) – 7 PM EST, SEC Network
The Gamecocks haven’t played particularly well on the road over the past month, with their lone victory during that stretch coming at Georgia.
Of course, the difference between Georgia and Florida isn’t all that hard to figure out. The Gators have been one of the SEC’s best overall offensive teams, while the Bulldogs have struggled to find their flow on that side of the court.
So, this game will certainly present some challenges for Frank Martin’s team. Florida is coming off the huge win at Kentucky last weekend, giving the Gators eight wins in their past nine outings. And while the guard play has been solid as usual, it’s the improved frontcourt that has made the difference.
Keith Stone has become a consistent double-digit scoring threat, and Kevarrius Hayes is in the top three in the SEC and top 35 nationally in blocked shots with 2.2 per game. If these two continue to offer this type of production once John Egbunu is back in the mix, Florida is going to be a tough team to handle.
And Mike White will need Stone and Hayes to play well in this game due to Chris Silva’s impact for the Gamecocks. He’s one of the most valuable players in the league to his team, as South Carolina absolutely has to have him on the court to be successful against quality teams.
In the past five games, Silva has played over 30 minutes and scored in double figures three times. The Gamecocks’ record in those games? 3-0. The two times that he played 25 minutes or less and scored below 10 points? 0-2.
But even if Silva is on the court for the majority of this game, I’m not sure he’ll have enough help around him to combat a dangerous Florida offense.
Prediction: Florida 75, South Carolina 64
No. 19 Auburn (17-2, 5-1) at Missouri (13-6, 3-3) – 9 PM EST, SEC Network (Game Preview)
This game has all the ingredients needed to be a thriller, as the crowd should be rocking at Mizzou Arena.
Obviously, there’s a clash of styles here. Auburn will try to find easy buckets in transition while speeding the game up, and Missouri will want to slow the pace and make this thing a grind. The team that can control the pace will be the team that puts itself in better position for a victory.
The home Tigers have struggled on offense as of late, which has certainly shown up on the scoreboard. Here’s the scoring for Missouri in its past four games:
- 68 points vs. Georgia (W)
- 63 points at Arkansas (L)
- 59 points vs. Tennessee (W)
- 49 points at Texas A&M (L)
The good news is that it found a way to beat Tennessee despite scoring just 59 points. The bad news is that Auburn is a more potent offensive team than any of the teams above, and scoring less than 60 points in this game probably won’t result in a win.
Kassius Robertson will need to get on track, as he’s shot just 4 of 23 from the floor and scored less than 10 points in back-to-back games. How he plays against the likes of Jared Harper (12.5 ppg) and Bryce Brown (16.4 pgg) will go a long way towards determining the outcome of this game.
On the Auburn front, the Tigers will need to avoid taking bad shots against a Mizzou defense that thrives on forcing opponents into tough, contested looks. Cuonzo Martin’s squad is 29th nationally in both two-point field goal percentage defense (44.4 percent) and 3-point field goal percentage defense (31.1 percent).
Something worth noting is that Mizzou is 4-4 in its past eight games and does not have two straight wins or losses during that stretch. So, if the trend continues as it has, Martin’s team will win this game.
I’m going to lean towards Missouri here, but not because of that statistic. I just think that the Tigers cause enough problems defensively to grind their way to another SEC home win.
Prediction: Missouri 72, Auburn 68
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