Over the next few weeks, I’ll be analyzing the five most underrated freshmen (redshirt freshmen are eligible) in the SEC heading into the 2018-19 season.
The players need to ranked lower than 75th in the 247Sports composite rankings to qualify. By including a player on the list, the thought process is that he will outperform his recruiting ranking and/or the national expectations that have seemingly been placed upon him.
In each profile, we’ll look at the player’s skillset, examine how he fits on his team in relation to the rest of the roster, and the reasoning for his inclusion on the list.
Next up on the list is Missouri freshman Torrence Watson. The 6’5’’ wing is a prolific scorer who can create offense at all three levels. Watson comes in at 113th in the 247 composite rankings, but he will need to play major minutes and produce immediately.
He will be thrust into such a big role due to Missouri losing almost all of its perimeter depth from last season. Starting shooting guard Kassius Robertson and starting small forward Jordan Barnett have both graduated, and they were the only Missouri players to average double figures.
Robertson thrived as a graduate transfer and seamlessly transitioned from the MAAC to the SEC. He averaged 16.3 points per game and shot 42 percent from three in his lone season with the Tigers. As for Barnett, he took a major step forward in his senior season by averaging 13.7 points per game, 5.7 rebounds per game, and by shooting 41 percent from beyond the arc.
Missouri also lost Cullen Van Leer to a career-ending injury which means the Tigers return 0 percent of their minutes from both the SG and SF positions. Van Leer only averaged 2.4 points in 14 minutes per game, but his experience would have been invaluable for this youthful perimeter group.
The only perimeter player who has returned from last year is starting point guard Jordan Giest, which means there is a golden opportunity for Watson to cement himself as a full-time starter on the wing.
Unlike most players ranked in the 100-150 range, Watson will get an opportunity to play to his strengths as a freshman on a nationally relevant team.
Most of the players ranked in this range need time to develop and are only minor contributors in their first few seasons. It isn’t often that a player in this range earns starting role on a regular basis, and it is even rarer for these players to earn a starting role on a potential NCAA Tournament team.
We can easily find examples of guys like Brad Davison (Wisconsin) and Trent Frazier (Illinois) who impressed as sub-100 ranked freshmen, but they did not play for tournament-caliber teams.
The list of guys ranked between 100-150 who started for NCAA Tournament teams in the last two recruiting classes is minuscule. Out of these 100 players, only seven fit this description:
- Class of 2017: Marek Dolezaj, Brady Manek, Isaiah Livers, O’Shae Brissett
- Class of 2016: Alpha Diallo, Carsen Edwards, De’Anthony Melton
This is a fantastic group of players to be a part of. Edwards is one of the best players in college basketball, Melton plays for the Phoenix Suns, Brissett is an NBA prospect, Diallo is one of the best players in the Big East, Dolezaj played exceptionally well in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, Manek averaged double figures as a freshman, and Livers was a starter on Michigan’s runner-up team.
These players were surrounded by veterans which undoubtedly helped their progression, and this could be an indication of what is to come for Watson.
The lower you get in the rankings, the more uncommon this type of opportunity becomes. There will always be anomalies like Zhaire Smith who went from a three-star prospect to a substantial contributor (and NBA first round pick), but it is not very likely.
This is why Watson looks like the clear favorite to earn a starting nod over fellow freshmen Xavier Pinson, Javon Pickett, and Christian Guess.
Pinson seems like the clear back-up point guard, but his shooting ability could get him additional playing time alongside Giest in the backcourt. Pickett is a tough player and a strong rebounder for a guard, and Guess was a last minute addition to the team. However, if we use the recruiting rankings as a barometer for where these players are in their development – Pinson is rated 248, Pickett is 297, and Guess is unrated – it’s unknown as to whether they will play substantial roles as freshmen.
JUCO transfer KJ Santos looks like the starting SF, but he is currently sidelined with a foot fracture. This hurts Missouri’s depth even more and could mean another freshman gets thrown into the fire.
It will be interesting to see how frequently Cuonzo Martin utilizes a three big man lineup to get his three best players on the court. Jontay Porter, Kevin Puryear, and Jeremiah Tilmon rotated between power forward and center last season, but with the lack of wing depth and talent, it would not be surprising to see all three play together for stretches.
This will not solve Missouri’s turnover issues (313th in KenPom), but it could be a necessity based on the performance of the freshmen.
Watson is clearly a very talented player who will have a great career with the Tigers, but the main reason I consider him nationally underrated is the massive and rare opportunity he has in front of him.
As mentioned above, these types of recruits typically do not start on NCAA Tournament teams, but the ones who earn that role have had great success. Opportunity might be the most important factor when trying to identify these surprise freshmen.
Missouri is not a lock to return to the Big Dance, but with the Porter/Puryear/Tilmon frontcourt the Tigers will certainly be in the mix.
If they can get competent guard play, and perimeter scoring/floor spacing from Watson, they will be in a strong position moving forward.
My early predictions for Watson? He averages approximately 10 to 11 points per game and plays close to 30 minutes per game in his debut season.