SEC Basketball Mailbag: Alabama/Auburn outlook, tournament sleepers and more

This week’s SEC basketball mailbag features great questions on the future of Alabama and Auburn basketball, Missouri’s potential coaching search and more.

Let’s dive right in.

Andrew Terry also asked about coach of the year, so I’ll combine the two questions here.

I will have an in-depth postseason awards post coming on Sunday or Monday. For now, I’ll give you a few quick hitter thoughts on the two main awards (I’ll have a lot more categories in my awards).

SEC Coach of the Year

It’s Mike White at Florida. We all thought the Gators would be good, but he’s taken them a bit further than expected. When you consider that he had to follow in the shoes of Billy Donovan, it’s pretty incredible what he’s been able to do there. Losing John Egbunu will limit this team’s ceiling in March, but it won’t overshadow the job he’s done this season.

SEC Player of the Year

Sindarius Thornwell gets my vote. South Carolina’s late season struggles may swing votes in a different direction, but I think he’s done enough this season to earn the honor. His numbers speak for themselves:

  • 2nd in SEC in points per game (21.0 PPG)
  • 6th in SEC in rebounds per game (7.3 RPG)
  • 10th in SEC in field goal percentage (44.7%)
  • 1st in SEC in steals (2.2 SPG)
  • 9th in SEC in FT percentage (85.3%)
  • 3rd in SEC in minutes played (33.8 MPG)

Malik Monk is a prolific scorer and JJ Frazier has definitely made a case for himself in coming on strong down the stretch. I’d still take Thornwell.

https://twitter.com/stuttsb/status/837149942787489794

Adding a 6-foot-10 player that was recruited by some of the top programs in the country (Kansas, Arizona, Indiana, etc.) is always a good thing. He didn’t get a ton of minutes at Ohio State, but he should definitely find himself in the rotation next season.

The even better news? Avery Johnson also has one of the best recruiting classes in the nation to go along with Giddens.

His size will add another element to the frontcourt, and he’ll be in good company. Donta Hall will have another year of experience, and freshman Alex Reese should also fight for minutes.

Alabama’s roster next season will be impressive.  How quickly the new guys mesh with the returning guys will go a long way towards determining how good this team can be.

However, I don’t think there’s any doubt that this can be a Top 25 team given the assumed strengths on both ends of the floor.

Everyone that has read my work knows that I was higher on Auburn this season than most people. I thought the talent was so good there that things would come together a little quicker than expected.

Of course, that didn’t happen. But, like with Alabama, next year should be the jump that many have waited for.

Bruce Pearl’s top four scorers this season are freshmen: Mustapha Heron (15.0 PPG), Jared Harper (11.8 PPG), Danjel Purifoy (11.4 PPG), and Austin Wiley (8.8 PPG). They’ll all be even better next season.

The Tigers also add two outstanding recruits in 6-foot-7 forward Chuma Okeke and point guard Davion Mitchell. Depth will not be a concern at all for Pearl next season given the options he’ll have at his disposal.

But there’s still one element of the game that will decide how good Auburn can be: defense. This team’s defense has been non-existent at times this season.

Auburn is 320th in the nation in scoring defense right now (79.4 PPG), so the Tigers will need to take a big step forward in that area to reach their full potential in the 2017-18 season.

It’s hard to pinpoint specific names until the coaching carousel begins, but the Missouri job will draw a lot of interest.

It’s easy to forget the history of this program due to losing 20+ games the past three seasons. However, this program has plenty of tradition and plenty of resources. I’d expect Missouri to go after established coaches in power conferences (who may or may not listen), and then turn to rising coaches at mid-major programs.

The biggest thing about this potential coaching search is that the school has to understand how competitive things are getting in SEC basketball. Look at the current roster of coaches outside of the ones that seem to be on their way out this season:

  • John Calipari
  • Frank Martin
  • Rick Barnes
  • Ben Howland
  • Mike White
  • Avery Johnson
  • Bruce Pearl
  • Mike Anderson
  • Andy Kennedy
  • Billy Kennedy
  • Bryce Drew
  • Mark Fox

That’s a stacked list. And Missouri has to understand this is an extremely important hire if it wants to keep up.

It’s hard to know what names will be in the mix from a power conference perspective, but these are ones you’ll likely hear on the mid-major front: Kevin Keatts (UNC Wilmington), King Rice (Monmouth), Dan Muller (Illinois State), Kermit Davis (MTSU), Steve Forbes (ETSU), and Matt McCall (Chattanooga).

The two under the radar picks I’d go with as of today would be Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

The Commodores are playing their best basketball of the season, and if they beat Florida on Saturday, they’ll be highly motivated to grab a few SEC tournament wins to strengthen their case for an NCAA at-large bid.

Vandy has already proven that it can beat the league’s top teams (Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas), so that’s another boost of confidence.

And then there’s the Aggies. A lot of people forget that this team was picked third heading into the season. Texas A&M isn’t the third best team right now, but it does have enough talent to surprise people in Nashville.

Billy Kennedy’s team has won three of four and hosts Kentucky in the regular season finale. If the Aggies can keep that one close (or even pull off an upset), there’s a chance that they’ll spoil the party for several teams next week.