Amid a disappointing season, Vanderbilt fans got a rare treat this past week when future Commodores Darius Garland and Simi Shittu both were named to the McDonald’s All-American game.
These honors help put the additions of Garland and Shittu in perspective, as Vanderbilt had never signed a McDonald’s All-American before.
The pair could become VU’s two best freshmen in program history, and both could be first-round picks in the 2019 NBA Draft.
Despite this, Garland and Shittu don’t represent known quantities at the college level. Plenty of 5-star recruits have failed to pan out as immediate college stars. Garland needs to add weight as he transitions to the physical SEC, while Shittu doesn’t have an outside shot.
Fellow 5-star Romeo Langford remains unsigned, and right now I believe Vanderbilt isn’t even a lock to make the 2019 NCAA Tournament without him.
Here’s why.
Through 20 games, 65.5 percent of Vanderbilt’s minutes have gone to the same players as last year, according to Ken Pomeroy. That ranks 52nd nationally, and yet the ‘Dores have taken a massive step back, to the point where they are probably one of the five worst Power Five teams.
Based on the minutes played so far this season, Vanderbilt will lose 42 percent of its minutes going into next year. While that number will likely decrease now that Matthew Fisher-Davis has been ruled out for the season with a shoulder injury, this is still huge. If any current Commodores decide to transfer, head coach Bryce Drew will be dealing with tons of roster turnover on a team that already isn’t very good.
Similarly, Vanderbilt will return only 44.4 percent of its per-game scoring, based on today’s stats. VU will say goodbye to 68.9 percent of its made three-pointers. It’ll bid adieu to Jeff Roberson’s and Riley LaChance’s elite 120-plus offensive ratings.
Bringing in Garland and Shittu will add a level of dynamic playmaking that Vanderbilt doesn’t have. Drew could use someone with parking-lot range who can also beat opponents off the dribble, like Garland. He’d love a playmaking power forward with the size and athleticism to defend forwards of all shape and size, like Shittu.
But it’s important to remember that these two must make up for the lost production of three seniors who have each scored over 1,000 career points.
Adding only Garland and Shittu means Vanderbilt must rely on significant internal improvement from players who haven’t improved much from last year.
Drew will need Maxwell Evans to improve as an offensive player to the point where he isn’t a liability on that end. He’ll need actual production at center. He’ll need Matt Ryan to improve a lot more during his redshirt year than Larry Austin, Jr. did. He might need immediate contributions from less-heralded freshman Aaron Nesmith.
This could all happen. Most likely, some of it will happen. Personally, I expect Joe Toye to bounce back next season, Saben Lee to shoot in the low-30s from three, Ejike Obinna to pick up on the speed of the game, and Ryan to serve as an excellent spot-up shooter. I don’t know exactly what to expect from Garland and Shittu.
Will all of this be enough to put Vanderbilt back in the tournament and near the top of the SEC? What if I’m wrong, and two or more of those predictions don’t pan out?
With Langford, Drew fills a position of need and probably ensures four good SEC players can be on the court at any one time next year. Langford’s presence allows Vanderbilt to build around the same amount of shot-making (or more) than it has with its current core of seniors. The difference, of course, is that Drew should have improved pieces around that core.
In some ways, adding Langford helps Vanderbilt diversify its freshman risk, as one would think at least two of any three 5-star recruits should produce right away.
This recruiting battle is a big deal.
Imagine what happens if Vanderbilt narrowly misses out on the NCAA Tournament as Garland and Shittu have good-but-not-great seasons and the Commodores’ supporting cast doesn’t do enough.
If the two jump to the NBA, Vanderbilt won’t have much left.
A good season could ignite genuine, nationwide enthusiasm for the program among recruits, thereby setting Drew up for years of success. Romeo Langford isn’t a luxury, or the cherry on top of the mouth-watering sundae that is Vanderbilt’s 2018 recruiting class.
Instead, he’s the guy who can take Vanderbilt’s program to an entirely new level.