No. 9 Auburn will try to stay unbeaten when it opens Maui Invitational play against Xavier on Monday afternoon.
The Tigers are off to a 3-0 start with dominant wins over South Alabama, Washington, and Mississippi College.
Meanwhile, Travis Steele has the Musketeers sitting at 2-1 in his first season on the job, with wins over IUPUI and Evansville while losing their most recent outing to Wisconsin.
Let’s run through what to watch for in this intriguing matchup.
Game Details
- No. 9 Auburn (3-0) vs. Xavier (2-1)
- Location: Lahaina Civic Center – Lahaina, HI (Maui Invitational)
- Game Date: Nov. 19
- Game Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
- Watch: ESPN2
Players to Watch
Jared Harper (Auburn)
It’s no shocker to see the 5-11 junior leading the way as the most impactful player on the floor for the Tigers in averaging 15.0 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.0 rebounds in 28.0 minutes per contest.
Harper has improved his shooting percentages across the board at this point, making 45.5 percent of his shots from the field and 52.4 percent of his shots from 3-point range.
Austin Wiley (Auburn)
Wiley has been eased into action since returning for the top 25 showdown against Washington, and he figures to continue to see an increase in minutes each game.
The 6-11 junior had 18 points and seven rebounds while shooting 8 of 10 from the free-throw line in the easy win over Mississippi College.
There’s no doubt that Wiley can be one of the most dominant frontcourt players in college basketball, and his overall strength and ability to run the floor will make him an invaluable asset in Bruce Pearl’s system this season.
Naji Marshall (Xavier)
While Xavier has six players averaging double figures in scoring, it’s Marshall that currently leads the way with 14.3 points per game after an excellent performance in the loss to Wisconsin.
He contributed 24 points on 10-of-15 shooting while grabbing 13 rebounds in the contest, and his continued improvement will give the Musketeers a huge boost once Big East play arrives in late December.
Key Stats
Obviously, one of the top priorities for Xavier will be keeping Auburn’s impressive 3-point shooting in check.
The Tigers already have 38 made 3-pointers through three games, and that numbers is even more impressive when you consider that they only made eight in the easy win over Mississippi College.
Travis Steele’s squad has allowed an average of 46.7 percent from long range to its opponents thus far, so defending the perimeter will be crucial to success.
Something else that Pearl’s team has excelled in is attacking the glass on offense, with Auburn ranking second nationally with a 48.7 percent offensive rebounding rate.
Should it be a close game down the stretch, it’s worth noting the Xavier is shooting just 56.1 percent from the charity stripe (337th nationally).
Game Outlook
- Spread: Auburn -10
- Over/Under: 157
- KenPom Projection: Auburn, 79 percent chance to win
- ESPN BPI Projection: Auburn, 78.6 percent chance to win
It would be a mistake for Auburn to look ahead to a potential matchup with Duke in the second round, as we’ve learned over the years that underestimating Xavier is never a wise move.
But it’s hard to ignore how well the Tigers are playing right now.
This team has the same edge to it as it had last season, and Pearl once again has numerous playmakers to choose from on both sides of the court.
Neutral court games can produce some interesting results, and this may not be a situation where Auburn comes out and hits 15-plus 3-pointers in cruising to victory.
However, the Tigers can score in a variety of ways due to their size and ability to run the floor, so they will be able to attack Xavier both in the half court and in transition.
I could see this being a spot where Auburn doesn’t play its best basketball for the entire 40 minutes, but still finds enough scoring and second-chance looks to keep the Muskeeteers from spoiling the fun.
I’ll take Pearl’s squad to pick up the victory.
Season Prediction Record (straight up): 36-8
Game Prediction: Auburn 79, Xavier 68
For more SEC basketball coverage, follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell.