As we move closer and closer to the start of the 2018-19 college basketball season, every team is starting to figure out rotations and roles for each player.
With every team, there is someone that stands out on the roster as the X-factor – a player that isn’t necessarily the most recognized player whose performance will affect the team’s overall performance the most, whether it be positively or negatively.
Let’s take a look at each SEC team’s X-factor for the ’18-19 season.
Alabama – Herbert Jones
When you talk to Alabama hoops fans around Tuscaloosa, the guy they’re most excited about seeing develop into more of a contributor, especially on the offensive end, is Herbert Jones.
The 6-7 sophomore guard/forward showed extreme versatility on the defensive end of the floor during his freshman campaign, utilizing his long wingspan to guard nearly every position on the floor.
The real development for Jones this season will come on the offensive end of the floor, where he struggled mightily in only averaging 4.2 points per game while shooting only 40.8 percent from the field and 26.9 percent from deep. Jones struggled with a wrist injury all of last season, so it will be interesting to see if he can improve those numbers with a healthy wrist.
If he can pick up the scoring production up into the 12-14 point per game range while shooting somewhere around 34 percent from deep, he’s got a good chance to earn all-SEC honors this upcoming season.
That would also help in potentially leading Alabama back to its second-straight NCAA Tournament appearance, which hasn’t happened for the Tide since the 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons.
Arkansas – Adrio Bailey
One of the biggest preseason storylines for Arkansas is the lack of experience on the roster after the graduation of Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon, as well as the exit of other key contributors.
The Razorbacks welcome eight freshmen into the fold, and with only two returning starters, it’s difficult to project who will be the guy that steps up next to stud sophomore Daniel Gafford.
However, Adrio Bailey certainly has the most upside to do just that. Bailey started 16 games for the Razorbacks last season, averaging 4.1 points and 2.5 rebounds in 14.2 minutes per game, but his impact will be felt in his experience as the oldest player on the roster.
He will need to become a leader of men very quickly for coach Mike Anderson as the latter looks for leaders that he can rely on early in the season as the freshmen engrain themselves in the program and culture that has been created over the years.
With Gafford taking the brunt of the attention, Bailey will have plenty of opportunities to fill in the gaps as the next guy in the supporting cast. While Arkansas’ success this season won’t hinge on Bailey going out and scoring a ton of points, the leadership role that Bailey should take on makes him Arkansas’ X-factor.
Auburn – Anfernee McLemore
After capturing a share of the SEC regular season title last year, Auburn figures to be one of the top teams in the SEC heading into the 2018-19 season.
However, given the recent news about Austin Wiley’s injury (which doesn’t sound too serious), the Tigers will be searching for a frontcourt player to help them improve their defense early on. Perhaps the most important player on the roster that can handle that load is Anfernee McLemore, who was the defensive anchor on the Tigers this past season.
Before his season-ending ankle injury against South Carolina near the end of conference play, McLemore averaged 2.7 blocks per game, which led the SEC in that category and landed him 13th in the country among the likes of top-six picks Mohamed Bamba and Jaren Jackson Jr.
The Tigers are certainly set up to score on offense with their high-flying guards, but for Bruce Pearl’s team to take the next step and make a deep run in the tournament, they’re going to need McLemore to anchor their defense down low.
If he can even be 70 percent of what he was last season and return without any limitations, the Tigers have a legitimate shot at a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament, which would be the program’s highest seed since entering as a No. 1 seed back in 1999.
Florida – Keith Stone
After a trip to their second consecutive NCAA Tournament and their 16th appearance in 20 seasons, the Gators have to replace a fair amount of production after losing senior guard Chris Chiozza and grad transfer guard/forward Egor Koulechov.
But the difference in Florida being NCAA tournament level and Sweet 16 level will be the play of its frontcourt, and specifically the play of Keith Stone.
The junior big man averaged 8.8 points last season along with 4.3 rebounds and a block per game in 24 minutes per game, while splitting time with Kevarrius Hayes and Gorjak Gak at the center position. However, Stone provides a different skill set than those other two centers on the Gators’ roster, given that he shot 42.4 percent from behind the arc.
As the team’s only sharpshooting frontcourt player, Stone can make a tremendous impact with his floor spacing and positional size.
