SEC Basketball Predictions: UK/UNC Greensboro, Vandy/NC State, and more

By
Blake Lovell
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(Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)

The SEC went 2-0 on Friday as both South Carolina and No. 25 Mississippi State picked up victories.

And now with the calendar flipping over to December, it’s important that teams make the most of their non-conference schedule before league play arrives in early January.

There are five games on today’s slate, with a few matches likely being more competitive than expected.

Let’s get to the predictions.

Season Prediction’s Record (straight up): 70-16

UNC Greensboro (7-1) at No. 10 Kentucky (6-1) – 1 p.m. EST, ESPN2

The Wildcats have won six in a row and seem to be finding a bit more consistency on the defensive side of the court.

That’s good news because their opponent in this one can light up the scoreboard in a hurry.

UNC Greensboro’s only loss on the season is a 97-91 defeat at LSU, and Wes Miller’s squad is 18th nationally in averaging 87.6 points per game.

The Spartans are third nationally in 2-point field-goal percentage (61.8 percent) and eighth in effective field-goal percentage (59.1 percent), so Kentucky better have a focused effort on defense.

Both teams have struggled to defend the perimeter, as Kentucky ranks 329th in 3-point defense (40.3 percent) while UNC Greensboro is 336th in that category (41.1 percent).

Where Kentucky should be able to thrive is on the offensive glass, with John Calipari’s team still the nation’s best in offensive rebounding percentage (45.9 percent).

This will likely be the second-best opponent that the Wildcats have faced thus far this season, and they better approach this game with that in mind.

I’ll go with Kentucky due to the improved play of PJ Washington, but the defensive issues will likely make this a close game.

Prediction: Kentucky 83, UNC Greensboro 75

UL Monroe (3-3) at Ole Miss (4-2) – 2 p.m. EST, SEC Network+

Ole Miss earned an impressive win over San Diego earlier in the week, so the confidence should be running high entering this matchup.

UL Monroe has faced a few challenging road games thus far, with Keith Richard’s group losing 65-55 at Texas and 80-59 at Michigan State.

However, while the Warhawks are shooting 41.3 percent from beyond the arc (21st nationally), they are struggling from 2-point range in making just 39.8 percent of their attempts (342nd nationally).

UL Monroe also defends the perimeter well (13th nationally in 3-point field defense at 26.3 percent) and is one of the most experienced teams in the country (21st nationally in experience).

But I just love the toughness we’ve seen from the Rebels this season, and they should carry over the momentum from the San Diego victory while grabbing another in this spot.

Prediction: Ole Miss 77, UL Monroe 68

Vanderbilt (5-1) vs. NC State (6-1) – 5 p.m. EST, ESPN2 (Hoophall Miami Invitational in Miami, FL)

The Commodores fared fine without Darius Garland in the 120-85 win over Savannah State on Tuesday, but something tells me that NC State may pose a little more of a challenge.

Kevin Keatts has the Wolfpack playing very well early on, and they were a few plays away from staying undefeated before losing 79-75 at Wisconsin.

There’s something that NC State does particularly well that may prove to be the difference in this game, and that’s forcing turnovers on a consistent basis.

The Wolfpack rank 25th nationally in forced turnovers with 17.7 per game, and with Vanderbilt missing its true point guard in Garland, that’ll put more pressure on Saben Lee to keep the Commodores on the right side of the turnover battle.

This feels like a game that could see Simisola Shittu use his size and skill set to take over, and he’ll likely need to if Bryce Drew’s squad wants to come away victorious.

Vanderbilt is still talented enough to win a lot of games this season even with Garland sidelined, but this feels like a difficult matchup due to NC State’s style of play.

I’ll lean towards the Wolfpack here.

Prediction: NC State 78, Vanderbilt 74

Grambling (3-3) at LSU (5-2) – 5 p.m. EST, SEC Network+

Despite losing two games in a row, I’m still completely sold on LSU as one of the best teams in the SEC.

Will Wade’s team just couldn’t make enough plays down the stretch to score the win against Florida State, and that overtime loss seemingly led to a deflated effort in the 90-77 defeat to Oklahoma State.

But this is a great chance for the home Tigers to bounce back, as they hold a decided advantage over Grambling in a lot of statistical categories.

One area that Grambling has excelled in is 3-point shooting (28th nationally at 40.7 percent), and that’s the best shot at pulling the upset since LSU has allowed opponents to shoot 38.3 percent from long range (304th nationally).

Even with Grambling sporting good size and experience, I can’t see Donte Jackson’s squad having enough defense to slow down Tremont Waters and company.

Prediction: LSU 92, Grambling 70

Florida International (7-1) at Arkansas (4-1) – 8 p.m. EST, SEC Network+

First-year head coach Jeremy Ballard has the Panthers off to a terrific start, even if the competition hasn’t been particularly strong from top to bottom with three non-Division I victories.

But it won’t be easy for Arkansas to prepare for this type of opponent, especially when you consider that Florida International ranks second nationally in adjusted tempo and third in average offensive possession length (13.4 seconds).

Luckily for the Hogs, they should be able to use their size in the lane to slow the Panthers’ offensive attack. Florida International shoots 59.4 percent from inside the perimeter (14th nationally), but it’ll likely struggle to hit that percentage in this one thanks to Daniel Gafford’s shot-blocking ability.

When you combine that with the fact that the Panthers shoot just 29.1 percent from long range (301st nationally) and 63.5 percent from the charity stripe (302nd nationally), this may prove to be a bit of a challenge for the visitors.

I’ll take the Razorbacks to pick up the victory.

Prediction: Arkansas 94, Florida International 79

For more SEC basketball coverage, follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell.