Five of the six 2018 SEC Tournament games thus far have been decided by five points or less, so fans have certainly got their money’s worth.
The top four seeds will take the floor on Friday, with their opponents looking to continue their solid play in St. Louis.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 240-70
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 9 Alabama – 1 PM EST, ESPN
There is obviously some buzz surrounding this one, as Collin Sexton’s buzzer-beater against Texas A&M helped Alabama stop its losing streak and potentially get back on the right side of the bubble.
Most bracket projections have the Crimson Tide in the field as of now, but there’s no doubt that a win over Auburn would make Alabama fans feel a bit more confident.
This was already going to be a fascinating matchup, but with Auburn’s added motivation due to how things unfolded with the SEC awards, it become even more interesting. The Tigers have played with plenty of motivation all year long, but they will be out to prove something here.
The toughest part in predicting this matchup is figuring out what Alabama’s mindset will be. Will the Tide be satisfied with the win over the Aggies and be less focused than yesterday? Or will they understand that winning another game is necessary to feel 100 percent sure about their NCAA Tournament chances?
I think we’ll see their mindset be somewhere in the middle, and given how focused Auburn should be, I’ll go with the Tigers to advance.
Prediction: Auburn 74, Alabama 71
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Georgia – 3 PM EST, ESPN
Everyone expected this game to feature a highly-anticipated showdown between Kentucky and Missouri, but Yante Maten and company had other plans.
Georgia has looked like the team we thought it could be during the first two days of the tournament, with Maten finally getting consistent help around him. The Bulldogs’ supporting cast has stepped up to deliver significant contributions, and if this team wants to keep rolling along, that trend will need to continue against Kentucky.
The Wildcats have been playing much better basketball over the past several weeks, although there will be one key absence on the court in this one. Jarred Vanderbilt is doubtful to play due to injury, and he’s someone that’s made a big rebounding impact.
And that’s likely the area where this game will be decided. The team that can get the most second chance opportunities will be in a great spot to win, and just like yesterday against Missouri, the Bulldogs have the size to match up with Kentucky.
However, this just feels like a good situation for Kentucky against a Georgia team that may struggle to find the same type of energy and momentum that it had on Thursday.
Prediction: Kentucky 75, Georgia 68
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Mississippi State – 7 PM EST, SEC Network
Tennessee put on a dominant performance as Mississippi State early last week, with the Vols shooting 62.2 percent from two-point range to earn the 22-point win.
My guess is that we’ll see a much closer game this time around, as Mississippi State looked very good at times in its Thursday night win over LSU. Four players scored in double figures for the Bulldogs, and Lamar Peters was excellent in scoring 24 points. Aric Holman also played extremely well and notched a double-double with 11 points and 12 rebounds.
Mississippi State is certainly athletic enough to cause Tennessee some trouble, but the Bulldogs will have to commit on the defensive end of the floor for that to happen. The Vols’ balance and unselfishness played a big part in their ability to finish as co-regular season champions, and those two traits were on display during the blowout win in Starkville.
We should see Misisssippi State come out with plenty of confidence early on, but Tennessee has been one of the most trustworthy teams in the league all year long.
For that reason, I’ll take the Vols to earn the win.
Prediction: Tennessee 69, Mississippi State 65
No. 3 Florida vs. No. 6 Arkansas – 9 PM EST, SEC Network
This should be a very entertaining matchup, as both teams featured terrific guards that can put up a lot of points.
And while we know what we’ll be getting from the guards, it’s the frontcourt that should decide the game. Arkansas’s top priority will be keeping Daniel Gafford out of foul trouble, while Florida will look to get solid production from Keith Stone and Kevarrius Hayes.
The Gators went 13 of 25 from 3-point range in the first meeting between these two and was even better from the free-throw line in making 19 of 22 attempts. If they can find that same type of success in both areas, they’ll be in great shape.
I’m still not sure that I’m back to completely trusting Florida, but this looks like a team that’s starting to find its rhythm again.
I’ll take the Gators to hit some big shots down the stretch to score the victory.
Prediction: Florida 79, Arkansas 74
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