The 2018 NCAA Tournament tips off on Tuesday with First Four games in Dayton, and here at Southeast Hoops, we’re breaking down the path for every SEC team in the field.
First up is the Midwest Region, which features only one team from the conference in co-regular season champion Auburn.
Let’s take a look at where the Tigers stand and how things could shake out in this region.
Where Auburn stands
After beating Kentucky to move to 23-3 on the season, things have turned in a bit of a different direction for Bruce Pearl’s squad.
The Tigers have lost four of their last six games, and the loss of productive big man Anfernee McLemore has certainly played a big role in Auburn’s struggles.
However, this is still a dangerous team due to its ability to shoot the ball from the perimeter and knock down free throws at a consistent rate. Auburn enters the tournament ranked eighth nationally in free-throw percentage (78.6 percent) and 27th nationally in 3-point field goals per game (9.8).
If the Tigers can regain their rhythm, they’re good enough to make a deep run.
Meet the opponent
Charleston is led by one of the top rising coaches in the country in 41-year-old Earl Grant. The former Clemson and Wichita State assistant has led the Cougars to 25 or more wins in back-to-back seasons and should be linked with power conference job openings this offseason.
The biggest challenge for Auburn will be turning this team over. Charleston is fourth in the nation in turnovers per game, with the Cougars only giving it up 9.6 times per contest. The Tigers have excelled in making opponents commit mistakes (30th nationally in turnovers forced), so they’ll need that trend to continue.
In terms of depth, Charleston plays only six players more than 15 minutes per game. Grant Riller (18.7 ppg), Joe Chealey (18.5 ppg), and Jarrell Brantley (17.0 ppg) all average in double figures, and keeping those guys out of foul trouble will be key against an Auburn squad that’s still deep even without McLemore.
Both teams want to spread the floor and find open shooters, but Charleston does it at a much slower pace. Grant’s team is 324th in tempo, so slowing the game down will be important to success the fast-paced Tigers.
The Cougars’ non-conference schedule was not great, and this will easily be the toughest opponent they’ve faced this season.
Potential next round matchup
Clemson and New Mexico State will square off in the always interesting 5/12 matchup.
Brad Brownell’s team has lost five of eight, but this continues to be one of the toughest defensive teams in the country. The Tigers rank in top 10 in KenPom in defensive efficiency, but after losing Donte Grantham to injury in mid-January, their ceiling could be limited.
As for the Aggies, they’ve been one of the hottest teams in the country for a while now. New Mexico State has only five losses on the season and have already beaten NCAA Tournament teams in Miami and Davidson.
Chris Jans has a team that is undersized, but they make up for it with the way they defend (10th nationally in scoring defense).
Region favorites
The top three seeds in the Midwest aren’t exactly slouches.
Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State will all be picked as national title contenders, and are in the top seven in terms of betting favorites to win it all.
Obviously, should Auburn advance past the first weekend, its most likely matchup would be a Sweet 16 meeting with Kansas in Omaha.
Both teams are in the top 35 in the country in points per game, so that would be an entertaining game that would feature plenty of points on the scoreboard.
Region sleeper
Keep an eye on the winner of that first round matchup between Rhode Island and Oklahoma.
The Rams have slowed down a little since winning 16 straight games, but they have the toughness and experience to battle with Duke.
And then there’s the Sooners. While it didn’t make a lot of sense as to why Oklahoma got in, it’s still a team that features one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country in Trae Young.
Then again, the Sooners haven’t won a game away from home since late December, so they’re a hard team to trust.
How far can Auburn advance?
Even without McLemore, Auburn has enough balance and outside shooting to make a lengthy run in this region.
Although Clemson and New Mexico State defend very well, it would still feel like a solid matchup for the Tigers should they dispatch Charleston in round one.
However, what’s going to be crucial is Auburn’s perimeter defense. Since the Tigers don’t have McLemore to affect shots in such an efficient manner, it will be up to Jared Harper and company to keep opponents out of the lane and force contested jump shots outside.
It would be inaccurate to say that Auburn is the same team it was a little over a month ago, but it would be equally inaccurate to say that the Tigers don’t have enough capable players to step up and make big contributions.
Chuma Okeke and Horace Spencer will both need to play well throughout this tournament, and the good news that is both are capable of doing so.
If it can find its groove from beyond the arc right from the beginning, Auburn could wind up being disruptive in this region.
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