When I started Southeast Hoops several years ago, SEC basketball was on the verge of a breakthrough.
That breakthrough wasn’t clear to those on the outside, but for those that had watched the league with a close eye for many years, it was clear that times were changing.
Then came the 2017 NCAA Tournament, which saw three SEC teams make the Elite Eight.
Then came the 2018 NCAA Tournament, which saw the SEC land a record-setting eight teams in the field.
And now, the conference has a chance to take another step further. Not only will it have a great shot at matching (or exceeding) last season’s number, but it should boast at least a handful of teams that are capable of advancing to the second weekend and beyond.
That reality should make for one of the most entertaining SEC basketball seasons in recent memory.
Let’s run through some random thoughts ahead of SEC Media Day on Wednesday.
1. We are the champions
Last year’s co-regular season champions – Auburn and Tennessee – both return a huge amount of production, and it seems likely that they’ll put up more than a worthy fight in defending the crown.
Bruce Pearl has more frontcourt depth than he’s ever had at Auburn, and combining that with a group of guards that should once again thrive in transition makes the Tigers a preseason top-10 team in my eyes.
As for Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes, he returns his top six scorers and reigning SEC player of the year Grant Williams, but it’s this team’s grittiness and mental toughness that should have it competing for its first-ever Final Four.
2. Cal’s best team?
The 2012 and 2015 teams probably stack up better on paper, but there’s little doubt that this year’s edition of the Wildcats will be among John Calipari’s best in Lexington.
Adding elite freshmen always makes Kentucky a title contender, but it’s the addition of Reid Travis that raises this team’s profile even further.
The Wildcats are two-deep at pretty much every position, and while I wouldn’t expect them to run the table in a challenging SEC, they seem to be the early favorite based on pure talent and depth.
3. LSU and Mississippi State return to the national scene
The rebuilding process isn’t always easy, but this should be the year that both Will Wade and Ben Howland see their teams burst onto the national radar.
Howland’s roster is filled with tremendous size and athleticism, and with high-level scorers in the backcourt, this team should compete for top-five SEC finish after a run to the NIT final four last year.
As for Wade, he brings in the nation’s No. 4 recruiting class to go along with elite playmaker Tremont Waters and a host of returning contributors.
4. Physicality could be key to Florida’s success
Mike White has a silky smooth backcourt that’ll be able to score in bunches, but it’s the play in the paint that may decide how far the Gators can go this season.
Kevarrius Hayes and Keith Stone return to lead the frontcourt charge, and they’ll be aided by the duo of Chase Johnson and Isaiah Stokes, who both sat out with injuries last season.
The Gators shot 19.8 free throws per game last season, which was fourth-lowest in the SEC. Part of that was by design considering how the good outside shooting, but there were times where they settled for long jumpers instead of attacking the lane.
If there’s consistency in terms of physicality and aggressiveness on both sides of the court, it’ll be a fun year for Florida fans.
5. Youth movement in Fayetteville
To say that Mike Anderson has a young team would be an understatement.
Arkansas loses six of its top seven scorers from a year ago, and while Daniel Gafford is a star in the making, it’s going to take a group effort to make a fourth NCAA Tournament in five years.
And if you were wondering, there’s a good chance that the Hogs will enter as one of the least experienced teams in the country with eight freshmen (including redshirt freshman Khalil Garland) and several sophomores on the roster.
6. A&M’s system overhaul
Unlike past years, Texas A&M wants to play fast. Really fast.
That’s probably for the best after losing the dominant frontcourt of Tyler Davis and Robert Williams, as the entire offense was built to feed them the ball.
There’s always a transition period with a new system, but the Aggies have underrated guards in TJ Starks and Admon Gilder that should make the process a bit easier.
Billy Kennedy had success playing fast during his days at Murray State, and this type of tempo should fit with the makeup of his current roster.
7. No Sexton, no problem?
It’s understandable to expect a drop-off when a team loses its most dynamic playmaker, but I’m not as concerned about Alabama as some may be.
