There’s only one full week of regular season action left in the SEC, and the race for the double bye is officially on.
Auburn and Tennessee continue to lead the way, with a whopping six teams sitting behind them at 8-7 in league play.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 219-64
No. 19 Tennessee at Ole Miss – 1 PM EST, SEC Network
This game is a bit more intriguing than we thought it would be due to the Rebels’ surprising victory at Missouri earlier in the week.
Tennessee got back on track with a win of its own against Florida, with Grant Williams answering the challenge with a 23-point outing.
The Vols scored a 33-point win in Knoxville the last time these two played, mainly due to a terrific shooting night and forcing Ole Miss to commit 17 turnovers.
With the Rebels riding a lot of confidence, this will be much closer than the previous game, but Tennessee is still the safer pick at this point.
Prediction: Tennessee 77, Ole Miss 71
LSU at Georgia – 2 PM EST, ESPNU
It’s safe to say that this is one of the most important games of the day in terms of the impact it will have on each team’s NCAA Tournament hopes.
And if the first game between the two is an indication of how this will shake out, it should go down to the wire. Georgia picked up a 61-60 win in Baton Rouge a month ago, and won the rebounding battle by 11.
The Bulldogs’ size should once again play a huge role in this game, as LSU hasn’t always been the most consistent rebounding team.
I think Yante Maten and company will take advantage of second chance opportunities and pick up a crucial win.
Prediction: Georgia 71, LSU 68
South Carolina at Mississippi State 3:30 PM EST, SEC Network
Despite a 20-8 record overall, Mississippi State still has work to do to move towards the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Every game the rest of the way will be important for Ben Howland’s squad, and it starts with this matchup against a South Carolina team that has gotten back on track in recent games by earning wins over Auburn and Georgia.
I just really like the way that Mississippi State is playing right now, and this team is dangerous enough to make some serious noise at the SEC Tournament in St. Louis.
I’ll take the Bulldogs to grab another big win.
Prediction: Mississippi State 74, South Carolina 69
Texas A&M at Vanderbilt – 4 PM EST, ESPN2
Just when you think the Aggies finally have it all together, they lose three in a row and have you wondering if they’ll even make the NCAA Tournament.
The Aggies’ remaining schedule may not look all that bad on paper, but as we all know, winning in Nashville has been difficult as of late. Vanderbilt has won five straight home games, and Jeff Roberson has emerged as one of the most reliable players in the entire league.
Of course, the Commodores will need Roberson to be his usual self in this game. Texas A&M will enter with a big size advantage, and Robert Williams and Tyler Davis should be able to attack Vanderbilt’s frontcourt. Then again, the Aggies have entered a lot of games where they’ve had a size advantage, and that hasn’t mattered.
I know the Commodores have been playing well at home, but surely Texas A&M understands the magnitude of this game and what a loss could due to its NCAA chances.
I’ll go with the Aggies, but it’s not a confident choice based on their head-scratching play as of late.
Prediction: Texas A&M 75, Vanderbilt 73
Arkansas at Alabama – 6 PM EST, SEC Network
There was a lot of overreaction to Alabama’s loss at Auburn earlier in the week, but it doesn’t really affect the Crimson Tide’s tournament chances all that much.
However, it’s still important that Alabama grab another win or two to feel safe about dancing in March, and its opponent in this one feels the same way. Arkansas is right in the 8-7 jumbled mess, and scoring a win here would not only move the Hogs closer to the double bye, but it would also add another win to their tournament resume.
This is another game where Donta Hall can make a huge impact. Arkansas does have Daniel Gafford in the lane, but Hall’s experience and rebounding ability could give the Crimson Tide a big boost.
We’ve seen how dominant Alabama can be at home this season, and with Arkansas’s struggles on the road, I’ll lean towards the Tide.
Prediction: Alabama 78, Arkansas 73
Missouri at Kentucky – 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
Don’t look now, but the young Wildcats are starting to find their way.
Kentucky has played some of its best basketball of the season this past week, with the win at Arkansas possibly being the Cats’ most impressive of the year.
As for Missouri, it’s been quite the week. The Tigers started the week off with a surprising home loss to Ole Miss, but got some very good news when Michael Porter Jr. was cleared to return to all basketball activities.
We all remember what happened the last time these two played. Kentucky went just 2 of 20 from the 3-point line in a 69-60 loss at Columbia, and the Wildcats certainly need to shoot better in this game.
I’ve been concerned about Kentucky’s consistency all season long, but I think John Calipari’s team keeps things rolling with another win.
Prediction: Kentucky 71, Missouri 65
No. 12 Auburn at Florida – 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network
Speaking of teams with consistency issues, Florida is the toughest SEC team to figure out.
The Gators have lost three in a row and haven’t hit the 70-point mark in four straight games. That’s an incredible statistic considering how high-powered this offense was earlier in the season, and Florida will need to find that again quickly since Auburn has showed no signs of slowing down.
The Tigers kept things going with a blowout win over Alabama, and did so without Anfernee McLemore and Mustapha Heron. Unfortunately for Auburn, Heron is still questionable due to illness, so it makes this game a little tougher to predict.
I realize this is a huge game for Florida, but in a battle between the SEC’s most consistent team and one of the least inconsistent teams, I’ll go with the one that I trust most.
Prediction: Auburn 81, Florida 79
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