And we’re back.
The 2018-19 college basketball season officially gets underway on Tuesday night, and there are plenty of intriguing matchups on the schedule for teams around the SEC.
So, with games about to be played, you know what that means: the return of my daily SEC basketball predictions here on Southeast Hoops.
We’ve had a lot of fun with this over the past few years, and my hope is that you’ll find even more value and entertainment in them this season.
For the newcomers to the party, the process really is quite simple. Each day there are SEC basketball games on the schedule, I do a predictions post with picks for every single game.
These are straight-up picks with no spread or over/under picks involved. I do the score predictions for my own amusement, so don’t take them as hardcore analytic projections.
However, since there has been some demand to include picks against the spread and over/under choices in this year’s selections, I’ve added a special Vegas bonus pick at the bottom to add a little more flavor.
Last season’s prediction record: 244-72. This season’s prediction record: 320-0 (or at least that’s the goal).
And as a yearly reminder, me picking against your team does not, in fact, mean that I hate your team.
Let’s dive into the picks for opening night.
Season Predictions Record: 0-0
Lenoir-Rhyne at No. 6 Tennessee – 7 PM EST, SECN (Game Preview)
The defending SEC co-champions return their top six scorers, so it’s easy to understand why the school’s first-ever Final Four appearance could be within reach.
My Lenoir-Rhyne basketball sources are limited, but here’s what I do know: it’s picked to finish fifth in the South Atlantic Conference and beat The Citadel by 14 points in exhibition action a season ago.
Here’s something else that I know: Tennessee is not The Citadel.
Prediction: Tennessee 77, Lenoir-Rhyne 52
USC Upstate at South Carolina – 7 PM EST, SECN+ (Game Preview)
Speaking of exhibition action, the Gamecocks suffered a head-scratching loss to Augusta on Oct. 26, which brought out plenty of critics for a team that was picked 11th in the SEC in the preseason.
However, I rarely put a ton of stock into exhibition results and feel like Frank Martin has his team’s full attention after that one.
If South Carolina can greatly improve its shooting percentages (which you can read all about in the game preview), it can move up the SEC ladder and have a shot at getting back to the NCAA Tournament.
Chris Silva is one of the most impactful players in the conference when he’s on the floor, but he’s going to need more help around him this season on both sides of the court.
The Gamecocks should have enough to beat a USC Upstate squad that won just seven games last season, and an efficient offensive performance against one fo the worst defensive teams in the country last season would help quiet some of the skeptics.
Prediction: South Carolina 73, USC Upstate 58
Southern at Alabama – 8 PM EST, SECN+ (Game Preview)
Avery Johnson leads the Crimson Tide into a matchup with his alma mater, and it’s one that should allow Alabama to experiment with some rotations.
The Tide bring a lot of production back after advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last season, but things will certainly look a little different with Collin Sexton now in the NBA.
This type of game should allow potential breakout players like Alex Reese and Kira Lewis to showcase their skills.
Prediction: Alabama 82, Southern 56
Central Arkansas at Missouri – 8 PM EST, SECN+ (Game Preview)
There are a lot of unknowns with this Missouri squad after Jontay Porter’s season-ending injury, so there could be some initial struggles while the Tigers work on a few new wrinkles.
Everything should run through Kevin Puryear and Jeremiah Tilmon, as both are impactful players that will have their roles expanded even further due to Porter being sidelined.
Central Arkansas was picked eighth in the Southland preseason poll, so the Tigers should pick up the win.
Prediction: Missouri 73, Central Arkansas 62
SE Louisiana at No. 23 LSU – 8:30 PM EST, SECN+ (Game Preview)
Tremont Waters is always must-see TV, and the sophomore point guard has plenty of talented playmakers around him thanks to the addition of the nation’s No. 4 recruiting class.
Naz Reid stands out most among the young group, as the 6-9 power forward has the size and strength to make huge contributions on both sides of the floor.
LSU was really efficient on offense last season with Waters running the show, and Will Wade’s squad should only improve in that area with the new talent on the roster.
If the Tigers can bring it on defense on a consistent basis, this could be a Final Four sleeper.
Prediction: LSU 88, SE Louisiana 68
Florida at No. 17 Florida State – 9 PM EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)
Florida returns a strong backcourt and an underrated frontcourt, but questions still linger when it comes to how the Gators replace the intangibles that Chris Chiozza brought to the table.
The good news for Mike White is that he has a versatile freshman group that should get an opportunity so shine right away.
As for the Seminoles, they’ll be without leading scorer Phil Cofer in this one, which raises some questions there as well.
Terance Mann was the difference in this game last year with 25 points on 11-of-17 shooting, and he has a great chance to make a similar impact with Cofer out of action.
This feels like the toughest game to predict due to unknowns on both sides, and in those situations, I typically pick the home team by default.
The Gators are probably being undervalued heading into the season, but this just feels like a better setup for Leonard Hamilton’s team.
Prediction: Florida State 71, Florida 70
South Alabama at No. 11 Auburn – 9 PM EST, SECN (Game Preview)
The Tigers are back to defend their crown, and this version of Bruce Pearl’s squad should pack quite a punch.
Despite Austin Wiley and Samir Doughty dealing with injuries (the latter is expected to play), the return of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown in the backcourt gives Auburn one of the most underrated guard duos in the nation.
Of course, Anfernee McLemore is back from injury after being one of the better defenders in the country last year, and his expanded offensive game should create problems for the opposition.
Richie Riley will likely want the Jaguars to play fast, but it may take some time to get everyone on the same page after they struggled to score and take care of the ball last season.
Harper and Brown should thrive in transition in helping the Tigers start off the new season with a victory.
Prediction: Auburn 85, South Alabama 71
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Duke – 9:30 PM EST, ESPN (Game Preview)
This game is kind of a big deal, and it’s easy to understand why.
I went into more detail in the game preview, but I’ll go ahead and tell you why I believe Kentucky is the pick here.
For once, the Wildcats are going to stare across the court at a team that can’t match their experience. We’re used to John Calipari featuring a roster filled with mostly talented freshmen, but this particular Kentucky squad has that and a veteran double-double guy, as well as a sophomore group that played valuable minutes a year ago.
I love Duke’s potential but feel like Kentucky is the better team as of right now.
Prediction: Kentucky 80, Duke 75
Winthrop at Vanderbilt – 9:30 PM EST, SECN+ (Game Preview)
It’s a new era for Vanderbilt basketball as Bryce Drew welcomes in a trio of freshmen that will likely make a huge impact from the opening tip.
Darius Garland, Simi Shittu, and Aaron Nesmith all add different dynamics to the Commodores, and the addition of transfers Matt Ryan and Yanni Wetzell give Drew and his staff a lot of flexibility in how they approach things offensively.
Winthrop will get up and down the floor on offense, and Pat Kelsey has a good group of returners that’ll likely embrace the underdog role.
It’s hard to know what to expect from the new-look Commodores, but they should pull away down the stretch in holding off the feisty Eagles.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 74, Winthrop 66
Vegas Bonus Pick: Kentucky -1.5
If we’re going to add this section to the column this season, we might as well start with the biggest game.
Accurately predicting point totals and spreads for the first game of the season is a challenging task, but I’ll take the Wildcats to take care of business in Indianapolis.
For more SEC basketball coverage, follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell.