We’re only three weeks away from Selection Sunday, which means teams throughout the SEC are still fighting to lock in their bids for the NCAA Tournament.
Most project the league to land eight teams in this year’s tournament field, but we don’t know just yet who those eight teams will be. And there are plenty of crucial Saturday matchups that could play a big role in deciding which teams go dancing.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 211-58
Missouri at LSU – 2 PM EST, ESPN2
Missouri is playing as well as anyone right now, and Cuonzo Martin deserves a ton of credit for what he’s been able to dowith this team.
No one really know how Mizzou’s season would unfold after the injury to Michael Porter Jr. Some thought this team would be among the worst in the SEC, while others felt like the Tigers could still hang around the middle of the pack.
But right now, Missouri has an opportunity to move closer to securing a double bye in the SEC Tournament, and that would be a major accomplishment without one of the most talented players in nation on the court.
As for LSU, it can still put together a run to move closer to an NCAA Tournament bid, and stopping Mizzou’s winning streak would be a big step in the right direction.
This should wind up being one of the better games of the day, and I think LSU finds a way to halt the winning streak.
Prediction: LSU 75, Missouri 74
Alabama at Kentucky – 2 PM EST, CBS
It’s strange to consider that the Wildcats have lost four in a row, and it’s even stranger to think that streak could be extended to five here.
The Crimson Tide certainly have the offensive weapons to succeed at Rupp Arena, and they also have the conference’s most efficient defense. Collin Sexton should thrive in this type of environment, and if John Petty can fix his road shooting woes, I love Alabama’s chances.
But this is as must-win as it gets for the Kentucky, and losing a fifth game in a row would start to make things very interesting when it comes to this team’s NCAA Tournament hopes.
I’ll take the Wildcats, but again, there’s a lot to like about this matchup if you’re an Alabama fan.
Prediction: Kentucky 70, Alabama 68
No. 10 Auburn at South Carolina – 3:30 PM EST, SEC Network
This could be viewed as a trap game for Auburn, as South Carolina has lost six in a row and is way outside the tournament picture at this point.
However, the Gamecocks found a little momentum in nearly winning at Tennessee, so perhaps they’ll carry that over into this one.
Offensively, I just can’t see Frank Martin’s team keeping up in this game. I do think South Carolina’s defense and physicality could cause some issues, but trying to keep pace with one of the most balanced offenses in the country will be a tough task.
Prediction: Auburn 75, South Carolina 69
No. 21 Texas A&M at Arkansas – 4 PM EST, ESPN
An important game for both teams, although the Razorbacks are the ones in most need of a quality win.
Arkansas is projected in the lower seed ranges at the moment, so Mike Anderson’s squad is still far from a lock to go dancing in March. Luckily, the Hogs still have a ton of solid win opportunities available, as Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, and Missouri are the only four opponents left on the schedule.
The key to victory for Texas A&M will be all about guard play. With Duane Wilson out for the season, T.J. Starks has to continue playing well. The freshman has been an important part of this team’s success in recent weeks, and he’ll be just as important against an Arkansas squad that features an all-SEC duo in Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon.
Of course, the play of Daniel Gafford will decide this one for the Razorbacks. He had just five points and four rebounds in the previous meeting between the two teams, which resulted in a 14-point win for the Aggies.
This is a toss-up, as I’m just not sure about Arkansas’s ability to stop Texas A&M’s frontcourt. But I’m also not sure about Starks matching up with Macon and Barford.
I’ll go with the Razorbacks at home in what should be one of the most entertaining games of the day.
Prediction: Arkansas 80, Texas A&M 77
Florida at Vanderbilt – 4 PM EST, ESPN2
I’m not sure anyone knows what to expect from the Gators these days.
This team has been up and down all season long, and unless they can find more consistency down the stretch, another Elite Eight run may be difficult.
Meanwhile, the Commodores have won four in a row at home and are shooting the ball extremely well the past several weeks.
This game should feature plenty of 3-point shots, and while the Gators have the better overall resume to this point, I simply don’t trust them enough to pick them against a Vanderbilt team that’s starting to find a rhythm.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 74, Florida 71
No. 18 Tennessee at Georgia – 6 PM EST, SEC Network
The Bulldogs have only two wins in the past month, with both of those victories coming against Florida.
The most recent win against the Gators was definitely unexpected, and if Georgia once to inch closer to the bubble, it’ll need to follow it up with another significant win against a top 15 RPI team in Tennessee.
After looking invincible at times, it hasn’t been a particularly smooth week for the Vols, as they barely managed to hold off South Carolina after the demoralizing blowout loss at Alabama.
I know what Georgia was able to accomplish in Gainesville, and while I feel like this game will go down to the wire, it’s difficult to pick against Tennessee given its overall success on the road this season.
Prediction: Tennessee 73, Georgia 70
Ole Miss at Mississippi State – 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network
Given the situation surrounding Andy Kennedy’s exit, it’s just hard to feel great about the Rebels in this game.
Ole Miss hasn’t defended well enough all season long, and with Mississippi State trying to stay in the tournament discussion after a crucial loss at Vanderbilt, the Bulldogs should be at their best.
Ben Howland’s team should get back on track in a big way.
Prediction: Mississippi State 81, Ole Miss 71
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