After a 10 day lay-off for final exams, Alabama gets back to action in Huntsville, AL for a “neutral-site” game against Mercer on Tuesday night.
Fans at the sold-out Von Braun Center will likely see last year’s leading scorer, Braxton Key, for the first time this year as he returns from a meniscus injury.
Although the Crimson Tide didn’t win their last game at Arizona, they showed that they are a team that can compete with any team in the country. As talented as Alabama is this season though, there shouldn’t be any more talk of moral victories.
Now, Alabama (7-3) will look for a resume-boosting victory versus the Mercer Bears—a team that will likely finish with a top-100 RPI and be a factor in the Southern Conference race.
Mercer (6-5) is coming off a 95-85 road loss to LaSalle on Sunday.
Other notable games on their schedule so far include losses to Tennessee and Colorado, with their best win being on the road at Liberty.
Players to Watch
Braxton Key (Alabama)
Key is one of the most versatile players in the SEC.
In 2017-2018, he earned All-Freshman SEC honors while leading Alabama in scoring with over 12 points per game. At 6’8 and a solid 225 pounds, Key has the capabilities of guarding multiple positions.
For Alabama, Key will most often play the power forward position defensively. Offensively, he has elite ball-handling and vision for a big man. He can play inside, where he has a nice array of pivot moves, or outside where he shot a respectable 33 percent from deep last year.
Avery Johnson uses an NBA philosophy of highlighting his players’ strengths, and will often design plays to isolate Key in the post when he is matched up against a smaller opponent (you’ll see him do this with Dazon Ingram in bigger lineups too).
This season, since Key won’t have to be the lead-dog in the scoring department with Collin Sexton around, I expect his efficiency numbers to rise.
Ria’n Holland (Mercer)
Though he’s not very big at 6’0 and 152 pounds, Holland is one of the nation’s best shooters.
He’s currently shooting a blistering 60.4 percent from 3-point range while making almost 93 percent of his free-throw attempts.
His teammate, Stephon Jelks, has been shooting it well too. He’s over 59 percent from deep and has yet to miss a free throw this season in 16 attempts.
That’s enough to make a Crimson Tide fan swoon since Alabama has started the year as one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country.
How Alabama Can Win
Offensively, Alabama needs to play at its own tempo, which is generally fast.
Mercer is one of the slowest teams in Division I, so the Tide do not need to find themselves being lulled into a slow game when they will have the clear advantage athletically at almost every position.
Also, interior defense is not Bob Hoffman’s calling card. In fact, the Bears are almost the worst shot-blocking team in the country so far this season (349th). It doesn’t help their shot-blocking numbers that they play mostly zone as well.
Alabama should look to score the ball inside and use their clear length advantage to get some second chance points from Key and Donta Hall.
Some early 3-pointers from Huntsville-native John Petty could liven up his hometown crowd as well.
How Mercer Can Win
Mercer is the fourth best 3-point shooting team in the country. If Alabama can’t use their defensive length to frustrate Hoffman’s shooters, then Mercer will be bombing away all night.
Alabama hasn’t seen a lot of zone this season, so Mercer has an opportunity to be an enigma defensively. With the Tide not playing on their home court, shooting could be a little more of an issue and the zone defense may exacerbate that further.
The biggest problem with a zone defense is rebounding out of it however. It’ll be interesting to see how Mercer handles the boards against Alabama’s size, especially when playing zone.
The biggest reason to believe that the Bears can win this game is that they have one of the oldest and mature teams in the country.
All five of their likely starters will be seniors. These guys have been battle-tested for four years, and the moment won’t be too big for them if the game is close heading into the final minutes.
Phil’s Prediction
Alabama may sputter a bit early after the 10-day lay-off and with re-acclimating Key into the lineup.
However, I think Alabama’s length will give Mercer trouble on both ends and the Tide’s athleticism will carry them to victory.
Prediction: Alabama 76, Mercer 61