The SEC continues to provide competitive games across the board, as shown by 10 of the league’s 40 conference games being decided by a single possession.
We’re sure to see a couple more tight games on Saturday, with several matchups feeling like toss-ups.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
I’ve also included a 25-minute companion podcast below with extended thoughts on all seven games.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 165-43
LSU (11-6, 2-3) at Vanderbilt (6-12, 1-5) – 1 PM EST, SEC Network
The Tigers continue to be an efficient offensive team, and the main catalyst for that success has obviously been the player of Tremont Waters (16.3 ppg, 6.0 apg).
But he’ll have an intriguing matchup in this game as he goes against fellow freshman Saben Lee (10.9 ppg, 3.3 apg), who has been one of the bright spots for the Commodores in what has been a rocky season.
Vanderbilt is 348th nationally in turnovers forced (only 10.1 per game), so LSU should be able to find an offensive rhythm and at least get open looks.
However, with the Commodores’ next three SEC games all on the road against current top five league teams – at Tennessee, at Kentucky, and at Auburn – this is as must-win as it gets.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 72, LSU 70
Ole Miss (10-8, 3-3) at Arkansas (12-6, 2-4) – 3:30 PM EST, SEC Network
Neither team has won a road game yet this season, but the Rebels are the ones playing away from home here.
But Ole Miss was a missed buzzer-beater away from sending Texas A&M to 0-6 in SEC play, and that may give Andy Kennedy’s team the confidence it needs to play well in Fayetteville.
As I mentioned in the companion podcast below, I’m concerned about Arkansas’s lack of consistency beyond its big three right now. We know what Daryl Macon, Jaylen Barford, and Daniel Gafford can do, but Mike Anderson is struggling to find reliable production elsewhere.
If you want an interesting stat that may come into play depending on how the first half unfolds: Arkansas has won 31 straight games when leading at halftime.
Even if the Razorbacks don’t lead at halftime, I think they get back on track with a much-needed home win.
Prediction: Arkansas 78, Ole Miss 73
Missouri (13-5, 3-2) at Texas A&M (12-6, 1-5) – 4 PM EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)
This figures to be a grind-it-out type of game since both teams will rely on their size inside to make things difficult for the opposing offense.
Missouri is coming off the big win over Tennessee, while Texas A&M is hoping to build off the Ole Miss victory.
The Aggies still rank 10th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and they’ll need to be at their best to combat a Mizzou squad that continues to shoot the ball well from beyond the arc.
Even in the Ole Miss, it didn’t feel like Texas A&M had found its groove yet.
I think maybe we start to see that here, and I’ll take the Aggies to earn a resume-building win.
Prediction: Texas A&M 68, Missouri 64
No. 21 Tennessee (12-5, 3-3) at South Carolina (12-6, 3-3) – 6 PM EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)
Speaking of games that could be defined by defense, this has all the makings of a low-scoring contest.
Tennessee struggled to get anything going at Missouri, but the good news for the Vols is that they are still in fine shape with three of their next four games after this one all being at home.
Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have rallied to get back to .500 in conference play, and the win over Kentucky proved that this team’s defense is still strong enough to win games against quality competition.
Chris Silva (14.9 ppg, 7.9 rpg) is one of the most valuable players in the SEC right now, and it doesn’t feel like there’s anyone on Tennessee that can stop him.
I always worry about a potential letdown from a team after a huge win like South Carolina had against Kentucky, but I’m going to lean towards the Gamecocks pulling off another “upset” against a ranked team.
Prediction: South Carolina 65, Tennessee 64
Georgia (12-5, 3-3) at No. 17 Auburn (16-2, 4-1) – 6 PM EST, SEC Network
How does Auburn respond to having its 14-game winning streak snapped by its biggest rival? That’s what we’re about to find out.
The Tigers remain in fine shape with only two losses on the season, but how they bounce back from Wednesday’s loss to Alabama will tell us a lot about the Tigers going forward.
Georgia has been a difficult team to figure out to this point, as sometimes they look like an NCAA Tournament team and other times they look like a lock to be in one of the SEC Tournament play-in games.
But any team that has Yante Maten on the court will always have a chance to win, and now it’s just a matter of Mark Fox getting the most out of those around the Bulldogs’ star forward.
I have a sneaky suspicion that Auburn might get off to a slow start, but I’ll go with the Tigers to score the victory.
Prediction: Auburn 79, Georgia 76
Florida (13-5, 5-1) at No. 18 Kentucky (14-4, 4-2) – 8:15 PM EST, ESPN
Just like with Auburn, the most interesting part of this matchup is seeing how Kentucky responds to the loss at South Carolina.
It sounds like point guard Quade Green will be a game-time decision, and that’s significant for the Wildcats considering that Florida’s biggest strength is its guard play. With KeVaughn Allen breaking out of his slump with a 28-point outing against Arkansas, the Gators may be close to playing like they did earlier in the season.
How each team improves defensively moving forward will likely be the difference between being knocked out in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament and being a team that can make a potential Final Four run.
Kentucky has defended the three very well this season and ranks sixth nationally in allowing opponents to shoot only 29.0 percent from beyond the arc. That number may be concerning for a Florida team that will certainly put up a lot of outside shots in this game.
And the size and length of Kentucky will also likely present challenges, which means that Florida will have to put in a dedicated effort on the glass.
And while I typically lean towards the home team in games between these two, I’m gonna go in the opposite direction and take the Gators on the road.
Prediction: Florida 77, Kentucky 75
Mississippi State (14-4, 2-3) at Alabama (12-6, 4-2) – 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network
The Bulldogs haven’t scored over 58 points in a road game this season, which isn’t promising heading into a matchup against an Alabama team that may be starting to find its way.
The Crimson Tide pulled off the victory against Auburn even with Collin Sexton sidelined due to injury, and he’s likely to be a game-time decision for this one.
But simply playing that well without him on the floor had to be a big confidence booster, and it’ll be interesting to see if that carries over into this game if Sexton is once again out of action.
If Alabama wants to prove that its inconsistencies are a thing of the past, it needs to win this game. Mississippi State has been a completely different team away from home, and that should open up plenty of opportunities for Avery Johnson’s squad.
Until the Bulldogs can put up a solid performance on the road, it’s hard to pick them to beat a team that’s playing with a ton of momentum.
Prediction: Alabama 73, Mississippi State 65
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