We’re only a few weeks away from the start of the SEC Tournament in St. Louis, which means that teams are still jockeying for position in trying to secure favorable seeding.
But as expected, there are still plenty of unknowns as to where teams could finish in the standings and how many could be dancing come March.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 216-60
Mississippi State at No. 21 Texas A&M – 7 PM EST, SEC Network
The Aggies have lost two straight and sit two games under .500 in SEC play, but in most bracketology updates, are still anywhere from a 5-7 seed.
So, Texas A&M is still in decent shape even with 10 losses on the year, and the reason for that is seven Quadrant 1 wins and a No. 8 strength of schedule.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State is fighting to stay in the NCAA Tournament discussion, but will need several more quality wins. The Bulldogs will have opportunities, as they still have this game and another upper-tier win chance at Tennessee.
Both teams have defended well this season, and it feels like we could see a lower-scoring type of game.
And while Mississippi State has some size, I feel like the Aggies’ 6-10 trio will cause enough disruption to make things difficult on Ben Howland’s squad when it comes to trying to find consistent scoring.
Prediction: Texas A&M 69, Mississippi State 64
Ole Miss at Missouri – 9 PM EST, ESPN2
Missouri should come out angry here after falling just short at LSU, and that’s not good news for the Rebels.
Ole Miss is still dealing with the after effects of Andy Kennedy stepping down as the team’s head coach, and now Tony Madlock will try and steer things in the right direction in the final few weeks of the season.
There’s just too much going on right now with the Rebels to feel confident about their chances to beat what has been one of the hottest teams in the league as of late.
Mizzou should be able to control this game with its size and get back on track with a solid win.
Prediction: Missouri 75, Ole Miss 65
Kentucky at Arkansas – 9 PM EST, ESPN
It seemed impossible that Kentucky would somehow lose a fifth-straight game, and sure enough, the Wildcats ended their slump with a win over Alabama.
The question is, can Kevin Knox and company build off of that win and start a much better streak with a victory at Bud Walton Arena?
After suffering through a rough stretch to start SEC play, the Razorbacks have turned things around and are winners of four straight. Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon have obviously been the catalysts for Arkansas’s change of fortunes, but Daniel Gafford has been just as important.
And once again, Gafford’s play could decide the outcome in this one. His length and athleticism should help against Kentucky’s bigger frontcourt, so the freshman big man has to stay out foul trouble to give the Hogs a shot at victory.
This is a toss-up, but I think Arkansas finds a way to speed the game up enough to force Kentucky into committing some costly turnovers down the stretch.
Prediction: Arkansas 80, Kentucky 78
Vanderbilt at LSU – 9 PM EST, SEC Network
I’ve said it several times over the past few weeks, but I’m not sure anyone wants to play Vanderbilt right now.
Yes, most of the Commodores’ success has come at home, but they are shooting it well enough now to be able to contend with anyone in the conference. And with Bryce Drew’s squad already scoring a win over LSU a month ago, they should be confident heading into this one.
However, the Tigers are also playing with plenty of confidence after snapping Mizzou’s winning streak. And believe it or not, LSU is still in the NCAA Tournament picture thanks to seven Quadrant 1 wins.
A positive for Vanderbilt here is that LSU has given up at least 10 3-pointers in back-to-back games, so Riley LaChance and Jeff Roberson may be able to find even more open looks in this game. Roberson, the reigning SEC Player of the Week, has been on an absolute tear and will be crucial to the Commodores’ success on both ends of the floor.
But even with Vanderbilt’s ability to shoot it well from outside, we’ve seen how difficult it has been for the Commodores to win on the road this season.
I’ll take LSU to score the victory in what should be a high-scoring game.
Prediction: LSU 80, Vanderbilt 77
[smbtoolbar]