Four SEC teams were ranked in this week’s AP poll, and several others landed in the others receiving votes section.
Yes, SEC basketball is in good shape, and it could get even better with a victory tonight for undefeated Mississippi State.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the pick.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 102-20
Mississippi State (8-0) at No. 25 Cincinnati (7-2) – 7 PM EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)
This is Mississippi State’s chance to prove the naysayers wrong.
Myself and many others have questioned just how good the Bulldogs are due to them having the fifth weakest schedule in the entire country, but it’s understandable why that’s the case.
As one of the youngest teams in the nation last year, Ben Howland’s squad struggled to win close games. During its seven-game losing streak in SEC player, Mississippi State lost six of those seven games by seven points or less.
So, this favorable non-conference schedule was designed in a way that would help this still inexperienced team find ways to win close games, and the Bulldogs have done just that in starting off 8-0.
However, this is where business picks up.
Not only is Mississippi State playing its first road game of the season, but it’s playing a Cincinnati team that head into the game angry after losing back-to-back games to Xavier and Florida.
The Bearcats have been excellent on the defensive end of the floor, and these stats back that up:
- Opponents are shooting 38.8 percent inside the 3-point arc (2nd nationally)
- Opponents are shooting 36.8 percent from the floor (11th nationally)
- Opponents are scoring 61.8 points per game (20th nationally)
As for Mississippi State’s defensive stats? They are very similar:
- Opponents are shooting 42.3 percent inside the 3-point arc (23rd nationally)
- Opponents are shooting 37.5 percent from the floor (17th nationally)
- Opponents are scoring 61.9 points per game (21st nationally)
Both teams aren’t great from the free-throw line, and the Bulldogs have had their issues with committing turnovers and shooting the ball from outside.
Those latter two problems could be what decides this game.
Cincinnati is essentially in desperation mode after losing to the two best teams on its non-conference schedule, and quality wins will now be hard to come by with Mississippi State and UCLA being the only two chances left before AAC play.
What also makes me lean towards the Bearcats is that they’ve played elite competition in Xavier and Florida, while the Bulldogs’ best opponent thus far is an OVC frontrunner in Jacksonville State.
Mississippi State has the talent to win this game and be a potential NCAA Tournament contender, but this is a difficult spot with Cincinnati being in a must-win situation.
Prediction: Cincinnati 69, Mississippi State 62
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