Inside the Numbers: Could Vanderbilt’s offensive struggles be a long-term problem?

On West End, there seems to be an assumption floating around that Vanderbilt’s so-far disappointing 2017-18 season represents a warm-up for a 2018-19 season in which the ‘Dores will run rampant over the SEC.

This year’s team might be falling woefully short of expectations, but wait ‘til next year when head coach Bryce Drew brings in his star recruiting class and VU fields a top-15 team.

But with how severe the current Commodores have struggled, it’s time to seriously reconsider this assumption.

Now, I’m not saying Vanderbilt is doomed in the short and long terms — not yet, at least.

Having said that, there are a few reasons why adding two or three 5-star recruits might not solve the Commodores’ problems.

The most amazing (and perplexing) aspect of Vanderbilt’s 3-7 start to me is that Drew’s team has three high-level seniors who have helped lead two straight teams to the NCAA Tournament. Riley LaChance, Jeff Roberson, and Matthew Fisher-Davis are all proven, quality SEC starters; that any team can run out those three surrounded by decent talent and win only three out of 10 games to start the year is puzzling.

What’s more, LaChance and Roberson are having perfectly fine seasons, and upgrading from those two to incoming freshmen Darius Garland and Simi Shittu might not make a program-changing difference.

247Sports still lists Garland at only 170 pounds, and even after adding weight he’s likely to struggle defensively in the SEC. Shittu brings dynamic playmaking Vanderbilt hasn’t had from a frontcourt player in a long time, but his lack of an outside shot makes his fit with Djery Baptiste, Ejike Obinna, and/or Clevon Brown a bit awkward.

There’s no doubt that losing Fisher-Davis won’t be much of a blow if he continues to shoot so poorly. But will he really stay at 27 percent from three all year? I doubt it, and he still sucks in his defender just by stepping on the court, taking away potential help defense and thereby helping Vanderbilt’s spacing.

At some point, it’ll also be important to consider what role Drew and his offense are playing in the team’s 85th ranking in KenPom’s offensive efficiency, easily the program’s worst since 2013-14.

Vanderbilt found success on offense last year after Drew tweaked his system to include more of Kevin Stallings’ concepts that his players were used to. We’ve seen a general lack of player movement this year compared to the last few; it’s possible that this could be due to poor coaching on offense. It’s too early to say with any certainty that this is the case. But if it is, 5-star recruits won’t change that.

Despite how bad Vanderbilt looks, however, there’s some evidence that the 3-7 start is closer to an extended slump than a true reflection of the team’s ability.

Vanderbilt may have lost two good three-point shooters from last year’s team in Luke Kornet and Nolan Cressler, but a drop-off from 37.6 percent three-point shooting (61st nationally last year) to 28.5 percent (335th this year) isn’t logical.

Data from Hoop-Math.com shows the Commodores are actually taking fewer two-point jump shots as a percentage of their overall shots, and yet their efficiency is way down.

The tables below show why.

Vanderbilt is shooting slightly better (and more often) at the rim as last year, but the Commodores’ jumpers aren’t falling. Poor shooters like Saben Lee and Clevon Brown help bring those percentages down, but Roberson and Fisher-Davis are shooting career-lows on two- and three-point jumpers, respectively.

What stands out the most to me is Joe Toye’s 18.5 percent three-point shooting, particularly since he’s taken over 40 percent of his shots from three both this year and last. Lee probably shouldn’t take as many threes as he has, but regression toward the mean from both Fisher-Davis and Toye would probably drag Vanderbilt back to respectability.

It’s easy to blame the Commodores’ offensive ineptness on a lack of spacing, but Sunday’s loss at Arizona State weakened that argument.

Baptiste and Obinna — Vanderbilt’s “space killers” — didn’t play a single minute in the game, and Brown played only nine minutes. Drew started the game with Roberson at center anchoring a small-ball lineup, and Roberson played 31 minutes at center over the course of the game.

A lineup of Lee, LaChance, Fisher-Davis, Toye, and Roberson should offer plenty of offense in theory, yet Vanderbilt only mustered 0.86 points per possession against an Arizona State defense that ranked in the 150s nationally in KenPom efficiency heading into the game.

Either a number of Vanderbilt’s key offensive players are all suffering prolonged slumps, or there are serious foundational issues at play that might not be solved by Garland and Shittu’s arrival. Maybe both are problems.

Regardless, the underlying reasons for the Commodores’ offensive toothlessness aren’t obvious through 10 games.

The source of the struggles and the long-term significance they hold are for you to decide.

Robbie Weinstein is a recent graduate of Vanderbilt now studying at Northwestern's graduate journalism program. A native of Dayton, Ohio, he served as the sports editor for the Vanderbilt Hustler during the 2016-17 school year and has covered Vanderbilt basketball for three years. He currently works as a game-night PR assistant for the Chicago Bulls.