It’s been a thrilling year in SEC basketball, and there is still plenty of things to be decided on the final day of the regular season.
Auburn and Tennessee will both play crucial games that will decide who will claim the SEC title, while Alabama will try to stay in the NCAA Tournament discussion with a win at Texas A&M.
As always, my predictions are based on team analysis and who I think will win. Score projections are for my own amusement.
Let’s get to the picks.
Season Predictions Record (straight up): 229-68
No. 23 Kentucky at Florida – Noon EST, CBS
I’ve been asked numerous times this season about the SEC team that could make the most noise in March.
And for some reason, even when including SEC leaders Auburn and Tennessee in the discussion, I’ve always found a way to sneak Florida into the discussion.
When the Gators are at their best on defense, they’re tough to beat. Unfortunately, the consistency hasn’t been there on that side of the court, and that’s led to a lot of head-scratching losses for Mike White’s team this season.
Of course, another team that’s been easy to doubt at times has been Kentucky. We knew this was John Calipari’s youngest team, and we knew that it would take a while before things clicked.
Guess what? Things have finally clicked. The Wildcats have won four in a row, with three of those wins coming against likely NCAA Tournament teams in Alabama, Arkansas, and Missouri. So, maybe we shouldn’t be all that surprised that Kentucky is hitting its stride right before tournament time.
As for this game, it’s going to be close, and it’s going to have that usual Florida/Kentucky feel to it.
This is pretty much a toss-up, but the two impressive wins over Auburn and Alabama make me feel like the Gators have found their way again.
Prediction: Florida 73, Kentucky 71
Mississippi State at LSU – 1 PM EST, SEC Network
Mississippi State’s home loss to Tennessee earlier in the week was very deflating, as the Bulldogs suffered a surprising 22-point defeat.
LSU had its own difficult loss at South Carolina, and Will Wade’s team will be looking to avoid a spot in the Wednesday night games at next week’s SEC tournament.
Despite struggling on the road, the Tigers have won five straight at home and are taking on a Mississippi State squad that may still be reeling from the underwhelming performance on Tuesday.
I’ll go with LSU to get the narrow win.
Prediction: LSU 73, Mississippi State 72
Alabama at Texas A&M – 2 PM EST, ESPN2
We’re back to not knowing what to expect from the Crimson Tide, and that’s not good for Avery Johnson’s squad since they are now squarely on the tournament bubble.
Alabama has lost four straight and desperately needs to win this game. Otherwise, the Tide will go into the SEC tournament potentially needing multiple wins to go dancing.
Texas A&M hasn’t played great in recent weeks, but Tyler Davis and company have found ways to grind out back-to-back road wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia.
After the performance we saw earlier in the week, I fully expect Alabama to play much better. However, the Aggies are much more trustworthy at this point.
Prediction: Texas A&M 70, Alabama 65
South Carolina at No. 14 Auburn – 3:30 PM EST, SEC Network
We’ve seen the Tigers struggle more than usual recently, but losses at Florida and Arkansas aren’t anything to be all that upset about since both are tournament teams.
But the one loss Auburn would love to have back is the one it suffered at South Carolina a few weeks ago, so revenge will be on the mind of the Tigers in this one.
The Gamecocks have won three of four after losing six straight, and Frank Booker and Wesley Myers have certainly played very well during this stretch of games.
Auburn is a bit more vulnerable defensively with Anfernee McLemore out of the lineup, but that shouldn’t be a concern here.
I think Auburn regains that chip on it shoulder and cruises to victory.
Prediction: Auburn 81, South Carolina 70
Georgia at No. 16 Tennessee – 6 PM EST, SEC Network
So, if Auburn gets the win, we all know what Tennessee needs to do stay in the regular season title hunt.
The Vols also have revenge on their minds after the double-digit loss in Athens on February 17, and we should see Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield at their best in a game of this magnitude.
But which Georgia team will we see? We’ve seen the one that can beat teams like Tennessee and Florida, but we’ve also seen the one that can find ways to give games away down the stretch.
Basketball is a game of matchups, and I feel like Georgia is one of those teams that matches up well with Tennessee.
Even with that said, I find it extremely difficult to pick against the Vols in this spot given what’s at stake.
Prediction: Tennessee 69, Georgia 68
Arkansas at Missouri – 6 PM EST, ESPN2
Update: Michael Porter Jr. will not play for Missouri.
This should be one of the most entertaining games of the day, even if Michael Porter Jr. doesn’t suit up for Missouri.
The Razorbacks have found their groove in winning six of their last seven, and the Tigers managed to get back on track with a much-needed road victory against Vanderbilt.
This was a tight game the first time around, with Arkansas pulled out a two-point victory in Fayetteville behind a balanced scoring effort. The Hogs will need that same type of balance in this game, and obviously, they need Daniel Gafford to not get in foul trouble against Missouri’s bigs.
I’ll lean towards Mizzou here simply because of the possibility that Porter could play. Even if he doesn’t, I still think Kassius Robertson has a big game and leads the Tigers to victory.
Prediction: Missouri 74, Arkansas 71
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss – 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network
It’s been a difficult season for both of these teams, but at least someone will get to finish on a positive note.
Considering that these two teams have struggled to find any consistency on the defensive side of the court, this could wind up being a high-scoring game with lots of 3-point attempts.
I have no idea what we’ll see from either team since there really isn’t anything on the line, but this Vanderbilt team can be dangerous when it shoots well from beyond the arc.
The Rebels haven’t been great at defending the perimeter, so I’ll take the Commodores to score the win.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 77, Ole Miss 75
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