Avery Johnson gets nine of his top 11 scorers back in the fold, and the late addition of 5-star freshman Kira Lewis was a huge boost. Don’t forget: Riley Norris is also back from injury, and Texas transfer Tevin Mack was a 39.1 percent shooter from 3-point range during the 2016-17 season.
I’m not saying the offense will be as dangerous as it was with a player like Sexton on the floor, but there’s more than enough options for Johnson to work with here.
8. Brand new
Tom Crean and Kermit Davis enter the SEC in hopes of changing fortunes at their respective programs.
Crean will try to reinvigorate a team that loses its only double-digit scorer in Yante Maten while having just three NCAA Tournament bids since 2002. Meanwhile, Davis will look to build on Andy Kennedy’s efforts in Oxford, with the Rebels winning at least 20 games in nine of the past 12 seasons.
Which coach has the best chance of producing instant results? I’m glad you asked…….
9. Team(s) that could finish higher than expected is…….
In a league like this, you could make a reasonable argument for nearly every team.
But I’ll go with one of the likely projected bottom five teams and take Georgia. My love for the Bulldogs’ sophomore class is well-documented, and playing at a faster pace should better suit the talents of the majority of the roster.
I still don’t think Crean got enough credit for orchestrating the turnaround at Indiana, and he’s the type of coach that loves a challenge. This will be right in his wheelhouse, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Georgia outplay expectations this season.
Honorable mention goes to South Carolina, because we’ve learned too well that doubting Frank Martin isn’t always the best choice.
The Gamecocks have several newcomers that could make their guard play more consistent, and Chris Silva returns as an SEC player of the candidate. If shooting percentages improve and Silva continues his dominance in the paint, a return to the NCAA Tournament could certainly happen.
10. Team(s) that could finish lower than expected is………
I’m pretty set on the top nine teams in the SEC at the moment, but I still have slight concerns with both Vanderbilt and Missouri.
The Commodores have a great influx of young talent, but relying on underclassmen (no matter how good they are) in key situations can be an up and down process at times. There are also some depth questions elsewhere that need to be answered for Vanderbilt to be a top half finisher.
The good news is that Darius Garland and Simi Shittu are NBA talents, and pairing them with Saben Lee should make this team fun to watch.
Meanwhile, Cuonzo Martin has one of the nation’s most formidable frontcourts with the return of Jontay Porter and Jeremiah Tilmon, but there are a lot of unknowns in the backcourt. In a league filled with dynamic guards and up-tempo styles of play, that’s not ideal.
However, Martin and company deserve a lot of credit for making adjustments last season after the injury to Michael Porter Jr., and that’s promising entering a season like this one where development and creativity will be key.
Both are likely still NCAA Tournament teams, but they have a few more question marks than some of the teams in front of them.
11. Numbers to know, Pt. 1
307 – Alabama has finished 306th or lower nationally in free-throw percentage in each of Avery Johnson’s first three seasons. That’s been a frustrating trend for Alabama fans, but perhaps it will continue to head in the right direction.
265 – Speaking of the charity stripe, Auburn saw a 265-spot jump in the national rankings in that category, as the Tigers went from shooting 67.2 percent in ’16-17 to 77.4 percent in ’17-18.
325 – Mississippi State has ranked 325th or lower in KenPom’s experience category each of the past two seasons, and that should pay off this year thanks to the underclassmen getting a large chunk of valuable minutes.
43.5 – South Carolina shot just 43.5 percent on 2-point shots last season – a figure that ranked 344th in the country. That has to improve for the Gamecocks to be in the tournament picture.
12. The player you don’t know yet but will soon enough…….
Ole Miss freshman Blake Hinson.
On the SEC coaches teleconference this summer, Kermit Davis stated that Hinson’s maturity level “is as high as any freshman I’ve ever coached.”
That’s high praise, and Hinson’s work ethic should make him a big part of the new foundation of the Ole Miss program.
13. A newcomer that’s flying under the radar is…..
Vanderbilt guard Matt Ryan.
The Notre Dame transfer can flat out shoot it, and he’s going to get plenty of opportunities when defenders have to help on the penetration of Darius Garland and Saben Lee.
