We’ve reached the final four of the 2018 SEC Tournament, although it may not be the semifinal matchups that we all expected.
Alabama and Arkansas have scored big wins as lower seeds, and now will try to keep their momentum rolling against two of the favorites to win the tournament.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 242-72
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Alabama – 1 PM EST, ESPN
Here’s what we know heading into this game: Stopping Collin Sexton is going to be a challenge for the Wildcats.
Kentucky has the length to force Sexton into taking more contested shots, and John Calipari’s team best chance at winning will be trying to make the star freshman score all the height inside for the Wildcats.
But even the best gameplans can fail against a player of Sexton’s caliber. Just ask Texas A&M, Auburn, and the other teams that have struggled to slow down the projected NBA lottery pick.
However, it’s another important thing that we know that could be the difference in the game. Alabama will be without big man Donta Hall, who suffered a concussion in Friday’s win over Auburn.
Obviously, not having Hall is a huge deal against a Kentucky team that features so much size. That puts even more pressure on Daniel Giddens, Galen Smith, and Alex Reese to all play well, because if they don’t, the Wildcats should be able to get a lot of second chance opportunities.
Without Hall in the lineup, the Crimson Tide are going to have to shoot the ball well since Kentucky will likely force them to take a lot of jump shots. Most importantly, those made shots have to come from someone other than just Sexton. If John Petty and Dazon Ingram can build off Friday’s performance and gain more confidence on the perimeter, they’ll give Avery Johnson’s team a big boost.
I don’t think Kentucky played particularly well in the win over Georgia, but without Hall on the court, the Wildcats seem like the safer pick in this spot.
Prediction: Kentucky 65, Alabama 62
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Arkansas – 3 PM EST, ESPN
These two teams kicked off SEC play in style back in late December, as Arkansas won a 95-93 overtime thriller in Fayetteville.
Of course, that was a while ago, and there may not be a whole lot to take away from that one heading into this game.
But there is something worth noting in the previous meeting, and it may be what decides the outcome of this matchup. The Razorbacks got the bulk of their production from the starting lineup, as only five of their points came from their bench.
And that’s been a main theme for Arkansas all season. When the Hogs are playing well, they’re usually getting consistent contributions outside of their big three of Daryl Macon, Jaylen Barford, and Daniel Gafford. When they’re not playing well, they’re usually not getting much from everyone else.
Getting only five bench points probably won’t work again against the Vols. Arkansas will need a total team effort, as Tennessee sports one of the most balanced teams in the league. Grant Williams scored only 10 points on 3-of-12 shooting against Mississippi State, but Lamonte Turner and Admiral Schofield both had solid performances to lift the Vols to victory.
Since I predicted a Kentucky/Tennessee final before this thing started, I”ll go ahead and stick with it.
But with the Razorbacks riding a huge wave of momentum, I’m not as confident in that pick as I was prior to the tournament.
Prediction: Tennessee 72, Arkansas 71
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