In a matchup between two of the most befuddling teams in college basketball, whether one goes cold or not will probably decide the game’s outcome.
Vanderbilt and Florida have posted a 13-11 combined record entering SEC play, a surprisingly weak mark for two teams voted in the conference’s top half in the preseason poll. While Florida has at least earned great wins against Gonzaga and Cincinnati, Vanderbilt has lost to every quality team on its schedule.
But with how inconsistent the teams are, that might not matter Saturday in Gainesville.
Both the Gators and Commodores feature two players who have knocked down threes at healthy 40-plus percent rates this year — Jalen Hudson and Chris Chiozza for Florida and Vanderbilt’s Riley LaChance and Jeff Roberson.
Both are scratching their heads regarding major slumps from their respective headliners: Florida’s KeVaughn Allen has fallen off from 37 percent three-point shooting on nearly six threes per game to 29 percent this year, while Matthew Fisher-Davis has dropped from 37.2 percent to 31.6 percent on similarly high volume.
Both teams have experienced glorious highs shooting the ball while turning around to go freezing cold right after. Vanderbilt followed an 11 of 23 showing from three against USC to shoot 4 of 18 against Virginia; it also followed up a 10 of 25 day against Kansas State to shoot 8 of 27 vs. Middle Tennessee. Florida came off a ridiculously hot 40 of 78 (51 percent) from three at the PK80 tournament in Portland, Oregon, to go 8 of 44 (18 percent) in its next two games, home losses to Florida State and Loyola Chicago.
In short, Vanderbilt’s struggles heretofore may not matter much since Florida lacks a dominant inside force. While other matchups of interest exist, how the ‘Dores and Gators shoot from three will probably determine the outcome on Saturday afternoon.
What, if anything, can Vanderbilt do to force Florida into cold shooting? One option might be for head coach Bryce Drew to give slightly more minutes to his traditional centers. While Djery Baptiste and Ejike Obinna suffocate Vanderbilt’s offense at times, Drew needs a presence at the rim to discourage Florida from driving to the hoop. Vanderbilt would then hope that Florida starts to jack up ill-advised threes, although that’s far from a guarantee.
Of course, playing Baptiste, Obinna, and even Clevon Brown comes with problems. Florida head coach Mike White is one of the sharpest and most innovative in the country, and I think he’ll be willing to have his team ignore Vanderbilt’s centers on defense to an extent we’ve only seen from Seton Hall.
The Commodores can’t win this game playing 4-on-5 on offense, so White could blow up my aforementioned strategy pretty quickly if he so chooses. Having said that, it’s worth a shot early in the game.
Vanderbilt will take solace, however, in the aforementioned fact that Florida isn’t strong in the paint. The Gators’ 48.5 percent two-point shooting ranks only 216th nationally, and Hoop-Math.com shows only 28.8 percent of their total shots come at the rim. When they do get to the hoop, the Gators shoot a just-OK 63.5 percent there.
For reference: While we think of Vanderbilt as a jump-shooting team (and the ‘Dores do rank 31st in the country in the percentage of their shots that come from three, according to KenPom.com), Drew’s team has taken 34.5 percent of its shots at the rim this year.
With 6’6” Jeff Roberson at center and little shot-blocking to speak of in its small-ball lineup, it helps that Florida isn’t great at exploiting Vanderbilt’s most serious and obvious weakness on defense.
With consecutive road games against Texas A&M and Missouri right after, Florida needs a win and should be ready for the Commodores.
Vanderbilt will have to play its best game of the season to taste victory, but most of these same players showed capable of earning surprise road wins last year. If the Commodores’ shots fall for the third game in a row, they’ll have a good shot to grab their third straight win in Gainesville.
If not, Vanderbilt must hope Florida lays bricks.