14. The most improved player(s) in the SEC will be…….
I tried to pick just one player, but that’s impossible in this league.
But since I have to draw the line somewhere, here’s a group of five:
Auburn forward Chuma Okeke, Missouri forward Jeremiah Tilmon, Vanderbilt guard Saben Lee, South Carolina forward Justin Minaya, and Texas A&M guard TJ Starks.
15. The most underrated player in the SEC is……
Auburn guard Jared Harper.
I still don’t think he gets enough credit for just how excellent he is in his point guard role for the Tigers, and it’s been awesome to watch his development over the past few years.
16. If I had to pick one SEC player to take a game-winning shot, it would be……..
LSU guard Tremont Waters.
I simply love his competitiveness and playmaking ability, and his ridiculous shot to beat Texas A&M last season didn’t exactly hurt.
.@Tremonth2o from WAY DOWNTOWN for the win!!
Recap, stats: https://t.co/a8gio26xoW#BootUp #LSU @LSUTigersVoice @JohnBrady_Coach pic.twitter.com/dAQAAQLd0R— LSU Basketball (@LSUBasketball) January 6, 2018
17. If I had to narrow my SEC Freshman of the Year candidate pool to just three, it would be……
Kentucky guard Keldon Johnson, Vanderbilt guard Darius Garland, and LSU forward Naz Reid.
18. If I had to narrow my SEC Player of the Year candidate pool to just three, it would be……..
Tennessee forward Grant Williams, Kentucky forward Reid Travis, and LSU guard Tremont Waters.
19. Which coach is most on the hot seat?
We haven’t been able to say this in a while, but the answer is no one.
No, it’s not Billy Kennedy, who has two Sweet 16 appearances in the past three seasons.
And no, it’s not Ben Howland, who just led Mississippi State to its highest win total since 2004.
20. An under-the-radar non-conference game to keep your eye on is……..
Kentucky vs. Duke. I’m kidding.
Alabama at Stephen F. Austin on Dec. 30 is extremely fascinating because it’s not every day you see an SEC team play a Southland team on the road.
Unfortunately for the Tide, this isn’t just some average mid-major team. The Lumberjacks have an excellent coach in former Texas A&M assistant Kyle Keller to go along with an experienced trio of Shannon Bogues, Kevon Harris, and TJ Holyfield, who all played a big role in leading Stephen F. Austin to 28 wins and an NCAA Tournament berth last season.
21. Numbers to know, Pt. 2
0 – Florida has not lost a single game on Thursdays in the Mike White era (nine wins). Someone alert the schedule makers.
5.3 – Kentucky was last in the SEC a season ago in making just 5.3 shots per game from beyond the arc, but the new additions should give John Calipari a more consistent 3-point attack.
14.2 – Missouri averaged 14.2 turnovers per game last season, which ranked 293rd nationally. With Kassius Robertson out of the picture, the concerns about the backcourt seem reasonable.
1 – Ole Miss has finished in the top 100 in defensive efficiency just once the past five seasons, and seeing improvement on that side of the court will undoubtedly be one of Kermit Davis’s top priorities in his first year on the job.
22. Something that stands out about the SEC schedule is……..
Florida’s brutal February schedule. Here’s what it looks like:
- Feb. 2 – vs. Kentucky
- Feb. 5 – at Auburn
- Feb. 9 – at Tennessee
- Feb. 13 – vs. Vanderbilt
- Feb. 16 – at Alabama
- Feb. 20 – at LSU
- Feb. 23 – vs. Missouri
- Feb. 27 – at Vanderbilt
Aside from the Gators, those are the eight other projected NCAA Tournament teams in my eyes. It’s safe to say that Florida will be battle-tested heading into March.
23. How many SEC teams will make the NCAA Tournament?
Nine feels like a good possibility.
No matter how many make it, the difference between this year and last year is that there should be at least a handful of teams capable of winning multiple games in March.
It is indeed a new era for SEC basketball.
Want more SEC basketball discussion? Follow me on Twitter @theblakelovell and subscribe to the Southeast Hoops podcast on iTunes for regular interviews with coaches and analysts from around the league.