We’re only a day away from Thanksgiving, but as always, there are plenty of good college basketball games on the schedule.
The SEC went 2-1 yesterday, with Alabama and Texas A&M earning impressive wins and LSU having its momentum halted by a stellar Notre Dame team.
Wednesday’s action features five SEC teams, with LSU, Tennessee, and Ole Miss all competing in tournament play.
As always, my predictions are based strictly on team analysis and who I think will win each game.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 45-6
Tennessee vs. No. 18 Purdue – Noon EST, ESPN2 (Battle 4 Atlantis, Game Preview)
The Boilermakers are one of only six teams that are averaging over 100 points per game this season and recently made a school-record 19 3-pointers in a win over Fairfield.
So this will certainly be a difficult challenge for Tennessee.
Purdue also fields one of the bigger rosters in the country in terms of height, and that will be a huge asset against the Vols.
It’s difficult to know where Tennessee stands right now due to only playing games against Presbyterian and High Point, and while I think Rick Barnes will have his team ready defensively, I’m not sure the Vols can keep pace with the Boilermakers.
Purdue should win, but I don’t see it being a huge blowout or anything.
Prediction: Purdue 81, Tennessee 69
Stephen F. Austin at Mississippi State – 8 PM EST, SEC Network+
This is the toughest game on the schedule thus far for both teams, as neither have played elite competition.
Stephen F. Austin’s four wins? Longwood, St. Edwards, LeTourneau, and Howard Payne.
Mississippi State’s three wins? Alabama State, Florida A&M, and Green Bay.
So, those kind of games make it hard to get a true feel on where either team is at. But here are a few noteworthy stats that may help us:
- The Lumberjacks are the number one team in the country in forcing turnovers, but have turned it over themselves at least 20 times in all four games
- Mississippi State is ranked 15th nationally in forcing 20 turnovers per game
The Bulldogs’ athleticism may make it difficult for Kyle Keller’s squad to find an offensive flow, and that makes it hard to pick against Mississippi State.
Prediction: Mississippi State 75, Stephen F. Austin 67
Fort Wayne at No. 8 Kentucky – 8 PM EST, SEC Network
The young Cats return to action a few days removed from a 70-62 win over Troy.
It’s clear that Kentucky is still trying to figure out how to put together a full 40 minutes of basketball, and that’s something that’ll obviously need to get worked out before SEC play arrives.
Kevin Knox and Hamidou Diallo continue to be the Wildcats’ most versatile players on both ends of the floor, but it’s the emergence of point guard Quade Green that should give John Calipari and company a boost going forward.
Green has scored at least 13 points in three of the past four games, and his role is becoming more steady in playing 26 minutes in back-to-back contests.
As for Fort Wayne, the Mastodons are riding a three-game winning streak, and senior guard Bryson Scott is scoring early in often in piling up a 22 points per game average this season.
Kentucky is simply the better team here, and I can’t see Fort Wayne shooting the ball well enough to keep this close.
Prediction: Kentucky 80, Fort Wayne 56
LSU vs. Marquette – 8 PM EST, ESPN2 (Maui Invitational)
Losing Brandon Sampson for 3-4 weeks is a big blow for LSU, as I love how he’s been playing in Will Wade’s system.
I mentioned this on Twitter, and it’s worth repeating: There’s no reason for LSU fans to panic after the 39-point loss to the Irish.
The Tigers were absolutely spent after the comeback win against Michigan, and now with little turnaround time to prepare for a solid Marquette squad, this may be another difficult matchup.
You never really know how a team will respond to a blowout loss, but I do think LSU makes this a game for a while before running out of gas.
Prediction: Marquette 78, LSU 71
Ole Miss vs. Rice – 10 PM EST, ESPNU (MGM Grand Main Event)
The Rebels couldn’t find enough defense to slow down Justin Bibbins and Utah a few nights ago, but get a better matchup against the Owls.
Rice is off to a 1-3 start this year, with the lone win coming at Northwestern State.
These two teams have had a common opponent, as Ole Miss scored a five-point win over Georgia State while Rice fell at home to the Panthers by 21.
There’s no reason to make this anything more than it is, and the fact is that the Rebels are the more complete team. Terence Davis is playing extremely well to start the season, and he’ll fuel this team going forward.
This will be a guard-oriented game that features a nice pace, but Ole Miss’ backcourt will be too much to handle.
Prediction: Ole Miss 87, Rice 70
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