LSU picked up a solid win on Thursday at Memphis, which gave the SEC another nice victory in non-conference play.
But with the pre-conference slate just about over, most people are turning their attention to the start of league play on Saturday.
Of course, Kentucky isn’t focused on the weekend just yet, as it has to host a familiar opponent before welcoming Georgia to town for a Sunday tilt.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to today’s pick.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 135-30
Louisville (10-2) at No. 16 Kentucky (9-2) – 1 PM EST, CBS
Throw out the records when these two get together, although neither team is as bad off as some seem to think.
Louisville has been fine post-Rick Pitino, and David Padgett deserves a lot of credit for keeping things on track. The Cardinals have lost to the two best opponents on their schedule thus far (Purdue and Seton Hall), but both games could have gone either way.
Meanwhile, Kentucky is still far from where it wants to be, and the recent loss to UCLA wasn’t ideal after a really good performance against Virginia Tech the week before.
However, the Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country, and that talent remains good enough to win an SEC regular season title. John Calipari knew this would be a process, and Kentucky’s lack of dominant wins thus far have shown that to be the case.
The key to this game could be on the glass. Both teams obviously have plenty of size and length across the board, so the team that grabs more second chance opportunities will be in a good position to win.
Taking care of the ball will be just as crucial, as the Cardinals understand the challenges of playing at Rupp Arena. The good news is that Louisville has been fine in that category in committing only 11.8 turnovers per game (48th nationally).
Then there’s the question of how well the Wildcats shoot from beyond the arc. We’ve seen some good and some bad in that area, so if Louisville is able to match Kentucky’s aggressiveness in the lane, it could force more outside shots.
This a game where it feels like both teams are fairly even in many different areas, so I’ll do what I always do and give the nod to the home team.
Kentucky gets back on track with a big win before jumping into SEC competition this weekend.
Prediction: Kentucky 79, Louisville 74
[smbtoolbar]