In the last regular season contest of this highly-contested SEC slate, there is a ton to play for as far as both conference and national tournament seeding is concerned.
No teams know this fact better than the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Texas A&M Aggies.
Both sides in this matchup have a lot to play for, as the Tide fight to stay in the NCAA Tournament discussion, while Texas A&M is looking to finish strong going into next week’s conference tournament in St. Louis.
These two squads have already met up once on opening weekend in league play, with the Tide scoring a 79-57 win behind strong performances from John Petty (18 points), Donta Hall (17 points), Collin Sexton (16 points), and Dazon Ingram (16 points).
The Crimson Tide have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country, which can mostly be attributed to their lack of experience (the Tide rank 348th in the country in the KenPom experience rankings), and that lack of experience has proven to be detrimental.
The Tide enter this one with a four-game losing streak and have been outscored by an average of over 13 points per game, including a 73-52 home drubbing at the hands of Florida in which Alabama shot a dismal 13 percent in the first half. This negative trend is not what the Tide were looking for, as they are now firmly on the tournament bubble.
The Aggies haven’t been much better themselves, losing three of their last five games, but they are riding a two-game winning streak over SEC bottom feeders Vanderbilt and Georgia, both on the road. Texas A&M is virtually locked into the tournament field and will be playing for a better seed in the SEC tournament.
Let’s take a look at the players to watch, the keys to victory for both teams, and a score prediction for the regular-season finale at Reed Arena.
Players to Watch
Dazon Ingram (Alabama)
Ingram, along with John Petty, has started the most games for the Tide and has been one of the bright spots as of late.
During the losing streak, Ingram has averaged 10.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game, while shooting 36 percent from behind the arc – up from his season average of 26.9 percent.
Ingram has been a calming presence for the Tide in the half-court offense, which has been well-needed, as his team is struggling to create the same sort of looks that they found earlier in the season in their motion offense.
If the Tide want to turn the proverbial tide in this contest, they’re going to need strong performances from their backcourt, and that starts with their most senior player in Ingram, who is only a redshirt sophomore.
TJ Starks (Texas A&M)
In the first matchup between the Tide and the Aggies, Starks shot a miserable 1 of 10 from the field and scored only two points off the bench.
Now with the season-ending injury to Duane Wilson, Starks has had to take a massive step forward in his role, and he has responded by averaging 16.9 points per game over the last seven games for the Aggies.
Texas A&M has been heavily reliant on Starks’ offensive output in order to stay competitive, and while the Aggies’ record is only 4-3 since Starks began his step forward, his impact on their offense is notable.
So, it will be very important for Starks to continue his impressive run of success through the regular season finale and into the conference tournament for the Aggies to have a deep run in March.
How Alabama Can Win
The Tide are going to need a strong game from their veteran leaders in Ingram and Donta Hall if they want to steal a game on the road and perhaps remove themselves from the bubble.
Ingram has been solid during the losing streak, but Hall’s production has seen a severe drop off since his big games against LSU and Kentucky. The Tide have been heavily reliant on Hall’s production on both ends of the floor, from blocking shots and rebounding defensively to grabbing offensive rebounds and finishing easy looks around the basket from guard dribble penetration.
If the Tide want to reverse their poor fortunes in the loss column, finding leadership and levelheadedness from Hall and Ingram will be a major key to victory.
How Texas A&M Can Win
The Aggies shot 2 of 21 from the 3-point line in their first matchup with the Tide, which was a major reason that they floundered in their conference opener after ascending to a top-five national ranking.
Texas A&M cannot sustain that poor level of shooting and expect to win in its home gym, similar to how Alabama shot against Florida in Tuscaloosa on Tuesday night. The Aggies will need good perimeter shooting performances from Starks, Admon Gilder, and DJ Hogg to be able to score at a high enough rate.
If the Aggies lay an egg from downtown, their chances of beating the Tide’s tough interior defense drop dramatically, so look for how they shoot the ball early as an indicator to how the game will unfold.
Prediction
The Tide and the Aggies both have a lot to play for in this game on both the conference and national seeding front.
Unfortunately for Alabama, it has really struggled in recent games that have mattered nearly as much, and with the questionable nature of Herbert Jones’ head injury, I’m not convinced of the Tide’s ability to matchup with the players that Texas A&M will be able to throw at them.
Add in the fact that Alabama has only won two road contests all season (Florida and LSU), and you can give me the Aggies all day in this matchup.
Unfortunately for Avery Johnson’s squad, it may take multiple wins in St. Louis to have a shot at going dancing.
Prediction: Texas A&M 71, Alabama 62