Fans are in Lexington are in a panic as John Calipari’s Kentucky team has lost four straight games, with a red-hot Alabama squad coming to town on Saturday afternoon.
To be fair, the Wildcats have played four of the top teams in the league in their last four outings, with three of those coming on the road.
However, even before that tough stretch of games, Kentucky needed an epic collapse from Vanderbilt to steal a win at home.
Meanwhile, Alabama has been on a roll lately. The Tide have been impressive on both ends, blitzing both Tennessee and LSU at home in their last two games by 15 or more points.
Winning at Rupp Arena is another story, though. Even this season, when Kentucky is clearly less talented than in past seasons, the Wildcats are 4-2 at home in the league. Even their two losses were by only two points apiece.
Let’s take a look at what Alabama needs to do secure a road win at Kentucky.
Keep Kentucky off the offensive glass
Kentucky may not have a no-brainer future NBA all-star on the roster, but this team is still long at every position.
Five Kentucky regular contributors are 6’9 or better and no player except for backup point guard Quade Green is listed under 6’5. That length has contributed to Kentucky being one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country (22nd nationally).
It also doesn’t hurt that Kentucky is missing a lot of shots. The Wildcats are last in the league in 3-point percentage and are in the bottom half in 2-point percentage, which leaves more rebounding opportunities than usual.
Unfortunately, one of Alabama’s biggest problems this year has been giving up offensive rebounds, despite the fact that their lineup has impressive length like Kentucky. While the Crimson Tide have been better in SEC play, they still rank in the bottom half nationally in defensive rebound percentage.
Alabama’s defense has been stingy lately, and they’ll need to continue that against Kentucky.
It’s crucial that the Tide focus on finishing defensive possessions by securing rebounds that will limit the Wildcats extra opportunities.
Turn Kentucky over
The likely primary reason that the Tide give up offensive rebound at a high rate: Alabama likes to start the fast break as quickly as possible.
Avery Johnson’s squad has been electric when running the floor. Collin Sexton’s speed, the transition vision of Alabama’s point-forwards Herbert Jones and Braxton Key, and the rim-running ability of Donta Hall have combined to make the Crimson Tide’s fast-break offense something to see.
For the Tide to get out and run though, they have to create opportunities.
Fortunately, this particular opponent is prone to turnovers. Without the benefit of an elite point guard like Tyler Ulis or John Wall, Kentucky has been susceptible to the steal.
Having the ball stolen from your team is the worst kind of turnover, because it almost always leads to transition offense for the other team. In 2018, the Wildcats give up a steal on almost 10 percent of their possessions, the worst mark in the SEC.
If Alabama can turn the Kentucky over at a similar rate, the Tide’s superior transition offense will likely offer a huge advantage.
Don’t Settle for 3’s
The Wildcats aren’t going to settle for 3-pointers on their end. They are the worst 3-point shooting team in the league, and they know it.
All season long, Calipari has been after his guards to drive the ball. Accordingly, almost 60 percent of Kentucky’s baskets come in 2-point range, the fourth-most in the nation.
While Kentucky doesn’t make a lot of shots from outside, it also don’t allow other teams to make a lot of them. The Wildcats are the league’s best at defending shots from deep, allowing opposing teams only make 26.4 percent of their attempts.
Alabama can’t be forced into jacking up shot after shot from the perimeter. Petty can get hot, but the Crimson Tide are not a great 3-point shooting team. Their bread and butter is attacking the rim, and they have the length to match Kentucky at the bucket.
I don’t expect Sexton to get star-favored calls in Lexington, but that shouldn’t stop him from attacking Kentucky’s bigs.
If Alabama will penetrate on offense, it should open Hall up for another big game, and it should give this team a great chance at winning.