Two teams have already advanced in the 2018 SEC Tournament, as Georgia and South Carolina are both marching on.
Thursday’s matchups are certainly filled with intrigue, with the top four seeds awaiting the winners on Friday.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 238-68
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 Alabama – 1 PM EST, SEC Network
At least in my opinion, the formula is simple for Alabama to make the NCAA Tournament. That formula? Win and you’re in.
The Crimson Tide will still have an outside shot with a loss, but a six-game losing streak entering Selection Sunday wouldn’t be ideal.
Stopping the streak will not be easy. Texas A&M just beat Alabama last weekend, and if the Aggies pound the ball inside instead of relying on jump shots, they’re going to be in good shape.
It’s impossible to know which Alabama team will show up in this one, but given what’s at stake, I think we’ll see the good Alabama make an appearance and find enough consistency to pick up the victory.
Prediction: Alabama 69, Texas A&M 68
No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 12 Georgia – 3 PM EST, SEC Network
This game got a lot more interesting when Cuonzo Martin announced that Michael Porter Jr. would make his return to the court, and that’ll definitely give Missouri a huge boost on both sides of the court.
Of course, Porter won’t be playing the entire game or anything like that, but his presence on the floor will be enough to free up even more opportunities for fellow big men Jontay Porter and Jeremiah Tilmon, as well as All-SEC First Team guard Kassius Robertson.
Meanwhile, Georgia had one of its most dominant performances of the season in racing past Vanderbilt. Yante Maten looked like SEC Player of the Year in that game, and the Bulldogs will need a similar output to take down the Tigers.
I think this is game is going to be much closer than people think due to Georgia being able to match up size-wise with Mizzou. If Mark Fox’s team can hit some perimeter shots, this game should go down to the wire.
But picking against a Missouri team that has Porter back in the mix doesn’t seem smart.
Prediction: Missouri 74, Georgia 70
No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 10 LSU – 7 PM EST, SEC Network
Here’s another regular season finale rematch, as LSU picked up a 21-point victory over Mississippi State in Baton Rouge.
The Bulldogs have let their at-large hopes slip away after the two blowout losses to end the season, so it’ll likely take a SEC Tournament title to go dancing.
As for LSU’s tournament hopes? USA Today bracketologist Shelby Mast told me in a recent podcast episode that a run to the championship game may be enough for the Tigers to score a bid. Of course, that would mean beating Mississippi State, Tennessee, and likely either Florida or Arkansas, which would be easier said than done.
It’s hard to see LSU scoring another blowout win, but it feels like Mississippi State has lost its flow recently.
And with the Tigers already feeling confident after the win last Saturday, I’ll go with them to earn the close win.
Prediction: LSU 77, Mississippi State 74
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 South Carolina – 9 PM EST, SEC Network
South Carolina looked very good on offense in the win over Ole Miss, with the Gamecocks knocking down 12 shots from beyond the arc.
That hasn’t been the norm for Frank Martin’s squad this season, as South Carolina’s offense has been what has held it back for most of the year. And while Martin wasn’t happy with the Gamecocks giving up 84 points to the Rebels on Wednesday, this is still a team that can make things interesting with its defense.
The key for Arkansas in this game will be keeping Daniel Gafford out of foul trouble. The Razorbacks lost forward Dustin Thomas earlier in the week due to a violation of team rules, and with South Carolina’s ability to draw fouls, it’s as important as ever to keep Gafford on the floor.
Just like with Missouri/Georgia, I tend to believe that this will be much closer than people think.
I’ll go with Arkansas to sneak by, but I’m not fully confident in that pick.
Prediction: Arkansas 75, South Carolina 73
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