The 2018 Big 12/SEC Challenge is here, and it figures to be the most entertaining edition of the challenge that we’ve seen thus far.
And while everyone makes a big deal about which conference wins more games, it’s typically all about matchups and the teams that are involved.
For example, the SEC’s best team and three of the conference’s top 10 teams overall aren’t in the challenge, so there’s only so much you can take away from the overall scoreboard.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 175-47
No. 14 Texas Tech at South Carolina – Noon EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)
The Red Raiders are 16th nationally in field-goal percentage defense in holding opponents to just 39.3 percent shooting, which may not bode well for a South Carolina squad that is 328th in the nation in shooting only 40.8 percent.
However, the Gamecocks have hit double-digit 3-pointers in back-to-back games, so they’re trending in the right direction. I think we might see a bit of a letdown from South Carolina after the huge win at Florida earlier in the week, but my gut tells me that the Gamecocks find a way to pull off another upset win.
Prediction: South Carolina 65, Texas Tech 63
Baylor at No. 20 Florida – Noon EST, ESPN (Game Preview)
Florida’s ability to take care of the ball should be an asset here (fifth in the nation in total turnovers), as Baylor doesn’t do much to turn teams over. But just like earlier in the week, the outcome of this game will depend on how the Gators respond to a physical style of play, which has been a staple of Scott Drew’s teams.
Of course, Florida is going to have to embrace that physicality in the paint to keep Baylor big man Jo Lual-Acuil (15.3 ppg, 9.4 rpg) from having a big game. I think the Gators get enough production from their guards to get back on track with a win.
Prediction: Florida 71, Baylor 65
Ole Miss at Texas – 2 PM EST, ESPN2 (Game Preview)
Despite losing three of its last five, Ole Miss has played better basketball. The problem is that the Rebels haven’t been able to turn the corner yet on the road, with Andy Kennedy’s squad losing all five true road games this season.
The good news for Ole Miss is that its guards are good enough to handle the pressure defense of Texas. The bad news is that Mo Bamba (12.4 ppg, 10.7 rpg) and Dylan Osetkowski (14.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg) may be the difference due to the Rebels’ lack of size. Given Ole Miss’ road woes, it’s hard to pick against a Texas team that has been very good in Austin.
Prediction: Texas 73, Ole Miss 70
Georgia at Kansas State – 2 PM EST, ESPNU
The Bulldogs have been a hard team to figure out, and their last two games prove that. They were up big at halftime against Auburn before getting outscored by 28 in the second half, and then allowed Arkansas to come back and score a double overtime win in Athens earlier in the week.
The problem with those struggles is that Georgia is facing a Kansas State team that is red hot. The Wildcats have won three straight, which included a blowout home win over Oklahoma. For Yante Maten and company to win this game, they’ll have to use their size and physicality to make things difficult Kansas State on the offensive end. The Wildcats are 22nd nationally in shooting 49.2 percent from the floor, while Georgia still sits in the top 10 in holding opponents to just 38.8 percent.
I don’t trust the Bulldogs enough right now to pick them in this spot.
Prediction: Kansas State 68, Georgia 64
No. 12 Oklahoma at Alabama – 2:15 PM EST, ESPN (Game Preview)
All the attention will be on Collin Sexton and Trae Young, but will this game will likely come down to is what happens around those two players. Alabama needs a big game from players like John Petty and Braxton Key, while Oklahoma will need Brady Manek and Khadeem Lattin to play well.
If Alabama decides to run up and down the floor with Oklahoma, this thing may not be close. I think the Tide have to put in a dedicated effort on the defensive side of the court to try and slow down Young and company, because getting caught in a track meet likely won’t work out well for the home team.
There’s going to be an upset somewhere in this challenge, and with all eyes on Tuscaloosa, I’ll take Alabama to rise to the occasion.
Prediction: Alabama 77, Oklahoma 75
No. 22 Tennessee at Iowa State – 4 PM EST, ESPNU
This is not last year’s Iowa State team, but it’s still one that plays at Hilton Coliseum, which is not an easy place to win. The Cyclones have won their past two home games against Baylor and Texas Tech, and Steve Prohm should have his team ready for the challenge of trying to stop the positionless Vols.
Tennessee has already captured six wins away from home this season, including four true road victories. That makes me feel better about the Vols’ chances in this game. Both teams do a good job of not turning the ball over, but I think Tennessee’s outside shooting will be the difference.
