Saturday’s matchup in Tuscon between Alabama and Arizona will showcase NBA-potential at almost every position.
Both teams may also see one of their NBA prospects for the first time this year as they return from injury.
Rawle Alkins, Arizona’s 6’5 sophomore phenom, could be set to make his season debut after Sean Miller explained that if Alkins could complete the next two full practices, that he would play on Saturday.
Braxton Key, Alabama’s 6’8 sophomore utility player who has been sitting with a meniscus injury, is more doubtful to play, but Avery Johnson hasn’t ruled it out. At the least, Key should be back for Alabama’s “neutral-site” game in Huntsville vs. Mercer on December 19.
Both teams have managed to play well without one of their stars however.
Arizona picked up a huge win on Tuesday, beating a No. 7 Texas A&M team that had been wrecking opponents. The win helped further stop the bleeding for the Wildcats who had a disastrous run in the Bahamas, losing three games in a row.
Alabama grabbed a large home win as well on Wednesday, beating the A-10 favorite Rhode Island Rams in a game that saw leading-scorer Collin Sexton sit for over 20 minutes with an eye injury.
Players to Watch
Donta Hall (Alabama)
On first glance, it may appear that Hall has been a dominating inside force defensively this season since he has been averaging almost three blocks a game. However, during the games against BYU and Minnesota—teams with veteran playmakers at center—Hall struggled to keep the ball from getting deep into the post. Once the ball would get so close to the basket, it eliminated the advantage of Hall’s insane athleticism.
Hall will have his chance to show scouts that he is capable of guarding an NBA-level big man on Saturday against DeAndre Ayton.
On the offensive side of the floor, Hall has been an absolute monster over the past few games. While he has been of the most efficient scorers in college basketball, his shooting percentage numbers are clearly inflated because of the high volume of dunks he gets.
Hall can sometimes struggle to control the ball when receiving passes in traffic, but his passing ability and jump hook have steadily improved.
DeAndre Ayton (Arizona)
The 7’1 freshman center is almost universally featured in NBA mock drafts as a top three pick in the 2018 draft. He’s averaging 19.6 points per game while dominating the boards, especially on the defensive side of the court.
Despite his huge frame, Ayton is more agile than the typical center. He even steps out and shoots a few 3-pointers per game, though he only shoots about 26 percent from deep. Ayton shoots a good number of free-throws per game (6) for a big man as well, where he makes a solid 73 percent.
Alabama’s bigs have struggled against quality low-post scorers all year, so it will be interesting to see how the Tide responds to an NBA lottery-level talent like Ayton.
How Alabama Can Win
Alabama has to get out in transition. This year’s team already plays at a quicker pace than it has in years, but that change of pace is warranted; the Crimson Tide have their most success when making transition buckets.
Alabama will need to control the boards and use its abundance of long guards to make long outlet passes and try to get quick baskets.
On defense, Alabama should place a priority on keeping the ball out of the paint. This is a solid defensive team per almost every metric, but when they are giving up buckets, it’s because they can’t keep the ball in front of them.
With the talent that Arizona has at every position, Alabama will need to make the Wildcats settle for jump shots and hope for the best.
How Arizona Can Win
Arizona is dangerous because they can beat you in a variety of ways. The roster is littered with talented players who can score creatively.
The Wildcats have competent deep threats in potential All-American Alonzo Trier and Brandon Randolph. They have dangerous low post scorers in Ayton and Dusan Ristic, and they have scoring punch off the bench with Hoover, Alabama product Dylan Smith.
Arizona needs to play inside out against Alabama whenever possible. When the Tide has struggled on defense, it’s been from an inability to stay in front of quick guards and an inability to keep the ball out of the deep post.
If the Wildcats can get to the bucket early, it will open up their entire arsenal of weapons.
Phil’s Prediction
Over recent years, Alabama has had limited success when traveling West for non-conference games against PAC-12 opponents, taking losses in competitive games to tough Oregon and UCLA squads.
This will be a similar test.
Arizona gets one of their biggest stars back, the game is in Tucson, and it doesn’t start until 9:00 PM Central.
That looks like a recipe for a big home win for the Wildcats.
Prediction: Arizona 81, Alabama 67