With the 2017-18 college basketball season complete and teams transitioning into offseason mode, one of the biggest things in every coach’s mind is determining which players from their respective programs are going pro.
Over the next few weeks, we’ll evaluate every SEC player that has a chance of going pro and evaluate them in an in-depth profile based on their strengths and weaknesses as the 2018 NBA draft approaches.
The series starts in Tuscaloosa, where Alabama is losing one of the best players to ever grace the floor of Coleman Coliseum in home whites in Collin Sexton.
The 19-year-old freshman from Mableton, GA is a rare combination of size, strength, and athleticism from the point guard position.
Let’s take a deeper dive into some film on Sexton and see what pro scouts could view as potential strengths and weaknesses.
Diagnostics
- Name: Collin Sexton
- Height: 6’3”
- Weight: 190 lbs.
- Wingspan: 6’6 1/2”
- Points Per Game: 19.2
- Assists Per Game: 3.6
- Rebounds Per Game: 3.8
- Field Goal Percentage: 44.7%
- Three-Point Percentage: 33.6%
- Free Throw Percentage: 77.8%
- Points per 100 possessions: 36.5
- Assists per 100 possessions: 6.2
- Rebounds per 100 possessions: 7.9
Strengths
- Ability to get to the rim and draw fouls
Sexton’s quick first step is very good when he’s coming off of a pick and roll, as well as off of the dribble in a straight line, often leaving defenders in the dust on the drive.
Once Sexton gets to the rim, he’s very adept at drawing contact from the trailing guard by putting the guard in ‘jail.’ For those interested, here is a great explanation of the jail concept by Coach Nick over at BBallBreakdown.
Sexton is also good at drawing contact from the big at the rim by jumping into the body and forcing a foul call. He has a variety of moves around the rim, including a nice floater that he can get over taller and more athletic bigs – the game-winner over Texas A&M big man Robert Williams comes to mind – as well as a crafty finger roll and ambidextrous layups.
- Open court transition offense
Sexton is one of the flashier players in the draft, especially in the open court when he has shooters and dunkers running the floor with him.
Most Alabama fans will remember his extraordinary wrap-around pass that he pulled off against Auburn in the SEC Tournament, but Sexton has been demonstrating that open court ability all the way back to his high school days.
In the free-flowing NBA game, Sexton’s main utility will be his ability to grab and go to create open looks for his teammates in transition (27.8 percent assist percentage), and with the lack of consistent 3-point shooting on Alabama’s roster (298th in the country), he should be able to rack up more assists by creating in fast-break situations.
- Overall competitiveness
Another thing about Sexton’s game that has been widely publicized is his competitive edge that he plays with, even back from his high school days, where he openly called Penny Hardaway’s son Jaden “trash” to his face after drawing a foul in a competitive contest between Hardaway’s Memphis East High School and Sexton’s Pebblebrook High School.
That spirit has carried over into his play at Alabama, earning him a number of technical fouls in the process, which might be a negative for NBA teams in the current environment of officiating in the league.
How Sexton’s competitiveness is actually a positive in the eyes of most scouts is that he works extremely hard, both during games where he competes on the ball on both ends of the floor, and during practice, going all out to improve his game at a rapid rate.
The fact that Sexton talks is generally a negative, but if he can avoid picking up unnecessary technical fouls in the NBA, that drive will be a positive as he plays harder than everyone else on the floor on a consistent basis.
Weaknesses
- Shot and pass selection
One of the problems with Sexton’s game that really professed itself in his one season at Alabama was his shot and pass selection, which was shown in his turnover and efficiency stats.
Sexton posted a gaudy 32.9 percent usage rate, as well as low eFG% and TS% numbers, which doesn’t bode well to his long-term potential as a point-guard in the NBA from a scoring and distributing potential.
With that high usage rate, Sexton averaged 3+ turnovers, which isn’t the absolute kiss of death independently, but definitely contributes to the problem shown at times when he’s struggled.
- Shooting projection to the NBA line
In his one season at Alabama, Sexton was a below-average shooter, shooting 33.6 percent from behind the arc, which was quite the disappointing stat from where he was in high school.
Another discouraging factor to Sexton’s shooting is his rigid shooting stroke, which doesn’t necessarily kill the potential of improving his percentage, but it certainly will make the development to the 3-point line slower as he transitions to the NBA.
There was late-season improvement in that area from Sexton, who shot 48 percent from behind the arc in the postseason (five games), but there needs to be a more consistent effort from behind the arc for him to become an average starter on an NBA team.
- Consistency
Sexton struggles at times to be consistent throughout games, which won’t cut it in the NBA as much as it did in college.
If he struggles, he really struggles and makes life difficult for himself and his teammates, but if he gets going, his teammates thrive off of the extra energy on both ends of the floor. Being able to bring it every night consistently is one of the struggles of every NBA player, and Sexton will be no different.
However, if he can put it together quickly, he can easily be in the NBA Rookie of the Year conversation in the right system.
NBA Team Fits
The most ideal fit for Sexton would either be a team that is lacking young talent at the guard position and wants a hard worker (think Dennis Smith Jr.) to give them a potential future, or a team that lacks a backup point guard that they can trust and simply wants a high-energy player to play a role off of the bench.
Here are some teams, as well as where those teams pick, that should consider Sexton in the draft.
- Orlando Magic (currently 3rd pick)
- Atlanta Hawks (4, 19)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (6)
- Charlotte Hornets (10)
- Los Angeles Clippers (12,13)
- Phoenix Suns (1, 15, 16)
- New York Knicks (9)
NBA Player Comparison
Sexton is a bigger point guard with lightning-quick speed in the open court and craftiness around the rim.
Watching him play reminds me of a raw version of Russell Westbrook, with less bounce around the rim but a similar style of play.
If Sexton can develop the rest of his game to be a 20-5-5 per game player, any team will find the value of that as his career progresses.
Draft Range
Sexton is one of the best guard prospects in this draft along with Oklahoma’s Trae Young.
Even with this draft likely being post-centric, Sexton should find his way into at least the lottery, if not the top ten picks in the draft.
And depending on the team that he lands with, he should have early success and be in consideration for an All-Rookie selection.
Prediction: Mid-to-late lottery pick