We’re only a week away from the start of conference play in the SEC, and several teams have an opportunity to add another quality win on their résumé.
Five SEC teams are in action on Saturday, and while most of the games seem predictable, we could be in for some thrilling contests.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 130-27
No. 21 Tennessee at Wake Forest – 12:30 PM EST, ESPN2
The Demon Deacons had a horrible start to the year with three straight losses to Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Drake, but are now riding a six-game winning streak heading into this one.
The key to this game will be defending the perimeter, as both teams shoot it well from outside. Of course, Wake Forest is considerably worse at giving up 3-pointers, with the Demon Deacons ranking 326th nationally in allowing opponents to shoot 39.6 percent.
This feels like a game where we could see an upset due to the Vols hitting the road two days before Christmas. And again, Wake Forest has turned things around after that ugly three-game stretch early on.
I’ve rewritten this section twice with a different winner each time, and as I always say when doing that, I have zero confidence in this pick.
Prediction: Wake Forest 71, Tennessee 68
UConn at Auburn – 2:30 PM EST, ESPN2
UConn is capable of winning this game, but shooting 40.7 percent from the floor (321st nationally) and 31.6 percent from long range (298th nationally) isn’t ideal against an Auburn squad that’s averaging 85.5 points per game.
The Huskies are coming off a 15-point loss at Arizona, although they didn’t play particular awful in that one.
I’ve called Auburn an NCAA Tournament team since May, and even with Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy still on the sidelines, this looks like a group that can win in March.
The defense has made significant strides, and Bruce Pearl is getting contributions from pretty much everyone he puts on the floor.
Winning at Murray State gave the Tigers even more confidence, and they should use that to grab another big win here.
Prediction: Auburn 75, UConn 69
No. 7 Kentucky vs. UCLA – 4 PM EST (New Orleans, LA)
This game won’t be at the level of the two we saw between these teams last season, but it should still provide plenty of entertainment.
UCLA will need to push the tempo and find easy baskets in transition, as scoring against this long and athletic Kentucky team in the halfcourt will be a challenge.
I’ve loved the way the Wildcats have played the past two Saturdays against Monmouth and Virginia Tech, and their ability to knock down 3-pointers will continue to be tested as the season goes along.
John Calipari’s squad has found a rhythm as of late, and I see the solid play continuing in scoring a second straight win over the Bruins.
Prediction: Kentucky 83, UCLA 78
Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss – 7 PM EST (Jackson, MS)
Southern Miss enters this game having lost by 53 at Florida State on Thursday, and with the Eagles earning four of their seven wins against non-Division I competition, this figures to get ugly in a hurry.
Even with the 10-1 record, I’m still hesitant on whether to call Mississippi State an upper-tier team in the SEC, and we’ll find out a lot more in their first three SEC games (vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss, at Florida).
Another blowout win for Ben Howland’s team.
Prediction: Mississippi State 81, Southern Miss 61
Missouri vs. Illinois – 8 PM EST, ESPN2 (St. Louis, MO)
If Missouri doesn’t give away the West Virginia game late in the second half, the Tigers are a Top 25 team right now that’s riding a nine-game winning streak.
However, 10-2 is still a good place to be, and Illinois would love to feel the same way.
The Fighting Illini have lost five of seven, and their best win of the season came against DePaul back on November 17.
The best bet for Illinois is to push the pace and make Missouri’s bigs run the floor while trying to stay out of foul trouble. Another area where the Illini have excelled is on the offensive glass, as they are 14th in the nation with 14.1 offensive rebounds per game.
Unfortunately, Mizzou’s size may make that number difficult to achieve.
I like the Tigers to stop the four-game Braggin’ Rights losing streak and head into SEC play with a lot of momentum.
Prediction: Missouri 76, Illinois 73