Arkansas will look to put its tough loss to Texas in the rearview mirror as it hosts UC Davis on Monday night.
The Razorbacks lost a 73-71 overtime thriller last week, with the Longhorns hitting a few big shots to earn the win.
As for UC Davis, it has dropped two home games to WCC competition – a 76-42 loss to San Francisco and a 76-57 loss to San Diego.
Let’s run through what to watch for in this matchup.
Game Details
- UC Davis (0-2) at Arkansas (0-1)
- Location: Bud Walton Arena – Fayetteville, AR
- Game Date: Nov. 12
- Game Time: 8 p.m. EST
- Watch: SEC Network+
Players to Watch
Daniel Gafford (Arkansas)
The likely 2019 NBA lottery pick started the new season in an impactful way by posting a double-double against Texas.
Gafford posted 20 points and 12 rebounds to go along with two blocks. His usage rate was 38 percent, and it’s no surprise that the Hogs are trying to run everything through their dominant center.
However, the sophomore did commit six turnovers in the game, and that’s something that’ll need to improve considering that Gafford is going to see a massive amount of double teams this season when he catches the ball near the paint.
Isaiah Joe (Arkansas)
It may too early to declare this after just one college game, but I feel confident in saying that the 6-5 freshman is a future star.
Joe scored 17 points and went 5 of 8 from 3-point range in the opener, and he might wind up being one of the better shooters in the SEC this year.
What also stood out was his competitiveness throughout the game. He wasn’t scared to take big shots in key moments, and he’s a great young backcourt building block for Mike Anderson and company.
It’s clear that the staff has full confidence in him early on, as he played 34 minutes in his debut.
TJ Shorts (UC Davis)
The 5-9 senior had a game to forget in the opener, going just 1 of 8 from the field and committing six turnovers.
However, the reigning Big West player of the year played better against San Diego in scoring 17 points in 31 minutes. He’s the team’s top returning scorer (14.8 pgg) and played more minutes than anyone else on the Aggies’ roster last season.
This is the type of game where head coach Jim Les needs Shorts to use his experience and speed (63 steals in ’17-18) to create havoc on Arkansas’s young guards.
Key Stats
There are several important stats that the Razorbacks can exploit in this particular matchup.
For starters, despite being the 28th most experienced team in the country, UC Davis is one of the smallest size-wise and ranks 294th in KenPom’s average height category. San Francisco outrebounded the Aggies by 15, and San Diego outrebounded them by seven.
Another potential problem for the visitors could be scoring points – more specifically, scoring points from the perimeter. UC Davis is just 6 of 42 from beyond the arc through two games (14.3 percent), so that’s a concern if the Hogs grab an early lead and the Aggies find themselves needing to catch up quickly.
Tempo will also be worth watching in this one, as Arkansas will look to push the pace while UC Davis’ best chance at winning will be slowing the game down.
Game Outlook
- Spread: Arkansas -15
- Over/Under: 144
- KenPom Projection: Arkansas, 92 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: Arkansas, 86.1 percent chance to win
If you just look at the early numbers, it paints the picture that Arkansas should win this game convincingly.
But it may not be as simple as the numbers suggest, as you never know how a young team will bounce back after losing such a close game on the national stage.
The Razorbacks are certainly the more talented team, and the Aggies have not played to their expectations in the first two games of the season.
Les’ group should be in contention for a Big West title this season, but they’ve got a lot of things to figure out before they get there.
I feel like Gafford and company can find a plethora of second-chance opportunities in this game, and the only concern I have about Anderson’s team is the possible letdown after feeling like they should’ve beaten Texas.
Even against a UC Davis team mostly made up of upperclassmen, it’s impossible to pick against Arkansas in this spot based on what we’ve seen from the Aggies thus far.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 19-4
Game Prediction: Arkansas 81, UC Davis 65
For more SEC basketball coverage, follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell.