Two weeks ago, there were five games remaining in the regular season.
Alabama was coming off back-to-back wins against Tennessee and LSU, and most pundits believed that just one more win would be enough to secure an NCAA Tournament bid.
Fast forward to now, and the Crimson Tide are still searching for that win.
Alabama has managed to lose four games in a row, and the most recent defeat was an abysmal outing against Florida in Tuscaloosa.
With just one game to go, there isn’t much optimism in Tuscaloosa, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a single fan that expects Alabama to win at Texas A&M on Saturday.
How did the Tide get here?
It’s not all effort
It’s easy to assume that because Alabama was soundly whipped on the scoreboard, that the team was somehow lazy or “didn’t want it enough”.
I was at the game and that simply wasn’t the case.
For the first time in a long time, Alabama came into the game and was more physical than the opponent. Consider this: the Crimson Tide got 17 offensive rebounds in the first half alone! You simply can’t do that if your effort isn’t high.
Herbert Jones was an animal in the first half. He was flying through bodies for rebounds, and the lanky freshman managed to secure five of them in just eight minutes before he suffered a head injury while attacking a rebound.
The Tide outrebounded Florida by 15 for the game, but unfortunately, they were only able to secure that many rebounds because there were so many shots missed.
And as Cecil Hurt of The Tuscaloosa News noted, Braxton Key had back-to-back baskets in the first half, but they were 14 minutes and 30 seconds apart. That embarrassing stat had little to do with desire.
Collin Sexton didn’t miss layup after layup because he wasn’t trying.
So what is up with the offense?
For starters, Alabama isn’t getting calls around the rim.
Sexton’s forte is drawing fouls. His burst and craftiness have allowed him to make a living at the line in his career, but lately, he’s struggled to get those calls.
That’s not to say that the officiating has been bad. It’s very typical for there to be a decline in fouls called as the season progresses since no one wants to see a 60 free-throw game when it comes tournament time.
Defenses have adjusted too. Alabama has become easy to guard because defenses know what to expect from the Tide’s offensive attack.
Alabama’s lineup is filled with guys who are drive-first players. Sexton, Jones, Dazon Ingram, and Braxton Key are all players whose first instinct is to attack the rim. The only Alabama guard who is a shoot-first player is John Petty, but 23 of his last 24 shot attempts have been 3-pointers and opposing teams are running him off the 3-point line now.
You can only be a good slasher if you also draw fouls. Alabama shot 22 free throws against Florida, but half of those were shots by their centers.
For Alabama to be at its best, it’s essential to find a way to earn some foul calls.
Confidence is shaken
When the lid didn’t come off the basket for the whole first half against the Gators, it clearly shook the confidence of the Tide.
It’s a strange circumstance, but sometimes when you watch a player shoot, you can tell that they are praying that the ball goes in as they are releasing it. I saw that a lot in the Florida loss.
At no point after the first minute last night – Sexton’s self-talking antics excluded – could you see any swagger from the Tide. The confidence that was clearly evident in offensive explosions against Tennessee and LSU has been lost.
Avery Johnson needs to find a way to convince his best scorers—Sexton, Key and Hall—to let the ball fly. They need to be ready to shoot when they are open, always looking to score first instead of pass first.
What’s next?
I saw a stat on Tuesday night that should be disturbing to Alabama fans.
In Avery Johnson’s first three seasons at Alabama, he is 3-11 in the last five games of the regular season.
The Crimson Tide has been on the bubble in each of those three seasons.
That doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. Coaches are judged by what they do at the end of seasons. If that’s the standard, then you wouldn’t be very impressed with what Johnson has accomplished.
Somehow flipping the script and winning at Texas A&M on Saturday would go a long way toward changing that perception.
And of course, it would go a long towards securing that elusive one win that could be the different in the NCAA Tournament or the NIT.