Butler and Ole Miss will square off in an interesting early season matchup on Friday night.
Neither team has been tested thus far, so this game should serve as a valuable litmus test for both squads.
Since the game is at Butler, Ole Miss will have an opportunity to grab a resume-building win as the Bulldogs will almost assuredly finish in the top 75.
Let’s run through what to watch for in this game.
Game Details
- Ole Miss (1-0) at Butler (2-0)
- Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse- Indianapolis, Indiana
- Game Date: Nov. 16
- Game Time: 8 p.m. EST
- Watch: FS2
Players to Watch
Terence Davis (Ole Miss)
Davis is one of the most overlooked players in the country, partly because it has been a few seasons since Ole Miss was NCAA Tournament-caliber.
He is an athletic 6’4’’ guard who can also knock down perimeter jumpers. After averaging just 1.9 points per game as a freshman, Davis exploded as a sophomore, averaging 14.9 per contest.
Expect a similar output from Davis in his senior season in Oxford.
Kamar Baldwin (Butler)
Baldwin is a dynamic two-way guard who is Butler’s best player on both sides of the floor.
He is a pesky defender with great positional length and can also score at all three levels. He has stepped into a bigger role because Kelan Martin has graduated, and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to being the featured player.
So far, so good, as Baldwin is averaging 23.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists per game. However, he will need to clean up his 5.5 turnovers per game.
Joey Brunk (Butler)
Brunk has been one of the biggest surprises in the early season.
After playing sparingly last season, the former top 100 recruit has thrived in a bigger role as a redshirt sophomore. He is averaging 15.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game while shooting 91 percent from the field.
These numbers are unsustainable, but the 6’11’’ center has proven to be a capable replacement for Tyler Wideman in the frontcourt.
Brunk is an athletic and active big man who excels around the basket with his soft touch.
Key Stats
Butler is an excellent offensive team that has numerous creators and offensive weapons.
In the first two games, the Bulldogs have averaged 18 assists to only 12 turnovers. This can be attributed to their usual three-guard look with Baldwin, Aaron Thompson, and Paul Jorgenson.
Playing with three ball handlers helps neutralize pressure defense and enhances Butler’s offense, but it can also be a liability on the defensive end.
Paul Jorgenson is essentially the small forward at 6’2’’ so bigger wings like Davis and KJ Buffen should be able to use their size to their advantage. On the defensive end, their length could disrupt the smaller Butler guards.
If the Bulldogs can continue to get stellar play from Brunk, they will be much better than the preseason projections indicate. The frontcourt looked like a major weakness, but if Brunk and wings like Sean McDermott and Henry Baddley can hold down those positions, Butler will be in great shape.
Even though they are only shooting 31 percent from three through two games, the Rebels will need to limit Butler’s 3-point attempts as this is an excellent shooting team.
McDermott has been relatively quiet thus far (8.0 ppg), but he has the potential to be a dangerous offensive player, especially from beyond the arc.
Game Outlook
- Spread: Butler -9.5
- Over/Under: 150
- KenPom Projection: Butler, 81 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: Butler, 89.9 percent chance to win
Ole Miss will need to make life difficult for Kamar Baldwin.
Baldwin has turned the ball over at a rapid pace this season because he is now the number one option with Kelan Martin’s graduation. Hopefully, rotating athletic guards like Shuler, Tyree, and Davis on Baldwin will slow him down.
The Rebels need big games from their veterans. Terence Davis is one of the most underrated players in the country, and Breein Tyree and Devonte Shuler are also overlooked as starting caliber guards.
The frontcourt veterans, Bruce Stevens and Dominik Olejniczak will have to make their mark as well. Stevens only scored six points in their opener, but he is capable of averaging double figures with his versatile inside-out game.
Olejniczak did not live up to the expectations placed on him last season, and if Ole Miss wants to climb the SEC standings, he needs to be an impact player at the center position.
The Ole Miss program is in great shape for the future under Kermit Davis, but could struggle in a loaded SEC this season.
Butler should have the edge playing at home and will likely contend for another NCAA Tournament bid.
Game Prediction: Butler 81 Ole Miss 73
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