Over the next few weeks, I’ll be analyzing the five most underrated freshmen (redshirt freshmen are eligible) in the SEC heading into the 2018-19 season.
The players need to ranked lower than 75th in the 247Sports composite rankings to qualify. By including a player on the list, the thought process is that he will outperform his recruiting ranking and/or the national expectations that have seemingly been placed upon him.
In each profile, we’ll look at the player’s skillset, examine how he fits on his team in relation to the rest of the roster, and the reasoning for his inclusion on the list.
First up is Chase Johnson, the redshirt freshman forward for the Florida Gators.
Johnson is a 6-9 power forward who was limited to only four games last season because he was in the concussion protocol. He was ranked 85th in the Class of 2017 composite rankings and is known for his athleticism, aggressive rebounding, and ability to beat opposing big men off the bounce.
He is still developing as a perimeter shooter, but his energy and face-up game make him a valuable asset.
Clearly, Johnson is a capable prospect, but he seems to be overlooked nationally. Maybe it’s Florida’s great guards or the buzz surrounding their 2019 class, but few people have Johnson pegged as a key contributor.
The most compelling reason why he could exceed expectations is the opportunity he has to carve out minutes in the frontcourt. Florida has an abundance of big men, but they’re mostly centers. Kevarrius Hayes should be the starter, Dontay Bassett and Gorjok Gak shared the backup center role last season, and Isaiah Stokes redshirted due to injury. Even starting power forward Keith Stone will see time at center in smaller and more dynamic offensive lineups.
These four big men (Hayes, Gak, Bassett, Stokes) seem locked into the center position as they are mostly bound to the paint offensively and lack the necessary perimeter skill you want in a modern day power forward. Stokes is the exception as he is extremely skilled offensively and can space the floor, but at 6-8 and 270 pounds, will he be mobile enough to defend opposing four men?
Florida could really use a versatile player to slot in at power forward when Stone slides to center or is out of the game. This is where Johnson factors into the mix.
He is a good enough prospect to suggest that he can make an impact during his second year in the program, and most importantly, his skill set fits perfectly to address what Florida needs. His ability to knock down perimeter shots may be the ultimate determining factor as to whether he can emerge as a key piece.
The Gators often used sharpshooter Egor Koulechov in this role last season, but they did not replace him with another experienced outside threat.
According to KenPom, Koulechov saw most of his minutes at power forward and was the most frequently used one over Florida’s last five games. The lineup with Koulechov and Stone at the four and five respectively was Florida’s second most used lineup during this stretch.
With Koulechov’s graduation, Johnson a golden opportunity to step forward.
This crucial role will not simply be handed to Chase Johnson as he will have steep competition from incoming freshman Keyontae Johnson. At 6-5, Keyontae does not have the size that Chase has, but he is an outstanding athlete and has the strength to play small-ball four. He is also a highly ranked recruit and is rated as the 69th best player in the Class of 2018 according to 247Sports.
Chase Johnson needs to make the most of this opportunity while it is still available. Florida has landed some ultra-talented pieces for next season, and if Johnson does not produce, he could find himself on the outside looking in for the foreseeable future.
Scottie Lewis, an extremely talented 5-star wing, and 4-star big man Omar Payne will likely step into immediate roles next season, which could lead to decreased minutes for Johnson whether it be directly or indirectly.
Even though he has present and future competition for a substantial spot in the rotation, I expect the redshirt freshman to play a pivotal role. It wouldn’t be fair to expect Johnson to completely fill Koulechov’s shoes since the former will not see any time on the wing, but I think he emerges as the preferable option at power forward when Stone moves to center or is on the bench.
Mike White used this lineup frequently last season and there is no clear reason as to why he wouldn’t do so this season. Playing Stone at the five gives Florida an offensive advantage, and Johnson will be the main beneficiary.
My early prediction is that the freshman plays 15-18 minutes per game and averages around six or seven points per game on a top 25 caliber team.