Prediction: Tennessee 72, Iowa State 68
TCU at Vanderbilt – 4 PM EST, ESPN2
While everyone thought that TCU would suddenly fall off after Jaylen Fisher’s injury, that hasn’t happened. The Horned Frogs beat West Virginia earlier in the week and have enough balance to remain a dangerous team in Big 12 play. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt’s struggles continue, and they may not get better with senior guard Matthew Fisher-Davis sidelined for the rest of the season due to injury.
The Commodores are obviously a more dangerous team at home, and the Horned Frogs haven’t exactly been great at defending the 3-pointer (271st nationally). But with Bryce Drew not getting a ton of consistency beyond Jeff Roberson, Riley LaChance, and Saben Lee right now, it’s hard to know what to expect from this Vandy squad.
This will be closer than people think, but TCU should pick up its second road win of the season.
Prediction: TCU 76, Vanderbilt 73
Texas A&M at No. 5 Kansas – 4:30 PM EST, ESPN (Game Preview)
If Texas A&M is going to make its move, now is the time to do it. The Aggies have now lost six of their last eight games, and after appearing to get back on track with two straight home wins over Ole Miss and Missouri, they took another step back in a 12-point road loss at LSU. This team has to find a sense of urgency, or else its NCAA Tournament profile could start to look a little shaky.
Of course, the problem with desperately needing a win is that Allen Fieldhouse is rarely the place to get it. Although the Jayhawks have lost two home games this season, they’ve found their way as of late and sit atop the Big 12 standings.
If Texas A&M comes out shooting threes all night, Kansas will be in fine shape. If Texas A&M decides to run everything through Robert Williams and Tyler Davis, the Aggies will have a shot. And while this will be a good game, picking against Bill Self’s team in this spot doesn’t seem smart.
Prediction: Kansas 80, Texas A&M 75
Oklahoma State at Arkansas – 6 PM EST, ESPN2
The Hogs will be looking for revenge here after getting blown out last year in this game. But these two teams have somewhat mirrored each other this season in that both have been shaky on the road. However, Arkansas gets to play in the friendly confines of Bud Walton Arena while Oklahoma State is still looking for its first road win of the year.
The double overtime win earlier in the week was big for the Hogs’ psyche, and I think that will carry over into this game. With players starting to step up around Daryl Macon, Jaylen Barford, and Daniel Gafford, it’s giving Mike Anderson more weapons on the offensive side of the floor.
Arkansas gets a few easy baskets off of turnovers to pick up the win.
Prediction: Arkansas 83, Oklahoma State 77
LSU at No. 19 Auburn – 6 PM EST, SEC Network
It would be nice to see these two teams playing in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, but it wasn’t meant to be this season. However, both teams have exceeded expectations to this point, and this should be a highly entertaining game due to style of play.
But for as well as Tremont Waters and Duop Reath are playing now, Auburn has seemingly turned things up to another level. The Tigers scored one of their most impressive wins of the season on Wednesday by blowing out Missouri in Columbia, and the balance on this team is downright scary at times.
Waters and Reath will present some challenges defensively, but I’ll go with Auburn to keep its hot streak going at home.
Prediction: Auburn 85, LSU 76
Kentucky at No. 7 West Virginia – 7 PM EST, ESPN
There’s a part of me that feels like Kentucky is going to step up and have one of its better games of the season. There’s another part of me that thinks that Kentucky could get beat by 15+ points.
So, that’s an interesting setup heading into one, as the Mountaineers have certainly been the more consistent team all season long. West Virginia’s pressure defense can obviously be a game-changer, and perhaps an even bigger problem for the Wildcats is the physicality that they’ll face in all facets of the game.
John Calipari’s team will have to use its size to grab more scoring chances off the offensive glass, and as always, not turning the ball over will be priority number one. But I’m just not sure that Kentucky will be able to handle the physical nature of this game, so I’ll lean towards the Mountaineers.
Prediction: West Virginia 77, Kentucky 69
Missouri at Mississippi State – 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network
Here’s a game between two teams that could really use a win. Mississippi State has lost five of six, while Missouri has suffered defeat in three of its last four. The Tigers are in better shape right now in terms of staying in the NCAA Tournament picture, but a loss here could start to make things very dicey.
These two have been completely opposite when it comes to 3-point shooting, as Missouri has been a top 50 team in that category for most of the season while Mississippi State is one of the worst outside shooting teams in the nation. So, if both teams decide to rely on perimeter shooting in this one, that difference is worth noting.
I can’t say that I’m confident in knowing what we’re gonna get from either side in this game. The Bulldogs have played considerably better at home, so I’ll take them to earn the victory.
Prediction: Mississippi State 71, Missouri 70
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