And in combination with the talented guard trio of senior Jalen Hudson, senior KeVaughn Allen, and talented five-star freshman Andrew Nembhard, Stone can become the Gators’ best post option and make the offense more potent than ever.
Georgia – Nicolas Claxton
Under new head coach Tom Crean, the excitement around the Georgia men’s basketball program is palpable, and one of the players that will define Crean’s first few seasons is Nicolas Claxton.
The 6-11 sophomore only averaged 3.9 points and 3.9 rebounds per game last season but was known for his floor spacing ability (36.4 percent from behind the arc), defensive impact (1.3 blocks per game, tied for 12thin the SEC) and his ability to bring energy to the floor off the bench in relief of All-SEC performer Yante Maten.
With the departures of Maten and Papa Diatta, the Bulldogs will need Claxton, as well as senior Derek Ogbeide and senior Mike Edwards, to step up and fill the void that Maten left behind in Athens.
Claxton looks poised to take that step forward into a role of being a dominant defensive player and a serviceable offensive threat, especially from 3-point range, which is something that the Bulldogs need as they make the transition into the Crean era.
Kentucky – P.J. Washington
A lot is made of Kentucky’s freshman class year in and year out, and coach John Calipari and the Wildcats have brought in another good class this season, so picking a freshman would be too easy as the Wildcats’ X-factor.
Instead, we’re going to go with P.J. Washington, the sophomore forward who averaged 10.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game last season while starting 30 of the Wildcats’ 37 games.
His scoring ability is unique due to him being able to score from all levels of the floor at 6-8, as well as possessing a high level of positional versatility, but the most valuable resource that Washington has is his experience and leadership on the floor.
With Kentucky bringing in so much freshman talent every season, Calipari has always needed a veteran leader to keep the team together through the stresses of a full season, whether it be Wenyen Gabriel, Dominique Hawkins, or Alex Poythress.
If Washington can take on that role alongside Stanford grad transfer Reid Travis, he’ll help the Wildcats be a national title contender yet again.
LSU – Skyler Mays
In a similar vein to Kentucky, LSU is going to be heavily reliant on its freshman newcomers, such as Naz Reid, Ja’Vonte Smart, and Emmitt Williams.
So, for the Tigers to be as successful, they need the leadership of older players like Skyler Mays. The 6-4 junior guard from Baton Rouge has been a staple for the team the last few seasons, starting 55 of 64 games during his career while averaging 9.8 points, 3.3 assists, and 1.4 steals.
He will provide a shooting threat around sophomore point guard Tremont Waters while adding a competitive fire and a leadership aspect that the youthful Tigers will need.
Will Wade’s squad is loaded down with elite young talent, but the veteran presence of Mays will be a big factor in LSU’s chances of returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014-15.
Mississippi State – Aric Holman
Mississippi State is another team that has a lot of young talent coming into the fold, which will put the burden on its veterans to make this team come together to live up to its full potential.
One of those veterans that made waves last season as one of the most improved players in the SEC is Aric Holman, who proved to be a reliable pick and pop big man, shooting 44.0 percent from behind the arc last season in averaging 10.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks.
With 5-star Reggie Perry entering the program as a freshman, as well as other players like EJ Datcher, Abdul Ado, KeyShawn Feazell, and transfer Jethro Tshisumpa, the Bulldogs will have one of the deepest frontcourts in the league and possibly the entire country.
Pairing that with a loaded group of guards should make the Bulldogs one of the better teams in the deepest league in the country this upcoming season, as well as a contender for a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Missouri – Jeremiah Tilmon
With the recent announcement that Jontay Porter will miss the entire 2018-19 season with a torn ACL and MCL, Missouri has been given a major challenge: find a way to replace what Porter would have provided this season.
To answer that question mark, the Tigers must return to their other frontcourt starter in Jeremiah Tilmon to carry part of the load that Porter is leaving behind. The sophomore center averaged 8.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, and a block per game in only 19.4 minutes per game last season, starting all 33 games for the Tigers as a freshman.
While Tilmon is a much different player than Porter from a skillset perspective, he still can provide a ton of value down low as one of two returning starters from last season.
The Tigers need to find players to replace the production of graduates Kassius Robertson and Jordan Barnett, but the stability of Tilmon will help the team compete in games early in the season as they attempt to find their new identity as the year progresses.
