After a hot start to the regular season, the SEC finally had a not-so hot day.
The league struggled to a 5-4 mark on Saturday, with LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Florida all losing despite coming into the day as favorites.
However, things could back on track in a big way on Sunday with two teams having opportunities to take down Top 10 opponents.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 111-24
Vanderbilt (3-6) at No. 5 Arizona State (9-0) – 2 PM EST, Pac-12 Network
Here’s a stat that I threw out earlier in the week:
With undefeated Arizona State up next, here’s the current state of Vandy’s non-conference schedule: Combined record of the six power conference opponents plus MTSU is 54-8. AZ St/TCU haven’t lost, MTSU/Seton Hall/UVA with only one loss.
— Blake Lovell (@theblakelovell) December 11, 2017
And while the numbers have changed with games being played since then (MTSU and Seton Hall have both added a loss), the meaning remains the same.
Yes, the Commodores have played a brutal schedule thus far, and it gets even worse here with a trip to Tempe.
The Sun Devils have been absolutely on fire on the offensive side of the court, and here are the numbers to prove it:
- Fifth nationally with 91.8 points per game
- Seventh nationally in shooting 52.0 percent from the floor
- Eighth nationally in shooting 42.7 percent from 3-point range
The driving force of that offense has been senior guard Tra Holder, who has dropped 24 or more points in four games already, which included a 35-point performance against UC Irvine and a 40-point performance against Xavier.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s biggest problem has been offense. The Commodores are shooting 30.8 precent from the 3-point line (303rd nationally) and scoring only 68.7 points per contest (294th nationally), so this isn’t the type of opponent you want to be playing when you can’t figure out how to score.
Arizona State has shown no signs of slowing down, and if it can push the tempo with ease, this game may not be pretty.
Prediction: Arizona State 84, Vanderbilt 65
No. 7 North Carolina (9-1) at No. 20 Tennessee (7-1) – 3 PM EST, ESPN
The biggest game of the weekend in the SEC, and if it’s anywhere close to the game we saw last year in Chapel Hill, we’re set for an entertaining matchup.
The Vols have obviously been the surprise of the conference, and it’s important to remember that they’re a bad half against No. 1 Villanova away from being undefeated.
Aside from the blowout loss to Michigan State, the Tar Heels haven’t missed a beat in scoring impressive wins over teams like Arkansas, Michigan, and Northern Iowa.
And while we all thought it would be Joel Berry getting all the attention, it’s been the play of Luke Maye that has helped North Carolina jump out to a quick start. The junior is averaging a double-double with 19.9 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, and he is undoubtedly one of the most improved players in all of college basketball.
As for where this game will be decided? On the glass.
In a development that should surprise no one, Roy Williams once again has the best team in the country in terms of rebounding margin, with the Tar Heels outrebounding opponents by 13.9 per game. Tennessee hasn’t been bad on the boards either (146th nationally with a 2.3 rebounding margin), but it’ll have to kick it up a notch in this one.
In last year’s game, North Carolina grabbed 22 offensive rebounds, so there’s no doubt that Barnes will make that a huge focus. If the Vols can limit those second chance opportunities, they’ll have a much better chance of winning.
Another area that’ll decide the outcome will be 3-point shooting. Tennessee ranks 24th in the country at 41.2 percent per contest while North Carolina isn’t far behind at 39.9 percent.
The difference is how each team defends the perimeter, with the Tar Heels allowing teams to shoot 38.2 percent from long distance (302nd nationally) while the Vols allow 34.6 percent (179th nationally).
Tennessee is simply outworking everyone by playing tough on both ends of the floor, and I have zero doubt that Rick Barnes’ squad will be ready for the challenge against the defending national champions.
This is one of the biggest games in recent memory in Knoxville, and I think the combination of the atmosphere and hard-nosed defense leads the Vols to victory.
Prediction: Tennessee 75, North Carolina 73
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