Another week of SEC basketball is here, and just like the previous ones, there’s no way to know how the games will unfold.
We’ve reached an era in the league where anyone can beat anyone, and we’ve seen that play out already over the first three weeks of action.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks, which are a little more abbreviated than usual due to travel issues.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 161-40
Georgia (11-5, 2-3) at LSU (11-5, 2-2) – 7 PM EST, ESPNU
Do we really have any idea what to expect from the Bulldogs at this point?
Just when we thought they were starting to find a rhythm after back-to-back home wins over Ole Miss and Alabama, they struggled mightily in losses to Missouri and South Carolina.
Meanwhile, LSU lost a tough one at home to Alabama after scoring impressive road victories at Texas A&M and Arkansas. The Tigers are still going to have their lapses at times, but they’re way further along than we expected them to be at this point.
We’ve quickly reached that stage of the conference season where your guess is as good as mine, but I have a hard time trusting Georgia right now after the sloppy home loss to the Gamecocks.
Prediction: LSU 70, Georgia 68
Vanderbilt (6-11, 1-4) at Mississippi State (13-4, 1-3) – 7 PM EST, SEC Network
The Commodores’ chances at making the NCAA Tournament for a third straight season are rather slim right now, which makes this is a must-win game for the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State cruised through its non-conference schedule, but the increased competition has certainly played a role in its 1-3 start to league play.
As is typically the case, Vanderbilt’s best shot at a win will be 3-point shooting, as the Commodores don’t have a consistent inside game to speak of.
If Bryce Drew’s team shoots it well, and Mississippi State continues its lackluster shooting from beyond the arc (336th nationally at 29.7 percent), things could get interesting.
But I feel like the Bulldogs’ size and athleticism will be a problem here for the visitors.
Prediction: Mississippi State 73, Vanderbilt 69
Ole Miss (10-7, 3-2) at Texas A&M (11-6, 0-5) – 9 PM EST, SEC Network
This is where we find out if the Aggies have what it takes to get back on track. Four of their next five SEC games are at home, so the opportunity is there to reel off five straight to move .500 in conference play.
But it won’t be easy. The Rebels got a big boost of momentum with the home win over Florida, so perhaps that carries over into this one.
However, just like a few other teams in the league, Ole Miss hasn’t been great on the road. Andy Kennedy’s squad has lost all three true road games this season, with all being double-digit losses.
That’s not an ideal setup heading into a game in College Station against a team that’s as desperate as it gets for a conference win.
Prediction: Texas A&M 78, Ole Miss 68
No. 18 Kentucky (14-3, 4-1) at South Carolina (11-6, 2-3) – 9 PM EST, ESPN
I’ve been impressed with Kentucky’s ability to reel off a few quality road wins already in SEC play.
The Wildcats won at LSU and Vanderbilt, and while those two teams may land outside of the NCAA Tournament picture, it’s never easy to win at either venue.
And here’s another situation that feels very similar. South Carolina is not a great offensive team, but the defense continues to be a huge asset for Frank Martin and company.
The Gamecocks’ win at Georgia was a surprise after starting 1-3, and that may have been the boost that this team needed heading into this type of game. It was the ninth time that South Carolina had held the opposition under 65 points, so that’s a good trend going forward.
This is going to be a physical game from start to finish, and that’s where the Gamecocks could cause some trouble. If the Wildcats let the physicality in the paint affect them, that could translate into a few too many 3-point attempts.
But just like in the Vanderbilt game, I see Kentucky’s length inside being a problem for a South Carolina team that can’t afford to have Chris Silva in foul trouble.
I’ll lean towards the Wildcats getting another solid road win.
Prediction: Kentucky 65, South Carolina 60
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