Ole Miss – Bruce Stevens
Ole Miss is coming off of a season where it finished at the bottom of the league in the SEC, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a ton of optimism in Oxford with new head coach Kermit Davis coming in and bringing a lot of excitement to a program that hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament since 2015.
As the program makes a transition, the seniors will be very important to that process. And with Terence Davis being the star of this team, the “X-factor” award of this group goes to Bruce Stevens.
The JUCO transfer senior was Ole Miss’ most impactful frontcourt players last season in averaging 10.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. He is a bit undersized for the center position, but with how Ole Miss has historically played, he fits in with the 4-guard system of small ball by being a pick and roll big man that can stretch the floor.
As the Rebels look to speed up the coaching transition, Stevens will be very important to the continuity of the team and the building process on a day-to-day basis.
South Carolina – Justin Minaya
After the graduation of Sindarius Thornwell a few seasons ago, the Gamecocks were left with a lot of questions as to who would fill his backcourt scoring role. That question was answered partially by graduate transfer Frank Booker, but now that Booker has moved on, the Gamecocks will have to address the question yet again.
The most likely candidate to take a major step forward into that vacant role is Justin Minaya. The sophomore guard averaged 7.9 points and 4.2 rebounds per game as a freshman while starting 30 games, as well as posting a solid 36.4 percent mark from behind the arc.
Minaya and redshirt senior guard Hassani Gravett will be relied upon to make a significant offensive improvement in order to improve South Carolina’s overall offense, which was ranked 13th in the conference last season.
Along with senior All-SEC forward Chris Silva and junior forward Maik Kotsar, as well as the group of newcomers in Columbia, the Gamecocks could be one of the surprise teams in the SEC.
If the Gamecocks are to reach their full potential, Minaya and Gravett need to step their play up.
Tennessee – Kyle Alexander
When looking at Tennessee’s roster, one thing that stands out is a general lack of height, with four out of the five most common starters last season standing 6-5 or shorter.
Given this lack of height, it will be very important for Kyle Alexander to step up and provide that interior size that could give the Vols some problems as they get deeper into the season.
The 6’9” senior forward had an up-and-down year as a junior, averaging 5.6 points and 5.6 rebounds last season. We all know about the talents of SEC Player of the Year favorite Grant Williams and his counterpart Admiral Schofield, but defensively, Alexander will need to make more of an impact in the middle due to the SEC’s treasure trove of big men.
The Vols have one of the most talented teams in the SEC, but the play of Alexander will determine what kind of damage they can do on the national landscape.
Texas A&M – Josh Nebo
Following the departure of Tyler Davis and Robert Williams, head coach Billy Kennedy will look to find a post option to fill the void.
A good candidate to take on some of the load is Josh Nebo, who had to sit out last season due to NCAA transfer rules after transferring from St. Francis (PA) following his sophomore season. The 6-9 redshirt junior from Houston averaged 12.0 points per game and 8.2 rebounds in 2016-17, while starting 32 games for the third-best team in the Northeast Conference.
Nebo has had a year to develop against two of the best centers that the SEC has seen in a long time in Davis and Williams, but the step up from the NEC to the SEC could be a culture shock.
If the Aggies want to be competitive in the SEC, they’re going to need a high level of production from Nebo, as well as returnee Isiah Jasey and Tennessee State grad transfer Christian Mekowulu.
If those players cannot step up and match the level of production that Davis and Williams were able to achieve, which is an admittedly high bar, the Aggies could see a lot of struggles this upcoming season.
Vanderbilt – Joe Toye
The Commodores have brought in one of their best recruiting classes ever, including five-stars Simisola Shittu and Darius Garland, so finding a returnee to lead those young players through the tough SEC slate is a major key for Vanderbilt head coach Bryce Drew.
One of the leaders of this team moving forward should be senior forward Joe Toye. The 6-7 forward from Chicago averaged 5.7 points and 2.0 rebounds last season, but his real intrinsic value will be the leadership he provides on a roster full of sophomores and freshman.
Vanderbilt has as much talent as its had in a long time, but if the Commodores want to be successful, they’re going to need the leadership of Toye to help them get through the close games and the grueling SEC schedule.