There was a surprising result from yesterday’s SEC hoops action, as South Dakota State went to Oxford and picked up a victory over Ole Miss after knocking down 18 3-pointers.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt struggled early but found a way to knock off Radford behind a career-high 27 points from Riley LaChance.
The Rebels’ loss gave me another mark in the loss column, but the predictions are still going strong after the few weeks of the season.
There are four games on Wednesday’s SEC slate, and just like we saw in the Vandy and Ole Miss games, the matchups may be more intriguing than you think.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 70-12
Mercer at Tennessee – 7 PM EST, SEC Network+ (Game Preview)
I’ve said this many times throughout the first few weeks, but it feels like Tennessee’s the most underrated team in the conference.
The Vols proved their worth at the Battle 4 Atlantis, and if not for second half struggles combined with Villanova’s stellar play, they could’ve had a shot at winning the whole thing.
But now Rick Barnes’ team must turn their attention to a sneaky good Mercer team that’s loaded with experience. The Bears rank 11th in the nation in KenPom’s experience rating and have nine players that average 15 minutes or more.
Ria’n Holland is the name to watch for, as the senior guard is already averaging 20.2 points per game this season and went for 29 in a win over Drexel.
The problem that Mercer is going to run into is on the boards. Tennessee is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country in ranking ninth nationally with 15.4 per game.
I think the Vols’ athleticism will allow for a lot of second chance opportunities, and that’ll be the difference in the game.
However, considering that Mercer’s only losses are by nine to both UCF and Colorado, this one doesn’t feel like a blowout.
Prediction: Tennessee 78, Mercer 69
Auburn at Dayton – 7 PM EST, CBS Sports Network
These two avoided playing each other in the Charleston Classic, but certainly got a chance get a little advancing scouting in.
The Tigers are five days removed from scoring 119 points against Winthrop, which is pretty impressive when you consider that Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy are still sidelined due to the FBI investigation.
Meanwhile, Dayton is in rebuild mode under Anthony Grant, and the Flyers are still tying to find their way after a 3-2 start.
A couple of numbers to think about heading into this one:
- Auburn is shooting 57.6 percent from two (41st nationally) while Dayton is allowing opponents to shoot 51.9 percent from two (252nd nationally)
- Dayton is shooting only 33.9 percent from 3-point land (211th nationally) while one of Auburn’s biggest weaknesses is allowing opponents to knock down 3-pointers (272nd nationally at 37.4 percent)
This game will be all about pace. Bruce Pearl wants his team to play fast, and Grant wants his team to slow the tempo and make this a half-court game.
Temple had success in forcing Auburn to play its style, and that didn’t work out well for Pearl and company.
However, Dayton is not Temple at this stage of the season, and I feel like the Tigers will find enough in transition to score a solid road win.
Prediction: Auburn 76, Dayton 72
UT Martin at LSU – 8 PM EST, SEC Network+
While it’s clear that LSU has more work to do on the defensive end of the floor, the offensive side has looked really good at times.
We knew coming into the season that Tremont Waters had a chance to be a special talent, and he’s already showing that after his 39-point performance against Marquette.
Waters is making everyone around him better, and his continued improvement will go a long way toward this LSU team being in position to surprise a lot of people in the SEC this year.
After leading UT Martin to a 22-win season in his first year on the job, Anthony Stewart has a lot of new faces on the roster and it’s showing in the 1-5 start.
This is simply not a good matchup for the Skyhawks, and the Tigers should score early and often in cruising to victory.
Prediction: LSU 90, UT Martin 61
Louisiana Tech at No. 24 Alabama – 8 PM EST, SEC Network+ (Game Preview)
The Bulldogs take care of the ball very well and are ranked 10th in the nation with only 10.0 turnovers per game.
That statistic will give Eric Konkol’s squad a chance to win, as will having four double-digit scorers (all guards) that can all impact the game in different ways.
Alabama already has one advantage in that it’ll get to play with five players on the court, which is an upgrade from the 11-minute stretch in the second half against Minnesota where the Crimson Tide only sported three players on the court (and still almost won).
Collin Sexton is going to be the biggest key to this game, which should come as no surprise. His ability to get the ball down the court and find open lanes to score will be important, although it may not be easy given Louisiana Tech’s quality guard play.
If Donta Hall and Daniel Giddens can own the glass and add some extra scoring opportunities, Alabama should be fine.
And if things get off course, Avery Johnson can turn to the three-man game to mount a comeback.
The Tide grind out the win.
Prediction: Alabama 81, Louisiana Tech 74
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