Tuesday produced another wild set of games in the world of SEC basketball, as Georgia earned a big win over Florida while Kentucky earned a comeback victory over Vanderbilt.
The Wednesday slate features three games, with home teams trying to hold off road teams in need of quality wins.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 188-50
LSU at No. 18 Tennessee – 6:30 PM EST, SEC Network
When people ask me which SEC teams I trust the most, my response usually starts with Auburn and Tennessee. The Vols have put together an excellent NCAA Tournament resume to this point, and they still have plenty of chances to improve it even more.
What’s been most impressive about Tennessee’s play this year is the fact that this is still a team with only one senior. However, that hasn’t stopped the Vols from scoring seven wins away from home, which is why it’s easy to trust Rick Barnes’ team.
As for the Tigers, they managed to stop a difficult stretch with the season sweep of Texas A&M, but then ran into a buzzsaw on the road at Auburn.
To add to some of those recent struggles, LSU has been dealing with some roster issues as of late. Galen Alexander and Mayan Kiir were suspended for the rest of the season, while Wayde Sims and Brandon Rachal – who have both played over 15 minutes a game – were suspended for this game.
This was already going to be a difficult test for Will Wade’s squad, and with a few key role players sidelined, it’s hard to pick against the Vols here.
Prediction: Tennessee 78, LSU 70
Mississippi State at South Carolina – 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network
The Gamecocks have certainly been playing better as of late despite losing two of their last three. What’s helped this South Carolina squad fight its way back into the NCAA Tournament picture is big wins over Kentucky and Florida, with Frank Martin’s team coming up just short in nearly knocking off Tennessee and Texas Tech as well.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State remains winless on the road, but the Bulldogs have kept things close in several SEC trips away from Starkville. This game doesn’t feel as intimidating as others road games have for Ben Howland’s squad (at Florida, at Kentucky, etc) due to style of play, but Mississippi State will have to match South Carolina’s physicality.
With the Gamecocks playing a tough, physical Texas Tech team last weekend, I think this may be a bit more of a grind than usual for Chris Silva and company. I can’t really see this being a high scoring game, although both teams have streaky guards that can have big nights if they get off to a good start.
I do like the matchup here for the Bulldogs, but the lack of road success this season worries me in a game that South Carolina must win to stay on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Prediction: South Carolina 68, Mississippi State 65
Missouri at Alabama – 9 PM EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)
Don’t look now, but a win here would put Alabama in a tie for second in the SEC with Kentucky and Florida. That possibility seemed unrealistic several weeks ago when the Crimson Tide had lost three of four and seemed to be spiraling.
But here we are, with Alabama coming off one of its biggest wins of the season in knocking off Oklahoma. The Tide kept its rhythm going on offense, which is something that had missing during the tough stretch in early January. There is a lot more movement and flow on the offensive end of the floor, and Alabama is proving that it has enough weapons around Collin Sexton to be a dangerous team.
As for the opponent, Missouri has sort of hit a wall after playing well in pre-conference action. The Tigers have now lost four of five, which currently has them on the outside looking in when it comes to trying to dance in March. And while Alabama has found its identity on offense, Mizzou has seemingly lost its way on that side of the court in scoring over 70 points only once in its last six games.
This game feels somewhat similar to yesterday’s game in Lexington between Kentucky and Vanderbilt. The Wildcats were coming off a huge comeback win over West Virginia, and they struggled to find that same type of energy for the majority of the game against the Commodores. Alabama is a young team as well and certainly put a lot of effort and emotion into the Oklahoma win, so you wonder if there’s a bit of a letdown in this spot.
If Cuonzo Martin’s team plays aggressive and starts to its rhythm against from beyond the arc, it’ll have a great chance to win this game.
But while there are hesitations about Alabama possibly coming out a little flat early on, I’ll take the Tide to keep rolling with another win.
Prediction: Alabama 70, Missouri 64
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