Flying under the radar during a season full of losses, Vanderbilt quietly pieced together its best week of the season.
The Commodores’ close home win over TCU and loss at Kentucky combined to boost their KenPom ranking from No. 103 to No. 87.
Vanderbilt still isn’t playing the cleanest basketball (see TCU’s 50 percent offensive rebounding rate at Memorial Gym and the late-game bungling at Rupp Arena), but it’s playing on a significantly higher plane than in early January.
Vanderbilt probably can’t count on shooting 40 percent from three—as it did this week—for the rest of the year.
But two trends caught my eye that could be sustainable and bode well for the program going forward.
Two-point shooting
Over the last season-and-a-half, Vanderbilt hasn’t had the personnel you’d expect to dominate inside offensively. Luke Kornet was a good finisher but wasn’t much of a post player, and Vanderbilt’s current centers also lack ability in the post.
Having said that, they appear to be getting better.
Vanderbilt shot 20 for 34 from two-point range against TCU, an admittedly weak interior defensive team. The Commodores then continued their success against Kentucky, making 19 of 34 two-pointers and out-scoring the Wildcats 36-28 in the paint.
Unlike the Horned Frogs, Kentucky has a relatively strong interior defense, and Ejike Obinna shined with three-for-six two-point shooting and three free-throw attempts in only eight minutes.
While Djery Baptiste remains too slow off his feet to serve as a good finisher for now, Clevon Brown and Obinna give Vanderbilt enough of that right now.
Obinna in particular has produced in limited minutes: He’s shot 64 percent from the field and grabs 21.8 percent of available defensive rebounds, according to KenPom. He isn’t blocking shots, but he also isn’t hurting the ‘Dores with turnovers—his 18.8 percent turnover rate is excellent for a freshman at any position.
Obinna has some projectability as a shooter and post scorer, and he’ll play through contact.
Right now, I’d pick Obinna as the favorite to emerge as Vanderbilt’s starting center next year, and the position group as a whole should have an easier time defensively with the extra size Simi Shittu brings at power forward compared with Jeff Roberson.
Transition game
Last year, Vanderbilt was a mess in transition. The ‘Dores didn’t get a ton of offense on the fastbreak themselves, and Synergy Sports Technology ranked them below the 10th percentile nationally for much of the season in transition defense.
Adding dynamic players like Darius Garland and Shittu should help next year, but Vanderbilt is already looking better in transition.
Against TCU, Vanderbilt notched 12 fastbreak points and outscored the visitors by three on the break. Like many Big 12 teams, TCU plays relatively fast—109th nationally, according to KenPom. Vanderbilt slowed the game to a crawl and yet was opportunistic in transition.
The Commodores have more athletes than a year ago, but I still wouldn’t have expected them to outscore TCU in fastbreak points. Doing so represented a small step forward.
Vanderbilt’s performance in this category at Kentucky was nothing short of elite.
Bryce Drew’s team outscored the Wildcats 8-0 in transition, including Joe Toye’s key layup in the last minute of regulation. Kentucky obviously has athletes all over the floor, and it plays at the 128th-fastest adjusted pace in the country, according to KenPom.
A major key to beating Kentucky is keeping John Calipari’s mega-athletes out of transition and forcing them to beat you with skill in the halfcourt. The Commodores did a tremendous job of executing this strategy, and that’s why they were in position to win.
For as good as he was, Kornet’s lack of footspeed hampered Vanderbilt’s transition defense last year. With faster, more athletic big men on the roster now and for the long term, the Commodores should be able to shut down most transition attacks. Athletic guards and wings like Saben Lee, Maxwell Evans and Toye (plus Shittu at the 4) will only help the cause.
Drew showed last year he can cook up a strong halfcourt defense even without optimal personnel, so it’s safe to say Vanderbilt’s 173rd-ranked defense by KenPom’s metrics will make a big jump next year.