Saturday’s SEC opening tilt will feature two teams that are in completely different situations.
Despite several internal issues that have led to some of its top players missing games, No. 5 Texas A&M (11-1) put together one of the top non-conference resumes in the country.
The Aggies have wins against West Virginia (on a neutral floor), Oklahoma State, USC, and Penn State to go along with only one loss against Pac-12 stalwart Arizona in Phoenix.
Alabama (8-4) adopted a schedule this year that granted opportunities for those types of signature wins as well, but didn’t capitalize fully, taking losses to Minnesota, UCF, Arizona and Texas.
The Tide’s best victories are against BYU and Rhode Island to go along with a slew of quality mid-majors wins.
The Aggies will be competing against Alabama without the aid of their leading scorer, junior wing DJ Hogg, who remains suspended by Billy Kennedy. At 6’9, Hogg has been shooting 50% percent from deep on 68 attempts while scoring nearly 15 points a game.
Texas A&M will also be without the services of their best returning guard, Admon Gilder, who remains out while recovering from knee surgery.
The Crimson Tide has a lineup issue of a different kind. Despite Avery Johnson saying for weeks that he would like to set a rotation of eight or nine guys, all 11 available players played in the first half of last week’s poor outing against Texas.
Last season, after a disappointing start, Johnson settled into a rotation of nine players heading into SEC play which helped the Tide to surprise the league on its way to double digit SEC wins.
For this reason, it’ll be interesting to see who plays for Alabama on Saturday.
Game Details
Date: December 29, 2017
Time: 6 p.m. EST
Location: Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, AL
TV: ESPN2
Players to Watch
Tyler Davis (Texas A&M)
Davis is an old-school back-to-the-basket big. He has soft hands and touch around the rim and uses his big body (6’10, 266 lbs) well.
The Aggies also have potential lottery pick Robert Williams who basically serves the same purpose as Alabama’s Donta Hall—get high percentage dunks and block shots.
However, Davis is the featured big man on the offensive end.
His best skill is sealing defenders so close to the basket that once he receives the entry pass, there’s no way they can stop him. If Alabama can keep him hanging around the free-throw line, then his production will tail off tremendously.
Riley Norris
The SEC part of the schedule is what separates the men from the boys. Alabama is going to rely on someone who has been through the fire of SEC play to help lead the young players through the challenges of conference play.
Who better for the Tide to rely on than their lone senior, a 23 year old who already graduated a couple of weeks ago.
Norris’ four years of experience, his basketball IQ and his ability to get what Johnson calls “dirty rebounds” may be the difference in quite a few games for the Tide.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all for his minutes to increase significantly, starting with Saturday night.
How Texas A&M Can Win
The Aggies’ only glaring deficiencies have to do with turnovers.
They give the ball away too much on offense (218th in the country) and don’t take it away enough on defense (303rd). Though Alabama doesn’t light the world on fire in those statistics either, the Aggies clearly have to take better care of the ball in this game.
One department that helps Texas A&M compensate for their high number of turnovers is their offensive rebounding; A&M is one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country.
Clearly, the Aggies have a size advantage on most teams, especially considering that one of their typical lineups include three 6’10 players—Williams, Davis, and Tonny Trocha-Morelos—playing at the same time.
Against an average rebounding team like Alabama, the Aggies will need to crash the offensive glass at all times.
How Alabama Can Win
Alabama has been better in transition than in their half court sets thanks to Collin Sexton’s break-neck speed.
Texas A&M’s willingness to crash the offensive boards could allow the Crimson Tide to get extra fast-break opportunities. The Tide will need to turn those opportunities into made 3-pointers and easy layups if they hope to compete with the Aggies.
Alabama will need those easy buckets because points are hard to come by against Texas A&M, with the Aggies owning the third best defensive unit in the country according to Ken Pomeroy.
Defensively, Alabama needs to keep Davis and Williams away from the basket. With both of A&M’s best 3-point shooters out, the Tide can afford to take the risk of leaving other Aggie players open from deep.
This will allow them to pack the paint and help Donta Hall and Daniel Giddens stay out of foul trouble.
Phil’s Prediction
While it is certainly helpful for the Tide that Texas A&M will be without two of its best players, it’s hard to have any faith in Alabama at the moment.
Even in its wins, Alabama has struggled at times, having to claw back for victories against UT-Arlington, Mercer, and La Tech.
Texas A&M meanwhile has weathered every storm while only losing a respectable “neutral” site game to Arizona in the closing minute.
If the Tide can find early success and the likely sold-out crowd gets into the game, then they’ll have a chance, but I don’t see it happening that way.
Prediction: Texas A&M 74, Alabama 64